Slow to start: Crypto regulators lagging behind blockchain industry

by Donna Ryder

Did a visit from the SEC’s Gensler with EU legislators signal a policy shift? Is U.S.–European collaboration on crypto regulation coming soon?

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Slow to start: Crypto regulators lagging behind blockchain industry

As if he didn’t have enough to do, Gary Gensler appeared before the European Parliament on Sept. 1 to share his policy recommendations regarding the regulation of crypto assets and other matters. While the United States Securities and Exchange Commission Chair made clear that he was presenting his own views — not those of the Commission — his (virtual) appearance necessarily raised questions.

Does Gensler, regarded by some as America’s most crypto-savvy regulator, believe that cryptocurrency and blockchain policy has to be harmonized globally? If so, can he make common cause with the Europeans — or do the U.S. and the European Union have different priorities? More generally, are globally harmonized regulations even feasible, particularly in areas such as decentralized finance?

The questions didn’t end when the New York Times made cryptocurrency the lead story in its Sunday, Sept. 5 edition, observing that “the boom in companies offering cryptocurrency loans and high-yield deposit accounts is disrupting the banking industry and leaving regulators scrambling to catch up.”

It all begs the question: Wherefore the regulators?

“I think it is very telling to have the SEC chief over in the EU Parliament in the midst of the recent surge in cryptos,” Pablo Agnese, lecturer in the department of economy and business organization at the Universitat Internacional de Catalunya Barcelona, told Cointelegraph, adding, “Not only are they [i.e., regulators] playing a catch-up game, they are also trying to reach a political consensus, at least in the U.S.–EU relationship.”

Patrick Hansen, until recently head of blockchain at Bitkom — an association of German companies in the digital economy — opined that Gensler is undoubtedly aware of how decentralized and global the crypto community is, telling Cointelegraph, “With DeFi projects coming primarily out of the U.S. and Europe, he probably wants to ensure that both regions align on these issues in order to prevent regulatory arbitrage.”

A growing realization

“I’m not convinced that the recent high-profile meetings between U.S. regulators and their European counterparts represent a policy shift,” Geoffrey Goodell, a research associate at University College London and deputy executive director of the UCL Centre for Blockchain Technologies, told Cointelegraph. He added:

“There is a growing realization on both sides of the Atlantic that digital currencies are here to stay and could potentially introduce systemic risk, not only to investors searching for new sources of uncorrelated returns but also to monetary sovereignty.”

In his remarks before the EU parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, Gensler noted that “this $2.1-trillion asset class is truly global. It has no borders or boundaries. It operates 24 hours a day, seven days a week.”

While affirming that he was “technology-neutral,” Gensler emphasized that “I am anything but public policy-neutral.” A sound public policy entails protecting consumers, curtailing illicit activity, and ensuring financial stability, he said, adding, “For those who want to encourage innovations in crypto, I’d like to note that financial innovations throughout history don’t long thrive outside of public policy frameworks.”

U.S. and Europe: Different concerns?

Still, crypto regulatory harmonization requires some agreement around the goals. Do European policymakers have different priorities from Americans? For example, Europeans might be more worried about the environmental harm caused by Bitcoin (BTC) mining while U.S. policymakers could be more focused on whether stablecoins are truly stable.

“Environmental damage is definitely a bigger concern in the EU, especially the EU Parliament,” where some political groups like the Greens want to ban proof-of-work consensus protocols, noted Hansen. As for stablecoins, most are denominated in U.S. dollars, so this is understandably an American preoccupation, he added, but they could become a concern for the EU if all decentralized finance (DeFi) activity becomes USD denominated.

Agnese sees the environmental issue as a bit of a red herring — possibly even a way to denigrate the technology by its detractors — and he referenced a May 2021 Galaxy Digital report that claims the Bitcoin network uses less than half the energy employed by both the banking system and the gold industry, “arguably the two closest competitors if we think of cryptos as a potential media of exchange,” he told Cointelegraph.

