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The ongoing NFT boom: Can supply of nonfungibles outweigh demand?

by Coy Buckley

Why do classic NFTs from 2017 continue to trade for high prices, and will new projects be as successful, even if NFTs lose value over time?

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The ongoing NFT boom: Can supply of nonfungibles outweigh demand?

Nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, have taken the cryptocurrency sector by storm in 2021. The growing interest in these digital collectibles resulted in record-breaking trading volumes during the month of August, with individual NFT sales exceeding more than $1 million dollars on a regular basis. 

Yet with so many NFTs currently on the market, it can be difficult to determine which one-of-a-kind collectibles are worth the high prices. It’s also important to point out that although NFTs are going mainstream, they are directly tied to the cryptocurrency ecosystem and, therefore, are prone to market volatility.

For instance, data shows that the total volume of NFTs traded on leading marketplaces declined at the beginning of September, around the same time Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below the $43,000 mark.

Uncovering the value behind highly sought-after NFTs

Although NFT trading volume has continued to deflate this month, highly sought-after projects such as CryptoPunks and EtherRocks are still seeing high-priced sales. While these were both some of the first pieces of art to be featured on the Ethereum blockchain, Andrew, founding chief marketing officer of stablecoin project Reserve.org, told Cointelegraph that he believes EtherRocks, in particular, will continue to rise in value due to the fact that only 100 were created. “Punks, Rocks and Kittens are all classic 2017 ‘art’ of Ethereum crypto. However, there are thousands of kittens and punks and only 100 rocks.”

Echoing Andrew, Snowfro, founder of the NFT art platform Art Blocks, told Cointelegraph that, in general, CryptoPunks operate independently from the overall market. “There are only 10,000 of them, and in the end, it’s clear that more than 10,000 people want to own one, so there will likely always be strong interest in Punks,” they said.

Due to the limited amount of CryptoPunks and EtherRocks on the market, the owners of these NFTs may also be more hesitant to sell. According to Andrew, EtherRock owners will most likely never sell simply because they want to be a part of crypto history: “One of the reasons Van Gogh pieces are so highly valued is because of their historical significance. The same could possibly be said of the historical significance of an EtherRock.” In turn, Andrew explained that EtherRock NFT holders instantly become part of an exclusive club, which also triggers astronomical prices for EtherRocks: “The ultimate logic for me is that in the next three to 30 years, NFTs created in 2017 will be extremely treasured. Almost like ancient art.”

Speaking from experience, Fungibles, CEO of Greenleaf Ventures, told Cointelegraph that he bought his EtherRock after receiving a personal message from social media guru Gary Vaynerchuk about the project:

“At the time, there were only three rocks left selling for 8.5 ETH each. I had a good feeling about the project because it was from 2017, and there were only 100 rocks ever created. I pulled the trigger and then sent out a tweet about why I purchased a $24,000 rock.”

In addition to the rarity and history behind the project, Fungibles mentioned that EtherRocks also make for the perfect meme: “If this project takes off, it shows that there is something beautiful about something so horrible looking that could eventually go to zero. This makes for the perfect meme and collectible.” 

Fungibles also pointed out that some of the most sought-after NFTs today also provide owners with access. Specifically speaking, he explained that owning an EtherRock provides individuals with access to exclusive gatherings around the world while also allowing this group to vote on specific things that can help move the value of EtherRocks up over time: “Communities are coming together around this token, which means gaining access to certain things. For me, this is a long-term investment.”

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and SALT, further told Cointelegraph that SkyBridge just announced the launch of Flatter, an NFT platform that combines exclusive experiences with sought-after collectibles. According to Scaramucci, Flatter aims to expose traditional collectors to a broader market where they can experience digital art and experiences in a unique and exciting way: “Flatter NFT owners will have access to a community that includes shared experiences, events, early and exclusive access to happenings.”

Although the platform was just launched, Flatter could potentially showcase the different possibilities offered by NFTs to traditional investors, especially as established art collectors begin to enter the NFT sector. Speaking on the NFT panel during SkyBridge’s annual SALT conference, Noah Davis, specialist and head of digital art and online sales at Christie’s, mentioned that many established art collectors partook in Christie’s Andy Warhol NFT auction in May this year. Davis noted that three out of five of these collectibles went to blue-chip art buyers, pointing out that there’s a shift toward NFTs occurring in the real world.

Too much supply, but not enough demand?

While highly sought-after NFTs may have certain characteristics, an influx of new NFTs continues to flood the cryptocurrency market daily. But even if these NFTs boast rarity, unique features and accessibility, the question as to whether or not too much supply will exceed demand remains. Moreover, if this is the case, NFTs are bound to lose value over time.

Jason Lau, chief operating officer of cryptocurrency exchange Okcoin, told Cointelegraph that NFTs can ultimately be created by anyone with internet access but that a much smaller population is interested in owning them:

“Eventually, supply will outweigh demand. This is very much like any other creator-based economy. For NFTs, we are still in an early stage, and a lot of exploration is being done by both creators and owners — how we eventually reach equilibrium remains to be seen.”

Snowfro has a different opinion on the matter, though, noting that “too much supply” is a counterintuitive concept when you have hundreds of artists wanting to showcase their work in a way that has never existed before.

Related: Novi-FT? Facebook’s NFT support may not drive crypto adoption

In terms of value lost over time, Lau pointed out that there are a lot of parallels between NFTs and traditional art. As a result of supply potentially outweighing demand, he believes that some NFTs will inevitably lose value, while others will accrue in value as new creators and experiences rise in popularity.

Santiago Roel Santos, a decentralized finance investor, further told Cointelegraph that although not all NFTs will hold their value, he does expect to see the next Picasso emerge from this movement: “At this point, every major artist, creator and studio is thinking about NFTs and have a strategy.” But even if value is lost, Fungibles remains optimistic:

“There will be a bear market, and certain NFTs will be less than they are today, but this will also enable new buyers to come in and for EtherRocks to change hands. I think there will always be a market regardless of the price.”

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Due to the limited amount of CryptoPunks and EtherRocks on the market, the owners of these NFTs may also be more hesitant to sell. According to Andrew, EtherRock owners will most likely never sell simply because they want to be a part of crypto history: “One of the reasons Van Gogh pieces are so highly valued is because of their historical significance. The same could possibly be said of the historical significance of an EtherRock.” In turn, Andrew explained that EtherRock NFT holders instantly become part of an exclusive club, which also triggers astronomical prices for EtherRocks: “The ultimate logic for me is that in the next three to 30 years, NFTs created in 2017 will be extremely treasured. Almost like ancient art.”

Speaking from experience, Fungibles, CEO of Greenleaf Ventures, told Cointelegraph that he bought his EtherRock after receiving a personal message from social media guru Gary Vaynerchuk about the project:

“At the time, there were only three rocks left selling for 8.5 ETH each. I had a good feeling about the project because it was from 2017, and there were only 100 rocks ever created. I pulled the trigger and then sent out a tweet about why I purchased a $24,000 rock.”

In addition to the rarity and history behind the project, Fungibles mentioned that EtherRocks also make for the perfect meme: “If this project takes off, it shows that there is something beautiful about something so horrible looking that could eventually go to zero. This makes for the perfect meme and collectible.” 

Fungibles also pointed out that some of the most sought-after NFTs today also provide owners with access. Specifically speaking, he explained that owning an EtherRock provides individuals with access to exclusive gatherings around the world while also allowing this group to vote on specific things that can help move the value of EtherRocks up over time: “Communities are coming together around this token, which means gaining access to certain things. For me, this is a long-term investment.”

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and SALT, further told Cointelegraph that SkyBridge just announced the launch of Flatter, an NFT platform that combines exclusive experiences with sought-after collectibles. According to Scaramucci, Flatter aims to expose traditional collectors to a broader market where they can experience digital art and experiences in a unique and exciting way: “Flatter NFT owners will have access to a community that includes shared experiences, events, early and exclusive access to happenings.”

Although the platform was just launched, Flatter could potentially showcase the different possibilities offered by NFTs to traditional investors, especially as established art collectors begin to enter the NFT sector. Speaking on the NFT panel during SkyBridge’s annual SALT conference, Noah Davis, specialist and head of digital art and online sales at Christie’s, mentioned that many established art collectors partook in Christie’s Andy Warhol NFT auction in May this year. Davis noted that three out of five of these collectibles went to blue-chip art buyers, pointing out that there’s a shift toward NFTs occurring in the real world.

Too much supply, but not enough demand?

While highly sought-after NFTs may have certain characteristics, an influx of new NFTs continues to flood the cryptocurrency market daily. But even if these NFTs boast rarity, unique features and accessibility, the question as to whether or not too much supply will exceed demand remains. Moreover, if this is the case, NFTs are bound to lose value over time.

Jason Lau, chief operating officer of cryptocurrency exchange Okcoin, told Cointelegraph that NFTs can ultimately be created by anyone with internet access but that a much smaller population is interested in owning them:

“Eventually, supply will outweigh demand. This is very much like any other creator-based economy. For NFTs, we are still in an early stage, and a lot of exploration is being done by both creators and owners — how we eventually reach equilibrium remains to be seen.”

Snowfro has a different opinion on the matter, though, noting that “too much supply” is a counterintuitive concept when you have hundreds of artists wanting to showcase their work in a way that has never existed before.

Related: Novi-FT? Facebook’s NFT support may not drive crypto adoption

In terms of value lost over time, Lau pointed out that there are a lot of parallels between NFTs and traditional art. As a result of supply potentially outweighing demand, he believes that some NFTs will inevitably lose value, while others will accrue in value as new creators and experiences rise in popularity.

Santiago Roel Santos, a decentralized finance investor, further told Cointelegraph that although not all NFTs will hold their value, he does expect to see the next Picasso emerge from this movement: “At this point, every major artist, creator and studio is thinking about NFTs and have a strategy.” But even if value is lost, Fungibles remains optimistic:

“There will be a bear market, and certain NFTs will be less than they are today, but this will also enable new buyers to come in and for EtherRocks to change hands. 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Fall is traditionally the open season for United States financial regulators. The thicket of news coming out of Capitol Hill, federal courts and various regulatory agencies can feel overwhelming around this time, especially for those of us residing outside of these venerable institutions’ purview. It is also clear that the outcomes of these legal battles will have tremendous effects on crypto markets, adoption and, generally, the relationship between state power and the industry worldwide. But that is not the only reason for anyone interested in how the old world adapts to digital finance to follow U.S. developments closely.

Gensler of the Hill

Security and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler appeared in front of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs last week. During the hearing, we didn’t get much clarity on how Gensler wants to handle stablecoins beyond his opinion that many of them “might well be securities.”

It was good to at least see some senators, such as Pat Toomey, willing to call Gensler out for inconsistencies and omissions in his argumentation. What was worrisome was seeing mostly Republicans on the stop-stifling-innovation side and mostly Democrats on the stricter-investor-protection side (despite all the laughs and memes that Senator Warren’s Ethereum fees spiel produced). Crypto becoming yet another partisan issue is a nightmare scenario — luckily, it does not seem to be that way outside of this particular Senate hearing yet.

CFTC, renewed

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has historically been more lenient toward the corner of the crypto space that falls under its jurisdiction, will soon have a permanent chairman and two new commissioners. All three nominees — the acting chairman who spoke amply in favor of innovation, a legal scholar specializing in digital finance, and another with a strong enforcement background — seem to have the potential to be a force for good for crypto, but let’s not get too excited just yet.

Crypto goes political

The rest of the world keeps supplying major policy developments for digital assets. Cuba recognized cryptocurrency and now allows its use as a remittance and investment vehicle. Over in El Salvador, President Nayib Bukele’s opponents made a political statement by setting a crypto kiosk ablaze. In South Korea, the majority party clashed with the finance minister over a controversial crypto tax code, attempting to postpone its implementation. Notice a common theme? All over the world, cryptocurrency-related issues are part of political agendas.

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The term “Ethereum killer” is beginning to pick up the pace once again in the cryptocurrency markets as the native tokens of several competing blockchain networks are posting significant gains during September. For any alternative network to be considered as a part of this category, it needs to have one essential feature that serves as the backbone of the Ethereum network: smart contracts.

Keeping this in mind, the most prominent blockchain networks by market capitalization that usually come under this purview are Cardano (ADA), Solana (SOL), Binance Smart Chain (BSC), Polkadot (DOT), and Terra(LUNA). The native tokens of these networks have been on an absolute tear this year. Most recently, Solana (SOL) has been in the spotlight after the bulls carrying its rally continued even in the face of a marketwide selloff on Sept. 8 that brought Bitcoin back below the $50,000 mark.

SOL has more than doubled in price over the last 30 days but has since declined to trade around the $155 mark. The token has posted over 300% gains over the last 90 days with an extraordinary 7,871.16% gains year-to-date (YTD). In comparison, these gains dwarf ETH’s 63.77% 90-day gains and 385.36% YTD gains. Ethereum's market capitalization is currently at around $400 billion which is nearly 9 times SOL’s $47 billion market cap.

Ethereum killer tokens post gains

Several networks have shown promising prospects and gains. Cardano recently completed its Alonzo hard fork that launched Plutus-powered smart contracts on the network that would allow it to host decentralized finance (DeFi) and Web 3.0 applications. Even though its native token, ADA, showed a lackluster response to this milestone in the project’s roadmap, it has still experienced a substantial rise this year. ADA trades at around $2.40, posting 74.16% gains in the last 90 days and 1,273.86% gains YTD.

Marie Tatibouet, chief marketing officer at Gate.io — a cryptocurrency exchange — outlined to Cointelegraph the twofold reasons that started the Ethereum killer movement. Speaking about the network’s lack of scalability, she said, “As things stand, Ethereum is particularly slow and can only do 15-25 transactions per second with very low throughput.”

She further mentioned how high demand and low throughput lead to the next reason, bloated transaction fees that “are a bit of control.” This could go on to have an impact on the ongoing boom seen in the nonfungible token (NFT) market. She said, “Do you really want to pay half an ETH in gas fees just to mint a JPEG?”

On this, Solana Labs spokesperson told Cointelegraph, “Minting an NFT at peak levels can be very costly. Recently, a minting fee hit 3 ETH, which is more expensive than many actual NFTs. Solana offers faster speeds and lower prices than Ethereum, which is really what it comes down to with market shares.”

Another Ethereum killer prospect whose token has witnessed an outstanding performance this year is Terra. Its native token LUNA posted over 500% gains in the last 90 days and 5,477% gains YTD, and is currently trading at around $36.

Such significant gains often put a token into the spotlight due to its underlying platform and technology getting more users and increasing adoption rates. Cointelegraph spoke with Lex Sokolin, global fintech co-head and head economist at ConSensys — a blockchain technology company backing Ethereum's infrastructure — who stated:

“DeFi protocols are applications that grow with the number of users and capital. It is likely that DeFi will be multichain and multipurpose, though the largest amount of liquidity will remain secured by Ethereum. However, expanding and incorporating other capital sources through bridges and exchanges is a net good for the ecosystem.”

Ethereum is currently in an important stage of its transformation to Ethereum 2.0 (Eth2) — an entirely proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain after undergoing the London hard fork that brought in crucial updates like the EIP-1559 — the aftermath of which is still highly discussed in the cryptocurrency community. This Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) that was agreed upon by the developers, and miners entailed a change in the transaction pricing mechanism for the network.

The change mainly impacted the inflation rate of the tokens and the miner’s revenues since a portion of gas fees are now being burned following the upgrade. According to data, over 311,300 ETH tokens have been burned, with a notional value of nearly $1.1 billion. The current burn rate is 2.7 million ETH tokens per year, which would put the inflation rate at 2.3% with the issuance of 5.3 million tokens per year.

Ethereum is not the only blockchain network to implement this kind of pricing mechanism, as Solana burns 50% of its transaction fees to regulate the supply of the SOL token. The Solana Labs spokesperson further said: “The Ethereum London upgrade changed miner incentives. Some believed that this would increase the MEV and there have been solutions launched to address this, but the cost of transactions on Ethereum continues to provide a barrier to entry.”

On-chain data says Ethereum is still king

Even though the native tokens of these “Ethereum killer” networks have posted impressive gains, a closer look at the on-chain data reveals that Ethereum’s utilization and volumes still dwarf the entirety of the remaining smart contract platform market.

Ethereum currently has a market capitalization of over $400 billion, which is significantly higher than the rest of the market. The closest network in terms of market cap is Cardano, with a $76 billion market capitalization, not even 20% as that of Ethereum.

According to data by DappRadar, the total volume locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols built on the Ethereum blockchain is just over $100 billion. In terms of utilization, the blockchain network that ranks second is the Binance Smart Chain (BSC) with a TVL of $18 billion, less than 20% of Ethereum’s TVL in DeFi.

BSC ecosystem coordinator at Binance cryptocurrency exchange Samy Karim spoke to Cointelegraph about the possibilities of Ethereum retaining its market share once the transition to Eth2 is complete:

“It has to be quick, efficient and decentralized at the same time for DeFi to attain mass adoption. Ethereum is one of the first smart contract compatible chains that can leverage its pre-existing communities to grow once Eth2 is out, but it’s next to impossible to forecast its potential market share on the basis of its probable upgrade.”

Currently, Ethereum leads the market in the NFT space as well with all the biggest NFT platforms, OpenSea, CryptoPunks, Axie Infinity, Rarible and Decentraland all being built on Ethereum. However, the whole NFT market has often been classified as a bubble by naysayers with the Chinese Communist Party becoming the latest addition when it warned the Chinese citizens about digital collectibles, and, yet, the market continues to expand.

Sokolin has voiced his disagreement on this perspective, saying: “We disagree with the categorization of the NFT ecosystem as a bubble — it is a reconfiguration of digital media structure. [...] NFTs offer a different path and having a meaningful economic system is unlocking a new business model.”

However, the impact of this “bubble” even going “bust” is limited for Ethereum. In Tatibouet’s opinion, “NFTs or not, Ethereum is still the market leader when it comes to smart contract platforms. The NFT market, however, has helped the competitors in gaining an advantage over their peers.”