Surely, though, U.S. and European policymakers share mutual interests with regard to crypto, like ensuring Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) procedures are universally adhered to. “The most important short-term common ground has to be the regulatory standards for centralized crypto custodians, exchanges, brokers, etc. on the matters of KYC, AML, taxation and consumer protection,” said Hansen.

Stablecoins are also a valid area of common concern in Agnese’s view, “as many such cryptos, which are pegged to major currencies like the USD, have not been audited or, when they have, they have left many questions still unanswered.”

In his Sept. 1 remarks, Gensler noted that “nearly three-quarters of trading on all crypto trading platforms occurred between a stablecoin and some other token” in July, and he suggested that stablecoins could be facilitating those seeking to sidestep financial regulations, including AML and sanctions rules. “European regulators are certainly aware of the counterparty risk intrinsic to stablecoins,” noted Goodell, adding:

“When a private-sector stablecoin issuer fails to fulfill its promise to maintain a peg, would the European Central Bank bail out holders of stablecoins? If the answer is definitely yes, then the issuer is effectively doing the central bank’s job by creating a central bank digital currency on its behalf. If the answer is possibly no, then the stablecoin isn’t so stable and should trade at a discount.”

Goodell disputed the notion, however, that U.S. regulators are necessarily late to the game with regard to crypto assets. “I think the full story is more nuanced,” he told Cointelegraph, explaining that the largest digital asset exchanges settle their trades in U.S. dollars, while the largest stablecoins are pegged in USD, too, “so arguably, the threat posed by cryptocurrencies to monetary sovereignty is less acute in the U.S. than in other countries.”

In addition, many large U.S. financial institutions have a stake in the crypto space — i.e., “are stakeholders in infrastructure and services that underpin digital assets — and regulators might prefer to be patient rather than upset the delicate balance,” he added.

Is harmonization really needed?

In the end, is a globally harmonized crypto regulatory structure even necessary? Agnese urged a hands-off approach with regard to crypto regulation — allowing the technology to evolve and show what it can do — adding:

“Money laundering, the environment, and a lack of serious auditing efforts are not unique to the blockchain ecosystem. It would be a pity to see a concerted overreaction by major governments that would stifle innovation and hamper the growth of this sector and thus deprive society at large of all the benefits to come.”

But the powers that be may not be so patient. As the New York Times reported, “Top officials from the Federal Reserve and other banking regulators have urgently begun what they are calling a ‘crypto sprint’ to try to catch up with the rapid changes and figure out how to curb the potential dangers from an emerging industry whose short history has been marked as much by high-stakes speculation as by technological advances.”

Related: Project Giant: Nigeria’s CBDC set for pilot rollout on Independence Day

Goodell, for his part, was skeptical about a global crypto regulatory regime absent central bank digital currencies. “Globally harmonized regulations on digital assets will be difficult if not impossible,” he said, but with the right approach to a government-issued digital currency, “we can mitigate the systemic risk associated with digital assets and might avoid the requirement for global consensus.”

Meanwhile, Hansen told Cointelegraph that “ignoring a $2-trillion-plus market that has existed for over a decade is no longer an option. Regulatory frameworks for centralized crypto companies — exchanges, lenders, etc. — are just around the corner,” though actions regarding DeFi and perhaps some other issues “are way more complex and will require more discussions and time.”

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Nonfungible tokens (NFT) have enjoyed quick adoption across the entertainment, media and sports space as the biggest brands, companies and individuals look to gain first-mover advantage in creating their own digital collectibles.

These have come in myriad forms, and much like blockchain technology was touted to be pliable to any industry’s needs and problems, the imagination is the only limit when it comes to NFTs that are being created and traded around the world.

Social media has made people more connected than ever before, and these various platforms have played a role in the introduction and proliferation of NFTs among distinct audiences.

However, industry-leading behemoths like Facebook and Twitter have not quite onboarded blockchain technology into the inner fabric of their underlying systems. Users can post about exciting new NFT launchings, but the end-user cannot buy or trade these items without clicking on a link taking them to whichever platform the digital collectible is based on.