As Ethereum continues to build momentum toward its final transition to a PoS blockchain, the confidence that the financial markets are showing in its potential is slowly rising. A report by the British multinational bank, Standard Chartered Bank, discussed the real-world use cases of the blockchain network and accordingly valued ETH “structurally” between $26,000 and $35,000. As of now, ETH continues to show bullish trading patterns such as cup and handle and even has the prospect of hitting $6,500 in the coming few months.

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On Sept. 14, United States President Joe Biden revealed his picks to fill two vacant seats at the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In addition, the president nominated Rostin Behnam, who has run the derivatives regulator as acting chairman since January, to assume the office on the permanent basis.

The appointments are unlikely to face serious obstacles on their way to confirmation, as nominees will have to secure a simple majority vote in a Senate currently controlled by Democrats. What can the crypto industry expect of the CFTC if Behnam assumes permanent chairmanship and Kristin Johnson and Christy Goldsmith Romero join the agency as commissioners?

Bringing the commission up to strength

In 2015, the CFTC came forward and defined Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital currencies as commodities under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act, joining the ranks of U.S. government agencies engaged in the regulation of the cryptocurrency space. The agency also asserted jurisdiction in cases when “a virtual currency is used in a derivatives contract, or if there is fraud or manipulation involving a virtual currency traded in interstate commerce.”

The CFTC, which is designed to be five-strong when fully staffed, has been down to acting chairman and two commissioners this year. Heath Tarbert, the former chairman, departed in March, and Brian Quintenz stepped down at the end of August. Furthermore, Dan Berkovitz, one of the remaining commissioners, has announced his intention to leave on Oct. 15.

Nominations come amid the Biden administration being criticized for taking its time to fill vacant positions in several key regulatory agencies, including the CFTC. If confirmed, the new additions to the agency will give Democrats a 3-1 majority on the panel.

From acting to permanent chairman

Acting Chairman Behnam has been with the CFTC since July 2017 when he had been sworn in as a commissioner. Serving under the crypto-friendly Chairman Giancarlo, Behnam has spoken favorably of digital currencies and their transformative potential on several occasions.

For one, speaking at a regulatory summit in 2018, Behnam opined that cryptocurrencies — or virtual currencies in the CFTC parlance — were set to become “part of the economic practices of any country, anywhere,” aptly observing that “some places, small economies, may become dependent on virtual assets for survival.” Finally, Behnam acknowledged limits to regulators’ reach if digital currencies continue to proliferate:

“These currencies will be outside traditional monetary intermediaries, like government, banks, investors, ministries, or international organizations.\"

More recently, the acting CFTC boss talked about the need for maintaining a constructive conversation between policymakers and innovators in the field of financial technology and how it is urgent for keeping U.S. innovation at home. In remarks in March 2020 regarding a crypto-related Commission action, Behnam stated:

“I have long advocated for a more inclusive conversation regarding the advent of financial technology, believing that a thorough examination and discussion of the technology within our current legal and regulatory framework will best serve technologists, market participants, and customers.”

It sounds like what the industry is longing for, doesn’t it? Yet, it would be premature to base expectations of the derivatives regulator’s future policies on these declarations alone. After all, like any U.S. financial regulator whose statutory goal is market participants’ protection in the first place, the CFTC can always be expected to err on the side of caution when innovation is perceived to be at odds with consumer safety.

Commenting on the recent settlement between BitMEX with both the CFTC and FinCEN, Behnam noted: “The CFTC will take prompt action when activities impacting CFTC jurisdictional markets raise customer and consumer protection concerns.”

New commissioners

Biden’s two picks for the vacant CFTC commissioner seats are Emory University law professor Kristin Johnson and Christy Goldsmith Romero, the current special inspector general of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, a federal law enforcement agency that deals with financial crimes related to the U.S. government’s bailout program.

Professor Kristin Johnson's recent work focuses on the implications of emerging financial technologies including distributed digital ledger technology (DLT) and artificial intelligence (AI) for financial regulation. Prior to her academic appointments at Emory and, before that, Tulane, she worked in corporate finance, most notably as assistant general counsel and vice president at JP Morgan.

In her capacity as the TARP Inspector General, Christy Goldsmith Romero investigates financial institution crime related to bailouts executed under the program. In this role, she works closely with the SEC, an agency where she previously served as senior counsel in the enforcement division.

Great expectations

On the surface, the trio appears to be a winning combination of an innovation-friendly chairman, a legal scholar with a deep understanding of cutting-edge financial technology and an expert financial crime investigator.

Daniel Davis, a partner at law firm Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP and former general counsel for the CFTC, believes that each of Biden’s picks has the potential to bring positive changes for crypto regulation. Acting Chairman Behnam, if he assumes the office permanently, will be in an excellent position to move the regulatory conversation forward.

Related: Slow to start: Crypto regulators lagging behind blockchain industry

In addition to that, Ms. Johnson and Ms. Goldsmith Romero each bring excellent crypto-related credentials to their potential roles as commissioners. Davis further noted regarding the two nominees:

“Both have taught law school courses related to crypto. Ms. Johnson has also written extensively on topics such as financial services regulation and how decentralized finance (DeFi) could fit within the current regulatory structure with some innovative ideas. One would expect that crypto-related issues would form an important part of their respective agendas if confirmed.”

In this light, it is indeed tempting to view the prospective CFTC reinforcements with optimism, but with some reservations. For one, as the example of the current SEC boss Gary Gensler shows, being knowledgeable about digital finance and teaching blockchain classes at a top university does not necessarily translate into becoming the crypto industry’s ally when the person assumes a high office at a regulatory agency.

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There was a lot of talk at SALT Conference 2021 about Solana Labs, the supersonic racer of layer-one blockchain networks. Not surprisingly, much of that conversation centered on speed — or, in network parlance, transactions per second (TPS).

If blockchain technology is ever to achieve mass adoption — 1 billion users, say — then it has to get faster, said Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of crypto exchange platform FTX, in a Monday morning panel session, adding, “You can’t have 1 billion people using a chain that has 10 transactions per second. It just doesn’t work.”

To put things in context: Credit card giant Visa’s payments system processes about 24,000 TPS, while Ethereum, the first smartchain-enabled blockchain network upon which most DeFi and NFT applications still run, does about 30 TPS, though that number could rise dramatically when Ethereum 2.0 launches in 2022.

Meanwhile, the Solana network was clocked at 50,000 TPS last year as founder and CEO Anatoly Yakovenko told Cointelegraph in an interview during SALT, though recently it was timed at 200,000 TPS by a third-party validator. “As the hardware gets better, capacity goes up,” he said.

Solana, with a workforce of 60 souls — all volunteers — has enjoyed explosive growth since its launch in March 2020. Today, it hosts more than 400 projects, including many nonfungible token (NFT) and decentralized finance (DeFi) projects. USD Coin (USDC), the No. 2 stablecoin by volume, is integrated natively on Solana, and it also hosts decentralized oracle network Chainlink, as well as decentralized derivatives exchange Serum, which FTX co-created. Solana’s market cap on Sept. 9 topped $62 billion.

A long-time proponent of Solana, Bankman-Fried believes that “it’s one of the few places in DeFi right now where you can see it scaling to 1 billion users. It’s not there right now. It probably has another factor of 50 to go or something. But that’s a lot better than a factor of 50,000.”

“You don’t have to pay them”

“We’re not super big,” Yakovenko told Cointelegraph when asked about the organization’s modest workforce. Like Bitcoin and many other decentralized organizations, the employees who maintain and expand the network are working pro bono. Many harbor entrepreneurial ambitions.

“They may have quit their job at Google, or whatever,” explained Yakovenko. “They are going to build a company. It’s going to be a Web 3.0 application. Maybe it’s financial, maybe it’s art-based. They will raise capital and build it on Solana. Solana is effectively that layer that is supplying financial infrastructure.” Moreover, “You don’t have to pay them,” Yakovenko continued. “They do it on their own.” What about himself? Is he an unpaid volunteer too?

“From the start, the foundation supplied a grant and some tokens to develop the software, to keep improving it.[...] We’re basically funding ourselves through that.”

Solana was built for speed, Yakovenko said, and what makes it different from other proof-of-stake (PoS) networks is that Solana “is optimized for a specific use case: online central limit order book (CLOB),” he said — i.e., a trading method used by exchanges that matches bids with offers. Because it was designed for market makers who need to submit millions of transactions per day, the Solana network must be “really, really fast and really, really cheap.”

To this last point, the average cost of a network transaction is $0.00025, according to the Solana website. On Thursday, Sept. 16, it was reporting about 2,000 live transactions per second. It claims to be “the fastest blockchain in the world.”

Of course, it’s not just market makers who can use the network. “It’s like Linux” — the popular open-source operating system used by many web servers — “a general-purpose operating system that has this interesting property: It can’t be shut down, and it can’t be censored,” Yakovenko said.

Jeremy Allaire, CEO of Circle — the principal operator of USDC stablecoin — who was a participant on the SALT panel with Bankman-Fried, Yakovenko, and others, said USDC can complete transactions on the Solana network in a matter of milliseconds. In the future, payments are going to be “a commodity-free service on the internet,” costing nothing, Allaire predicted — like sending an email today.

The network has taken some unexpected turns, too. One of “the surprising things we’ve seen are NFTs for art,” said Yakovenko. The network, like Ethereum, is smart-contract enabled, and at the beginning, “you’d think you’re going to put things like real estate on the network” — because smart contracts are really good at enforcing agreement on a global scale. What they found, though, is that real estate “is really hard to do because there’s so much legal overhead” attached to it.

On the other hand, attaching smart contracts to NFTs can enable artists to receive revenues from their secondary art sales. “So, when I initially sell my artwork to you, and you sell it to Austin [i.e., someone else], I get some percentage of that secondary sale.” That’s impossible to do in the physical art world where “you have massive amounts of legal infrastructure” — e.g., copyrights on a global scale — “but here, a few thousand lines of code does it,” he told Cointelegraph.

Security or speed — but not both

Still, even if it’s as useful as a general-purpose operating system, Solana can’t be all things to all people. A network has to specialize to some degree. “There are Pareto efficiency tradeoffs,” said Yakovenko. “If I optimize for hash power security, that means I can’t have a lot of TPS.” You have to pick one or the other — i.e., either security or speed. Different parties pick the thing they’re best in. “We’re picking one thing. Bitcoin is picking their thing. Ethereum their thing.”

When asked to explain Solana’s dramatic speed edge over crypto’s two largest networks — Bitcoin and Ethereum — he said their proof-of-work networks “are focused on maximizing electricity to secure the network,” while with next-generation PoS networks like Solana, “the security comes from cryptography.”

Still, the speed and cost gaps are striking, and some have even called Solana an “Ethereum killer.” Should the world’s largest programmable — i.e., smart contract-enabled — blockchain network be concerned?

“The Ethereum community does not need to be worried, but rather excited about new capital and users entering the space,” as Lex Sokolin, head economist at Ethereum-based software company ConsenSys, told Cointelegraph, further noting, “Ethereum continues to lead on DeFi, NFTs, developer community and users, and is extending itself through L2s and protocols like Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism, Fantom, BSC and others.” On the matter of the Pareto efficiency tradeoffs, Sokolin added:

“Other chains may indeed lean into other types of functionality and risk/reward trade-offs. We believe that for a global financial system to meaningfully use a blockchain, security and trust are paramount and that Ethereum’s years of successful operation support this claim.”

Along these lines, Ethereum may have drawn some vindication this week following the reports of Solana’s denial-of-service disruption, which arguably touches on the security versus speed issue since the likes of Solana and Arbitrum were unable to stay online, while Ethereum remained unaffected.

Edward Moya, a senior market analyst for the Americas at multi-asset trading platform Oanda, told Cointelegraph, “Solana is a blockchain that could become the favorite for decentralized applications since it supposedly could scale up to take on the credit card giants.” Moreover, Solana’s latest $314-million funding round “likely secured its lead position in winning the DeFi race.”

Will Google be disrupted?

Meanwhile, when it comes to disruption, Yakovenko isn’t stopping with banks — he’s gunning for the tech giants: “I come from Silicon Valley, so my sights are on the Googles, Facebooks, Amazons.” Blockchain technology “is going to be pretty disruptive to those people. But those guys are smart. They’ll probably switch their technologies to run on top of crypto networks.” Banks aren’t necessarily finished, either, according to him:

“I don’t think banks are going to go away at all. They will realize these [DeFi] tools reduce risk, improve compliance, make things smoother, cheaper, and faster — and they will use them. Because, at the end of the day, this is just a bunch of code and technology.”

Overall, blockchain adoption is still in its infancy, in Yakovenko’s view. “There are what — maybe 10 million true users of crypto. Not just holders, but people who have self-custody of their keys.” When were there only 10 million people browsing the internet — 1996, maybe? “That’s where blockchain is now.”

Related: Across the seven seas: Retail, institutional investors keen on Bitcoin

If blockchain is a race, Moya told Cointelegraph, then “Ethereum has a two-year head start and has already secured several key partnerships, but in the end, if Solana can outperform it, Ethereum should be nervous. Solana, however, will have growing pains,” as the recent “resource exhaustion” example made clear.

Bankman-Fried, for his part, cast the upstart blockchain network in almost Arthurian-legend terms, telling the SALT convention:

“One of the founding principles of Solana is that it gets better over time, that it gets better with Moore’s law, that it has the ambition to service billions of users with millions of transactions per second — which is really the Holy Grail of what DeFi can become.” \n\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/72850.a38294da-e140-4fae-950b-ea7ddda53d77.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:16292,shares:94,tags:[{id:fH,slug:fb,title:hm,url:fc},{id:"490",slug:"smart-contracts",title:"Smart Contracts",url:"/tags/smart-contracts"},{id:"9415",slug:"defi",title:hn,url:ho},{id:l_,slug:l$,title:ma,url:mb}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=72850regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:fz,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"alt-winds-of-change-what-an-altcoin-season-would-mean-for-crypto",url:lw,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/alt-winds-of-change-what-an-altcoin-season-would-mean-for-crypto",title:gZ,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:ly,datePublished:"2021-09-16",dateHuman:"Sep 16, 2021",humanDateTime:"2021-09-16 16:14",dateISOFull:"2021-09-16T15:14:00+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:y,month:t,day:hd,hour:ej,minute:at,second:f,millisecond:f},categorySlug:au,categoryUrl:ab,categoryName:E,authorName:"Anupam Varshney",authorUrl:"/authors/anupam-varshney",authorAvatar:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/d19e1afefbeb0ebb540ead5d5ecd29b9.jpg",previewText:lx,twitterLeadText:"Some altcoins are reporting immense gains, but this possible alt season could mean many things for the blockchain industry",badgeSlug:ek,badgeName:E,fullText:"

A new alt season is here — at least, according to some crypto industry commentators. Over the last month, altcoins — aka cryptocurrencies that aren’t Bitcoin (BTC) — have surged in price, with projects such as Solana, Cardano and Polkadot seeing their tokens triple in value. However, though people are screaming “alt season” with an air of familiarity, the industry is still very much exploring uncharted territory.

The Cointelegraph Markets Pro alt season indicator states that the industry is in the midst of an alt season, showing a 32% inclination. While The Altseason Index, which defines the alt season as a period of 90 days where 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin, says it isn’t an alt season just yet. But if the last few weeks are anything to go by, the altcoin market is just getting started, and it’s already proving its desire to impress.

One theory behind why an alt season is imminent is that the general sentiment around Bitcoin has reached a solid footing. Outflows from Bitcoin are funding more altcoin projects, resulting in newly launched tokens reporting impressive growth. However, could there be much more to the story than that?

Wen alt season?

Alt seasons can be both good and bad for the crypto economy, being a sort of necessary evil in the space. On the one hand, they are a sign of health, indicating new money flows into the market and causing valuations to surge. However, after a while, speculation tends to outpace the utility of these tokens, causing steep market corrections and immense losses for speculators.

Over the last few years, the cryptocurrency and digital assets space has grown drastically, but according to Hunain Naseer, senior analyst at OKEx Insights, not much is new this time around. “We’re witnessing Ethereum breaking out against BTC and starting to outperform the market leader. The same happened in previous alt seasons,” he said, adding, “ETH is leading a market-wide surge, and as long as it remains strong, the trend can continue till the end of the year.

According to Naseer, the recent altcoin rally is being fuelled by myriad factors, including the recent nonfungible token boom (especially in August), which reaffirmed the market’s belief in the speculative value of digital assets. The recent gust of positive news has also generated renewed market optimism, with announcements for Ethereum’s London hard fork, the launch of smart contracts on Cardano, and cross-chain bridges on Cosmos.

The shift from the more traditional “blue chip” investments in the space like Bitcoin and Ethereum could also reflect the market’s current risk-on sentiment, meaning investors are increasing their risk tolerance due to a more buoyant market outlook. Altcoins are naturally more volatile than Bitcoin owing to their smaller market capitalizations and lower liquidity, but while this means they can quite quickly render investments worthless, they also have the potential for enormous gains.

The stablecoin market capitalization has grown from $36 billion in January to over $115 billion in mid-September, with Tether’s (USDT) supply tripling over the period. Stablecoins, though not exactly altcoins, have become the primary means of value transfer on blockchain networks, and this expansion is a decent representation of decentralized finance’s (DeFi) growing influence on the space.

A well-diversified portfolio can protect investors from risk while ensuring they get in on some of the rallying action. This makes altcoins as a whole rather attractive as an investment class, but all this money has to come from somewhere. With flows into altcoins on the rise, a major BTC sell-off might be in the cards, but institutions seem to be more bullish about Bitcoin than ever before.

According to Rachel Lin, co-founder and CEO of decentralized derivatives exchange SynFutures, Bitcoin isn’t going to crash — it’s just lagging in performance: “I expect the general crypto market to continue to be in the uptrend over the next few months, especially with the Fed remaining dovish and new funds and institutional investors entering the market.”

Neither Bitcoin nor altcoin

One major difference between previous alt seasons and this one is how dominant Ether (ETH) has become. Bitcoin occupied almost 70% of the cryptocurrency market capitalization at the start of the year, while Ether commanded less than 13%. As of Thursday, Ether represents almost 19% of the market, while Bitcoin’s dominance has dropped to below 41%.

DeFi has attracted more institutional investors to the space than anything before it, and this is slowly bringing more legitimacy and awareness to the space. “Even with the many competitors in the space and its network congestion, Ethereum will continue to grow,” said Michael Tzezailidis, director of public relations at Telos — a Web 3.0 blockchain platform — adding, “Developers are literally pouring into the space.”

Many DeFi projects run on the Ethereum network, and while the competition is mounting, it doesn’t appear to be losing steam any time soon. The altcoin market has grown from $220 billion to $1.35 trillion this year alone — some 600% increase in just nine months — with Ethereum playing a significant role. Some don’t even consider ETH an altcoin anymore, and this begs the question: Will other altcoins eventually drop the label as they grow above a certain threshold?

For quite a while now, Bitcoin’s main value proposition has been its utility as a store of value and its deflationary supply, but though BTC is bound to continue receiving attention from investors, the lower market capitalizations of altcoins make for grander short-term returns. Furthermore, it’s more likely that institutional capital will find its way to altcoins with smaller total market capitalization during an alt season.

Ultimately, Ethereum’s move to proof-of-stake (PoS) and protocol updates to deflate its supply could make ETH a genuine contender for the top spot. Investors could be betting on a more gentle inflation curve for ETH and a stronger ecosystem, making it the benchmark asset for other altcoins to follow or compete against.

‘Tis the season?

As people around the globe continue to learn about cryptocurrencies and their ability to solve global issues such as remittances and monetary efficiency, more capital is making its way into the digital assets space. “It’s all about education,” said Cabital CEO and co-founder Raymond Hsu. In recent years, digital assets have broken new ground, and with the smell of an alt season in the air, blockchain could be in for a more focused global approach to how it can better solve real-world issues.

According to Hsu, institutional investors will do what most retail investors do when initially exploring the cryptocurrency world: buy Bitcoin and later move into Ether. He said:

“After they become comfortable, they will begin looking into other projects that are tackling the more intricate challenges.”

Traditional financial institutions that opposed the concept of cryptocurrencies a year ago are now setting up trading desks and offering clients greater exposure to the digital assets space through all kinds of financial instruments. Terms like “Bitcoin” and “blockchain” are slowly becoming household names, and the general rising adoption could mean this alt season could produce more permanent effects.

Though DeFi appears to be thriving primarily on Ethereum, competing projects are setting the stage for the shared, interoperable decentralized framework for financial applications that blockchain will evolve into. While it may take some time for them to start hosting as many decentralized applications as Ethereum or even attain comparable levels of composability, competition almost always benefits consumers. In decentralized systems, everyone is a consumer, and more pressure from competition could accelerate the space’s already rapid growth.

Related: Are strong technicals enough to bring Bitcoin price to $100K in 2021?

Altcoins have grown immensely over the last two years, and as these projects continue to serve the needs of the blockchain space, either by cracking unsolved problems or improving existing solutions, this trend will likely maintain its trajectory.

The jury is still out on whether an alt season is imminen, but a glance at the markets shows stark similarities with past occurrences, and with the amount of positive news and innovative projects launched on the regular, this season could even run a little longer than expected.

\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/72788.975ac23a-4bce-412c-8da9-116235b1e171.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:8699,shares:az,tags:[{id:fH,slug:fb,title:hm,url:fc},{id:gL,slug:ft,title:Q,url:eU},{id:gM,slug:gN,title:gO,url:gP},{id:"9567",slug:"ethereum-price",title:"Ethereum Price",url:"/tags/ethereum-price"}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=72788regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:fA,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"are-strong-technicals-enough-to-bring-bitcoin-price-to-100k-in-2021",url:lz,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/are-strong-technicals-enough-to-bring-bitcoin-price-to-100k-in-2021",title:g_,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:lA,datePublished:me,dateHuman:mf,humanDateTime:"2021-09-14 14:43",dateISOFull:"2021-09-14T13:43:57+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:y,month:t,day:at,hour:Y,minute:43,second:mg,millisecond:f},categorySlug:au,categoryUrl:ab,categoryName:E,authorName:"Shiraz Jagati",authorUrl:"/authors/shiraz-jagati",authorAvatar:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/45ade5ad276d28c066a2064a5175d3a3.jpg",previewText:"Despite Bitcoin struggling mightily over the last week or so, a price target of $100,000 looks quite realistic for the digital asset.",twitterLeadText:" In comparison to its previous halving events of 2012 and 2016 — when Bitcoin’s price rose by 55x and 15x, respectively — the 2020 halving saw Bitcoin’s value rise by a meager 4x.",badgeSlug:ek,badgeName:E,fullText:"

After scaling up to a relative high of around $53,000 just over two weeks ago, it seemed as though Bitcoin (BTC) was well on its way to reclaiming its former all-time highs. However, the series of events that unfolded over the past week has seen the world’s largest cryptocurrency by total market capitalization lose nearly 13% of its value, with a single BTC currently trading near $45,800.

That said, the aforementioned volatility seems to have left Standard Chartered’s cryptocurrency research unit completely unfazed, with the analysts referring to Bitcoin’s most recent plunge as being a “false dip” while reiterating that a year-end target of $100,000 per BTC is still quite achievable for the flagship cryptocurrency.

The banking behemoth believes that Bitcoin will have hit $100,000 by “late 2021 or early 2022,” a move that will be accompanied by a huge spike in the value of Ether (ETH) as well. In fact, the research team pointed out that Ether is “structurally” valued at a year-end price point between $26,000 and $35,000, however, in order for that to happen, BTC must scale up to $175,000. 

Contributing factors

To get a better idea of whether a year-end projection of $100,000 per BTC is still feasible, Cointelegraph reached out to Ben Caselin, head of research and strategy at cryptocurrency exchange AAX. In his view, last Tuesday’s sell-off was a classic “sell the news” move, adding that he believes that an elaborate “bear trap” may have been at play. Caselin told Cointelegraph:

“I do expect $100K is still in play for Bitcoin this year — if anything, $100K would be underwhelming. In fact, if we follow PlanB’s stock-to-flow, we are still moving in the lower band, tracing ‘worst-case-scenario prices,’ which stood at $47K last month, $43K in September, and no less than $135K at the end of the year.”

He added that when it comes to Bitcoin, there is more value in looking at on-chain data rather than price technicals alone, as it allows users to gain a more high-resolution view of what’s actually happening across the network in real-time. 

Similarly, Tommy Schreiner, senior research analyst at crypto data provider TheTIE, told Cointelegraph that there is still a healthy chance that Bitcoin can reach $100,000 by the close of 2021:

“$100K seems as ridiculous perhaps as $50K did last year, but there are factors in play that don’t completely out-rule that scenario. The recent pullback was mostly a de-levering of the market, as a large percentage of leveraged open interest got wiped out and effectively reset all the bullish traders who were going YOLO.”

Schreiner further emphasized that despite all the economic turmoil across the globe, the United States Federal Reserve has shown no signs of stopping the money printer, something he believes to be a good sign for relatively riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. 

Furthermore, he highlighted that layer-one solutions such as Solana, Terra, Avalanche, Polygon and Fantom have continued to bring in new money into the global digital asset ecosystem in recent months, something that may also help spur BTC’s value. 

“NFTs [nonfungible tokens] are burning a huge amount of Ethereum every day, despite pricing out a lot of retail users. So if $100K seems ridiculous, perhaps look at how far crypto has come in just a year,” Schreiner said.

Nick Spanos, co-founder of Zap Protocol, believes that El Salvador’s recent acceptance of Bitcoin as legal tender has the digital currency well on its way to hitting the $100,000 mark by the end of the year. “Ether is also looking to hit $10,000 by then,” he said.

Some doubts for $100,000

Lennix Lai, financial markets director at cryptocurrency exchange OKEx, believes that while Bitcoin’s future seems poised for good things, that doesn’t necessarily mean the premier digital currency will close out the year at $100,000. He told Cointelegraph:

“I think we would see a short-term correction considering the loom on upcoming tapering from the U.S. Bitcoin is still very sensitive to the global money supply. Yet at the same time, the cryptocurrency is becoming a legitimate alternative asset class and everyone is looking for certain portions of asset allocation.” 

Lai did concede that if in the near-to-mid future even if 1% of the world’s total wealth were to flow into Bitcoin, then a price target of $100,000 per BTC could quite easily be attained.

Similarly, for Igneus Terrenus, head of communications at cryptocurrency exchange Bybit, the most compelling case for Bitcoin’s price reaching $100,000 this year remains the approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, which, in his opinion, will help open up the BTC market to new participants, such as retirement funds and wealth management products. 

“SEC punted the [BTC ETF] decision from Sept. 8 down to its new date of Nov. 14 — still within the calendar year of 2021. Anecdotal evidence shows that almost all wealth managers are asked by their clients about Bitcoin exposure. An ETF may just be the right vehicle for this to happen,” he told Cointelegraph. 

Bitcoin’s technicals look strong 

In spite of recent volatility, Bitcoin’s fundamentals seem to be quite strong at the moment. In this regard, Charles Edwards, creator of one of the world’s most well-known Bitcoin metrics, Hash Ribbons, recently claimed that as long as the flagship cryptocurrency is able to hover above its all-important $42,000 resistance zone, it will continue to remain in the green.

Late last year, Edwards predicted that by the end of 2021, Bitcoin could be looking at a price target of between $100,000 and $200,000. He said he would be “shocked” if Bitcoin didn’t hit $50,000 in 2021, a projection that came true after the currency reached its all-time high of $63,000 earlier this year.

In Edward’s view, one of the most important differences between this current rally and previous ones is the comparatively low level of retail interest that has been witnessed across the board. In fact, to reach a new all-time high this year, he believes Bitcoin will have to spend a considerable amount of time above the $50,000 range. “I think that would reengage more retail interest,” he said.

Even though $100,000 may not be in the cards for Edwards, he believes the market is slowly but surely closing in on the price point. However, in order for that to happen anytime in the coming three to four months, he believes that either renewed retail interest needs to be generated or a significant number of purchases from leading SP 500 companies like Tesla need to take place.

Looking ahead

When compared with previous events, the monetary effects of the 2020 halving have been quite tame up until now, with Bitcoin having only experienced a 4x increase in its value. In comparison, we can see that in the years following the 2012 and 2016 halvings, BTC’s value rose by 55x and 15x, respectively, thereby suggesting that a move to $100,000 could still be possible.

It will be interesting to see how the coming few days play out for the cryptocurrency market at large, especially as regulators all over the world continue to tighten their grips on this still-nascent industry.

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Too much is happening in the realm of crypto policy and regulation to leave the biggest developments of each week without a roundup and at least some conceptual reflection. Starting today, we are getting back to decoding crypto law and everything around it that is worth decoding.

Who’s next to follow El Salvador?

Eyeballs galore will be pinned to the great Salvadoran experiment from now on. People with PhDs in economics and applied statistics within central banks and research institutes will chase every accessible data point that could be remotely helpful in making sense of the effects of Bitcoin’s adoption as legal tender.

Obviously, not many nation states are poised to follow suit in the foreseeable future, but there are plenty lessons to be learned for states on every step of the global financial food chain.

While the way various jurisdictions process the precedent of El Salvador heavily depends on where they stand in the incumbent monetary order, it has surely spurred virtually everyone’s thinking on crypto regulation and CBDC deployment, and legalizing cryptocurrency payments.

Regulators behaving sketchy

Much of Coinbase’s chagrin seems to boil down to the fact that the SEC’s scrutiny fell on them rather than competitors who’d had similar lending products operating for months. There is case to be made, however, that for the industry it could be a good thing if the precedent-setting clash on the matter of crypto lending programs takes place between the SEC and Coinbase.

Diem struggles, digital euro doing fine

Facebook reportedly continues the lobbying effort to advance its longstanding plan of launching a private stablecoin, Diem. The effort, however, faces powerful opposition among officials in Treasury and Congress.

To read the full version of this newsletter, subscribe to our mailing list.

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On Sept. 7, in a historic first, the small Central American nation of El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as legal tender.

The true significance of this day for how people all around the world exchange value and what meaning they ascribe to the concept of money will take some time to reify and be fully understood. Yet, what is already clear is that September 2021 will be up there next to January 2009 in the history books of the digitization of finance.

Surrounded by controversy, protests, bumpy infrastructure rollout — how else? — but also the joy and optimism of millions globally who look at this great experiment with hope, the Bitcoin Day marked the first instance of a sovereign state making a decentralized digital asset its national currency. Was it a success, after all?

Politics in the background

A nation of under 7 million, El Salvador has long waived its claim for monetary sovereignty. In 2001, it ditched the colón, its national currency in use for more than a century, in favor of the United States dollar. The move made a lot of practical sense since the share of remittances — a good chunk of them coming from U.S.-based Salvadorans — in the country’s gross domestic product exceeded 16% at peak points.

At that time, the move by then-president Francisco Flores Pérez sparked protests and was condemned by detractors who claimed it was undemocratic and allegedly benefitted the bankers and the rich.

Two decades later, President Nayib Bukele — a forty-year-old who rose to power at the helm of a party called New Ideas — added another chapter to El Salvador’s monetary saga — this time, supplementing a foreign currency circulating in the country with one unhemmed by borders.

Much like 20 years ago, there has been backlash concerning the Bitcoin Law. However, the same polls that show a lack of support for Bitcoin (BTC) as a new means of payment suggest that a large share of Salvadorans have a limited understanding of what it is and how it will affect their lives.

Furthermore, in many cases, resentment toward Bitcoin can be linked to resentment toward Bukele, who, despite robust approval ratings, remains a divisive figure whose alleged autocratic tendencies concern some international observers.

In sum, there are good reasons to believe that there is no powerful ideological opposition to the concept of decentralized finance in El Salvador, and whatever pushback currently exists will likely dissipate further down the adoption curve — if implementation proves to be an ultimate success.

Bustle on the ground

Meanwhile, the somewhat rushed launch of the payments infrastructure was, expectedly, far from seamless. The government-run Chivo wallet went down for several hours, and some retail workers reportedly didn’t know how to process BTC payments. Soon after the launch, the president himself took on the role of customer support, tweeting updates on the state of the wallet service.

Yet overall, according to the accounts of those who were there to witness El Salvador making its first steps as a Bitcoin nation, things started to smoothen soon after a choppy start. Bart Mol, founder and host of the Satoshi Radio podcast, tweeted along his journey from Chivo ATMs that didn’t work to successfully performing Lightning transactions to pay for pizza and coffee at separate retail locations.

The overall feeling, Mol concluded, was that of “witnessing history.”

International response

Institutions of the global financial system seem less excited. The International Monetary Fund has been passive-aggressive about El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law since it passed early this summer. Perhaps, if this experiment yields favorable results, the IMF and other global financial bodies will come around?

Some legal professionals are skeptical about this prospect. During a Discord “ask me anything” (AMA) session with Cointelegraph Markets Pro subscribers last week, Cointelegraph general counsel Zachary Kelman opined that global financial institutions are unlikely to ever get on board with Bitcoin as national currency:

“The stated reasons (environment, transparency) for opposing El Salvador’s adoption of BTC are not the real reasons, which is the threat crypto poses to the established global political order and banking system. So, I don’t think these international bodies would ever be widely supportive of Bitcoin.”

Other nation-states, however, are watching closely. Granted, El Salvador’s position as the region’s remittances leader, combined with its earlier experience in outsourcing the national money function to a foreign currency, makes for a rare combination. Most other nations have higher bars to clear even if they could muster political momentum for making a decentralized money legal tender.

Still, the potential favorable effects of El Salvador’s move could nudge other countries to consider Bitcoin as a payment infrastructure more seriously. Amanda Wick, chief of legal affairs at blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, told Cointelegraph that cryptocurrency is an ideal technology for remittances, and it is thus well-positioned to serve remittance-heavy economies:

“Many citizens [in El Salvador] do not have access to traditional financial services, and this could boost financial inclusion. These driving factors may provide insight into which countries may follow suit. We’ve found in our research that these are already popular use cases in countries across Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia, in particular.”

The reported acceleration of other countries’ central bank digital currency research programs, the push to define crypto’s legal status in Ukraine , and discussions to make cryptocurrency a legal alternative payment method in Panama can all be seen as carry-over effects of El Salvador’s bold initiative.

Related: Slow to start: Crypto regulators lagging behind blockchain industry

Evidently, not every nation-state is in a position to embrace Bitcoin as the national currency. But on Sept. 7, virtually everyone was prompted to reassess where they stand on the digital money map of the world.

Regardless of the outcome of the El Salvador experiment, the pioneering example of the Central American nation has already pushed cryptocurrency deeper into the mainstream political agenda than it could ever get without recognition by a sovereign state.

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Crypto lending products have come under scrutiny from security regulators in some jurisdictions across the United States. While these enforcement actions have come from agencies at the state level, there have been indications that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was also set to go on the offensive.

Thus, it was perhaps unsurprising to see the SEC ask Coinbase to halt its proposed crypto lending program titled “Lend.” Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong took to Twitter to express dissatisfaction with the SEC’s behavior, stating that the Commission was not forthcoming with useful guidance despite public assurances to the contrary.

Critics of the SEC’s enforcement actions directed at the U.S. crypto space warn that America risks falling behind in the emerging digital economy if suitable regulatory sandboxes are not created. However, the SEC has maintained that the size and growth potential of the cryptocurrency space makes it necessary for the industry to operate within the ambit of existing laws and guidelines.

Lending is a security

As previously reported by Cointelegraph, the SEC recently threatened Coinbase with legal action if the exchange giant brings its crypto lending product to market. According to Armstrong, the Wells notice — a letter that the regulator sends to firms it intends to bring a lawsuit against — came as a surprise to the company given its attempts to iron out any regulatory wrinkles with the SEC before its launch announcement.

Indeed, the Coinbase CEO stated that Coinbase was looking to introduce its Lend product to customers “in a few weeks.” However, the latest from the SEC might see the company delaying the planned launch at least for now.

As part of the Twitter thread, Armstrong countered the SEC’s argument that lending is a security. However, America’s established securities law classifies lending as a security with some notable exceptions, for example, banks.

According to the Coinbase CEO, the SEC says that the company’s Lend product is a security because it behaves like an “investment contract,” i.e., it is an investment of money (in this case, customer’s crypto deposits) in a common enterprise with a reasonable expectation of profit (yield) that is derived from the efforts of others. As such, Coinbase cannot launch its crypto lending product without due approval from the SEC.

However, Coinbase has countered this position by stating that Lend does not constitute an investment contract. Instead, the company’s customers are lending the USD Coin (USDC) in their accounts in the course of an already existing relationship with Coinbase. The company also stated that it is obligatory to pay interest to its Lend customers regardless of the success of its broader operations and business activities.

Part of the confusion surrounding the SEC’s interpretation of decades-old security regulations to a crypto lending program likely stems from the Commission’s apparent lack of transparency in stating how it plans to evaluate such products within the framework of the Howey and Reves Test, which determines a definition of an investment contract. Armstrong also alluded to this vagueness in his complaint about the Commission’s behavior towards the company.

In a conversation with Cointelegraph, former SEC enforcement officer Marc Powers highlighted the many nuances involved in adapting U.S. regulatory provisions to both centralized and decentralized exchanges, especially in markets like crypto lending and staking.

According to Powers, with crypto entities like Coinbase not being registered as broker-dealers with the SEC, the Commission will need to decide if a crypto lending product qualifies as a security even if the company’s cryptocurrency listing catalog does not include any security tokens.

Detailing the many points to consider, Powers remarked: “A ‘security’ by definition not only includes ‘investment contracts,’ as interpreted by the Supreme Court in the Howey case but also ‘participation in any profit-sharing arrangement,’ adding:

“It depends, are the proposed coins which will be available on the Coinbase platform going to be pooled in a way with the profits from the daily lending activity divided among all those who loaned coins? If so, maybe there is a need for registration of the proposed program as a ‘securities’ offering and then, too, the exchange as it is offering the purchase and sale of ‘securities.’ As an ‘exchange’ is a ‘facility bringing together purchasers and sellers of securities.’”

Possible tax surveillance?

While it is perhaps correct to state that Coinbase’s argument about lending not being a security is incorrect as far as U.S. securities law is concerned, alarms have also been raised about the SEC’s conduct in the matter. Apart from the threat of legal action, a move seemingly out of left field from the Commission’s usual approach to enforcement, the SEC also asked Coinbase to provide customer details from its Lend waitlist.

Some critics of the SEC said that the request was egregious in many respects and, apart from being a privacy violation, also speaks to the anti-crypto sentiment seemingly prevalent among several key figures in Washington. Indeed, a prevailing argument among some anti-crypto policymakers in the U.S. is that less than stringent cryptocurrency regulations will result in digital assets creating a vibrant shadowed banking industry that will be put to nefarious use.

These assertions about crypto criminality fly in the face of established investigative and forensics analysis of cryptocurrency transactions, showing only a minute proportion of the overall volume being linked to illicit activities. Also, crypto is used far less with criminal intent when compared with traditional financial methods.

The SEC asking for the names and contact information of Coinbase customers interested in a crypto lending product is a development that continues to draw criticism from the cryptocurrency space. Given that the illegality of cryptocurrency lending is yet to be established by any court of competent jurisdiction, some crypto figures have expressed their discontent about the request.

Related:  Sen. Elizabeth Warren calls crypto the ‘new shadow bank‘

Part of the alarms being raised is that the request likely points to a concerted effort towards tax surveillance of the crypto population, especially in the United States. The move also echoes the ill feelings that arose when the Treasury Department sought to track self-hosted cryptocurrency wallets toward the end of 2020.

Chairman of the SEC Gary Gensler has already spoken copiously about the Commission’s intention to enact robust laws to govern America’s crypto space. Earlier in August, the SEC chief highlighted that the regulatory policing will also include the decentralized finance (DeFi) space as well as stablecoins and crypto lending.

Earlier in September, reports emerged that the SEC was looking into Uniswap, the largest decentralized exchange in the crypto market. Gensler has also previously argued that some DeFi protocols were highly centralized.

Crypto lending crackdown

A significant portion of Armstrong’s complaints in the aforementioned Twitter thread was the apparent unwillingness of the SEC to parley with the company over its crypto lending program. The Commission could have a reason for not being forthcoming with information related to cryptocurrency lending products and this stance could be related to upcoming enforcement actions against the interests of BlockFi.

Over the summer months, crypto lending outfit BlockFi received a few cease and desist orders from state securities regulators including New Jersey and Alabama. At the time, Cointelegraph reported that the raft of regulatory pressure on BlockFi from state agencies could be a bellwether for possible federal regulations against not only BlockFi but other crypto lending participants.

Related: Crypto-collateralized loans may soon bring new investors to space

If the SEC is preparing to go after BlockFi and other players in the crypto lending scene then perhaps responding to Coinbase’s request for guidance might have constituted revealing its enforcement playbook prematurely. According to Powers, however, the likelihood of a pending SEC action against BlockFi might not be the reason for the Commission’s vagueness, as reported by Coinbase.

“While it might be helpful for the SEC to provide advisory guidance to companies, it has no obligation to do so,” the adjunct professor at Florida International University College of Law told Cointelegraph. Commenting on the SEC’s reticence in providing broader guidance on crypto lending, Powers stated:

“Part of the hesitancy of the SEC providing broad pronouncements on crypto lending may lie in the variety of the platforms doing so, whether ‘securities’ are involved in an intensive facts and circumstances inquiry.”

Crypto lending is popular for a variety of reasons even beyond the attractive interest rates offered by the likes of BlockFi. For one, such companies enable people to take loans of up to 50% of the value of their cryptocurrency holdings without having to liquidate their crypto assets. So, instead of incurring the tax bill from selling cryptocurrency, customers and even institutions can access cash using their crypto as collateral.

The SEC’s threat of legal action against Coinbase provides perhaps the first real indication that federal authorities are preparing to go after crypto lending. Such enforcement action may also include policies aimed at stablecoins as well.

Crypto proponents continue to warn that stringent regulatory provisions will only serve to force innovation outside of the United States.

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b",open:1.423,openFormatted:"1.42",high:1.514,highFormatted:se,low:1.3,lowFormatted:pC,volume24hour:13663522381.413425,volume24hourFormatted:"13.66 b",coinTradeVol:dF,coinTradeVolFormatted:dG,supply:dH,supplyFormatted:dI},{id:_,name:bH,label:bI,url:bJ,value:lb,valueAltDesktop:lb,valueAltMobile:lb,changePercentage:"-5.07%",changeForWeek:pI,changeForWeekFormatted:pJ,changeForMonth:-28.64,changeForMonthFormatted:"-28.64%",isUp:a,isDown:b,isVisibleOnDesktop:a,isVisibleOnMobile:a,mktcap:41952792551.252625,mktcapFormatted:"41.95 b",open:335.35,openFormatted:"335.35",high:357.57,highFormatted:"357.57",low:306.08,lowFormatted:"306.08",volume24hour:8220231345.562449,volume24hourFormatted:"8.22 b",coinTradeVol:dJ,coinTradeVolFormatted:dK,supply:dL,supplyFormatted:dM},{id:bK,name:bL,label:bM,url:bN,value:lc,valueAltDesktop:lc,valueAltMobile:lc,changePercentage:"-5.80%",changeForWeek:-23.05,changeForWeekFormatted:"-23.05%",changeForMonth:21.9,changeForMonthFormatted:"+21.90%",isUp:a,isDown:b,isVisibleOnDesktop:a,isVisibleOnMobile:a,mktcap:30164121825.24355,mktcapFormatted:"30.16 b",open:36.15,openFormatted:"36.15",high:38.85,highFormatted:"38.85",low:32.04,lowFormatted:"32.04",volume24hour:6137705061.16175,volume24hourFormatted:ph,coinTradeVol:dN,coinTradeVolFormatted:dO,supply:dP,supplyFormatted:dQ},{id:aj,name:bO,label:bP,url:bQ,value:gH,valueAltDesktop:gH,valueAltMobile:gH,changePercentage:so,changeForWeek:-18.25,changeForWeekFormatted:"-18.25%",changeForMonth:-28.45,changeForMonthFormatted:"-28.45%",isUp:a,isDown:b,isVisibleOnDesktop:a,isVisibleOnMobile:a,mktcap:9189433417.798235,mktcapFormatted:"9.19 b",open:1.047,openFormatted:fp,high:1.118,highFormatted:eE,low:.9507,lowFormatted:fn,volume24hour:638443786.5938634,volume24hourFormatted:"638.44 m",coinTradeVol:dR,coinTradeVolFormatted:dS,supply:dT,supplyFormatted:dU},{id:ak,name:bR,label:bS,url:bT,value:eT,valueAltDesktop:eT,valueAltMobile:eT,changePercentage:"-0.41%",changeForWeek:-2.02,changeForWeekFormatted:"-2.02%",changeForMonth:-2.99,changeForMonthFormatted:"-2.99%",isUp:a,isDown:b,isVisibleOnDesktop:a,isVisibleOnMobile:a,mktcap:190324585471.40732,mktcapFormatted:"190.32 b",open:ld,openFormatted:gG,high:ld,highFormatted:gG,low:ld,lowFormatted:gG,volume24hour:35401053467.53561,volume24hourFormatted:"35.40 b",coinTradeVol:dV,coinTradeVolFormatted:as,supply:dW,supplyFormatted:dX},{id:Z,name:bU,label:bV,url:bW,value:fp,valueAltDesktop:fp,valueAltMobile:fp,changePercentage:"-7.03%",changeForWeek:-16.02,changeForWeekFormatted:"-16.02%",changeForMonth:1.48,changeForMonthFormatted:"+1.48%",isUp:a,isDown:b,isVisibleOnDesktop:a,isVisibleOnMobile:a,mktcap:26584855187.212307,mktcapFormatted:"26.58 b",open:sg,openFormatted:eE,high:1.183,highFormatted:"1.18",low:1.024,lowFormatted:gH,volume24hour:484238024.5137722,volume24hourFormatted:"484.24 m",coinTradeVol:dY,coinTradeVolFormatted:dZ,supply:d_,supplyFormatted:d$},{id:bX,name:bY,label:bZ,url:b_,value:le,valueAltDesktop:le,valueAltMobile:le,changePercentage:"-10.29%",changeForWeek:5.23,changeForWeekFormatted:"+5.23%",changeForMonth:62.67,changeForMonthFormatted:"+62.67%",isUp:a,isDown:b,isVisibleOnDesktop:a,isVisibleOnMobile:a,mktcap:52507743516.39211,mktcapFormatted:"52.51 b",open:231.57,openFormatted:"231.57",high:262.77,highFormatted:"262.77",low:207.32,lowFormatted:"207.32",volume24hour:24400435592.93171,volume24hourFormatted:"24.40 b",coinTradeVol:ea,coinTradeVolFormatted:eb,supply:ec,supplyFormatted:ed},{id:b$,name:ca,label:cb,url:cc,value:lf,valueAltDesktop:lf,valueAltMobile:lf,changePercentage:"-1.06%",changeForWeek:-7.5,changeForWeekFormatted:"-7.50%",changeForMonth:qN,changeForMonthFormatted:gu,isUp:a,isDown:b,isVisibleOnDesktop:a,isVisibleOnMobile:a,mktcap:18415823123.883854,mktcapFormatted:"18.42 b",open:20.32,openFormatted:"20.32",high:22.59,highFormatted:"22.59",low:18.53,lowFormatted:"18.53",volume24hour:18351016.658744607,volume24hourFormatted:"18.35 m",coinTradeVol:ee,coinTradeVolFormatted:ef,supply:eg,supplyFormatted:eh}]},currencies:[{id:oL,name:j,sign:oM,value:gd},{id:oN,name:l,sign:oO,value:gj},{id:oP,name:m,sign:oQ,value:gp},{id:oR,name:n,sign:gc,value:gv},{id:oS,name:o,sign:oT,value:gx},{id:oU,name:p,sign:oV,value:gB},{id:oW,name:q,sign:oX,value:gC},{id:oY,name:oZ,sign:o_,value:gE},{id:o$,name:v,sign:gc,value:gF}],graphs:{}},types:{},user:{isAuthed:a,isAuthedBySocials:a,token:h,id:h,firstName:c,lastName:c,userName:c,avatar:c,email:c,description:c,userGaId:c,ipAddress:"51.158.100.204",analyticsData:[],sessionId:c},vendors:{isVendorsModalShown:a,info:{},localI18n:{}},viewport:{isWindowActive:b,viewportWidth:f,viewportHeight:f,scrollTop:f,scrollIsLocked:a,breakpoint:"XS",isOverlayVisible:a,userDeviceType:{apple:{phone:a,ipod:a,tablet:a,device:a},amazon:{phone:a,tablet:a,device:a},android:{phone:a,tablet:a,device:a},windows:{phone:a,tablet:a,device:a},other:{blackberry:a,blackberry10:a,opera:a,firefox:a,chrome:a,safari:a,device:a},any:a,phone:a,tablet:a},bottomZoneHeight:f}},serverRendered:b,routePath:gI}}(false,true,"",void 0,2,0,"_self",null,1,"USD","default","EUR","GBP","JPY","RUR","KRW","TRY",3,4,9,"en","CNY","1","Language",2021,"2","es","EOS","NEO","changelly-button","Analysis","18.85 m","https://hitbtc.com/?ref_id=5cba0be404aa3","7","adbutler",5,"xxs","xs","sm","md","lg","11","Ethereum","4","Bitcoin","https://changelly.com?utm_source=cointelegraphutm_medium=referralutm_campaign=changellyctengbuttonref_id=le9ssi8dgmskmqu0","hitbtc-button","promo_button","0.85","0.73",13,"28","23",48,"article","/category/analysis","cointelegraph.com","Cardano","https://cointelegraph.us3.list-manage.com/subscribe/post-json?u=2c088712615955cd2f82aa968id=7376af3992","https://cointelegraph.us3.list-manage.com/subscribe/post-json?u=2c088712615955cd2f82aa968id=aad9f6b505","21","17","22","26","27",51,"/bitcoin-cash-price-index","/ltc-price-index","/xrp-price-index","/xmr-price-index","_blank","12","5.47 b",14,"analysis",10,"en.LanguageType.1","es.cointelegraph.com",11,50,6,"BTC","/bitcoin-price","ETH","/ethereum-price","3","LTC","Litecoin","XRP","Ripple","6","BCH","Bitcoin Cash","XMR","Monero","8","DASH","Dash","/dash-price-index","9","/eos-price-index","ZEC","Zcash","/zec-price-index","ADA","/ada-price-index","13","/neo-price-index","14","TRX","TRON","/tron-price-index","15","BNB","Binance Coin","/binance-coin-price-index","16","XLM","Stellar","/stellar-price-index","USDT","Tether","/tether-price-index","18","MIOTA","IOTA","/iota-price-index","19","ONT","Ontology","/ontology-price-index","20","MKR","Maker","/maker-price-index","BSV","Bitcoin SV","/bsv-price-index","DOGE","Dogecoin","/doge-price-index","ETC","Ethereum Classic","/etc-price-index","24","XTZ","Tezos","/xtz-price-index","XEM","NEM","/nem-price-index","USDC","USD Coin","/usdc-price-index","CRO","Crypto.com Coin","/crypto-com-price-index","29","ATOM","Cosmos","/cosmos-price-index","30","LEO","UNUS SED LEO","/leo-price-index","3.00 b","1.00","en.LanguageType.2","Y2hhbmdlbGx5LWJ1dHRvbg==","Changelly",47,79,95,138,1086082.89,"1.09 m",18822081,"18.82 m",9295080.16,"9.30 m",117612211.499,"117.61 m",19582695.52,"19.58 m",66752614.51538747,"66.75 m",6109173459.21,"6.11 b",99990263493,"99.99 b",11254370.48,"11.25 m",18851587.5,1271466.83,"1.27 m",17996901.79851513,"18.00 m",2293706.68,"2.29 m",10340491.29182297,"10.34 m",514653212.45,"514.65 m",1034705755.7982,"1.03 b",2750654.13,"2.75 m",12696662.5,"12.70 m",3002689122.97,33117618880.453,"33.12 b",10361581.31,"10.36 m",100000000,"100.00 m",23691639493.66,"23.69 b",100850743811.662,"100.85 b",6297342.31,"6.30 m",168137036,"168.14 m",2888935665.85,"2.89 b",50001802780.35553,"50.00 b",100931128478.32,"100.93 b",71335677474.96931,"71.34 b",118336636.95,"118.34 m",2779530283,"2.78 b",191002710.14,"191.00 m",1000000000,"1.00 b",60384.53,"60.38 k",991328.38195493,"991.33 k",3633287.69,"3.63 m",18848339.14423905,10010668083.18,"10.01 b",131370998473.82323,"131.37 b",25506542.23,"25.51 m",210700000,"210.70 m",175072155.49,"175.07 m",889730957.236439,"889.73 m",625282736.97,"625.28 m",8999999999,"9.00 b",5471863025.75,29418052857.84452,"29.42 b",460160935.89,"460.16 m",30263013692,"30.26 b",103028917.43,"103.03 m",279494414.30949,"279.49 m",950597.1,"950.60 k",985239504,"985.24 m","0.12",15,"info",7,"Note that all trading strategies are to be used at your own risk. Before trading, we recommend to make sure that you have a clear understanding of cryptocurrencies and how they are traded.","side","youtube","0.16",20,"/tags/regulation",21,"Large devices"," 1200px","Medium devices"," 992px","Small tablets"," 768px","Smartphones"," 480px","Extra small devices","

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