Facebook, in particular, has been subject to plenty of regulatory scrutiny over the past two years, as its planned cryptocurrency wallet and native token and global payment system had far-ranging implications for the financial space. Given its estimated 2.9 billion user base, the social media giant could well disrupt how hundreds of millions of people transact with each other every day.

As its Novi wallet and Diem cryptocurrency edge closer to an official launch, the company has not been oblivious to the popularity of NFTs. Facebook Financial head David Marcus admitted as much in August, saying its Novi wallet is in a prime position to help its users with NFT support.

NFTs are growing in popularity, and social media platforms like Facebook are moving quickly to stay abreast of the burgeoning space. What remains to be seen is what a Facebook-powered NFT would look like and if the company’s move into the sector will be mutually beneficial for the social media giant and the crypto industry.

Integration is inevitable

There seems to be a consensus among industry participants that the integration of NFTs and social media platforms is just a matter of time. María Paula Fernandez, adviser to the Golem Network’s board of directors, told Cointelegraph there are both positives and negatives to this eventuality:

“I am uncomfortable with the idea of Facebook jumping into NFTs, NFT marketplaces are, for the most part, transactional and profit-driven. I would be more concerned about other web3 applications integrating with Facebook.”

Markus Bopp, chief training officer and founder of NFT multichain infrastructure platform Unifty, also weighed in on the subject, telling Cointelegraph that the burgeoning space could have some interesting use cases for social media platforms.

Going above and beyond the trade of digital collectibles, Bopp believes that the functionality of NFTs could provide the solution to some vexing problems for various social media platforms, like proof of identity and the need for verification:

“An NFT based system could remedy this with little effort, and combine with profile picture as well. But identity proof is only one small possibility. What NFTs are really good at is gamification and value-added ownership. Social media entities will be able to use these powerful tools to investigate literally thousands of new possibilities.”

With the integration of NFTs into social media platforms expected to become a reality, the next consideration is if this will have a fundamental effect on the adoption of the wider cryptocurrency space and blockchain innovations.

Bopp believes that the reach of the biggest social media platforms will be crucial in driving the use of cryptocurrencies, especially when the functionality becomes seamless: “The user experience for crypto mass adoption needs to be at a level where the user doesn't even need to know they are interfacing with a blockchain.”

Fernandez offered an alternative take as she highlighted the hardships faced by Facebook when its plans for Diem, initially branded as Libra, were intercepted by various regulators. In that space of time, NFTs have made their way into widespread use: “Facebook already tried and failed to integrate cryptocurrency, and nonetheless, crypto, blockchain, and NFTs have gone mainstream without it.” She added: “We are building an industry that does not need Facebook to develop platforms that reach mainstream audiences across all corners of the world.”

What would Facebook-integrated NFTs look like?

The Libra Foundation is continuing its march toward the launch of the Novi wallet and Diem cryptocurrency, and barring major regulatory enforcement, the platform should introduce Facebook’s user base to a native digital wallet that will initially offer stablecoins representing sovereign currencies like the United States dollar, pound and euro.

It’s not yet clear if and when the Diem wallet would incorporate support for the likes of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). This means that its own NFT platform is likely to be integrated directly into the Diem blockchain. Interoperability with decentralized tokens like ETH may not be supported, necessitating its own NFT ecosystem that plugs into the Novi wallet.

Bopp agreed that the Novi crypto wallet and Diem currency would be an important part in powering NFT support since “Adoption at this level will be fantastic for the crypto space,” but that there would likely be some trade-offs for users and varying implications for the wider space:

“Facebook is likely to put their own spin on NFTs, as they have done with most things. We should expect an ownership compromise, as they attempt to corral the tech for their user base alone. This will probably work for them to a great extent, but at the same time it will drive discovery of more open and decentralized sources.”

In assuming that Facebook-powered NFTs will be powered by the Novi wallet and Diem cryptocurrency, Fernandez doesn’t see the centralized ecosystem measuring up to the likes of the Ethereum blockchain, which gave birth to smart contract functionality and decentralized application development: “There’s communities, games, customizable smart contracts that give the NFT properties, ecosystems built around certain NFTs, financial instruments like fractionalized ownership and liquidity pools. I don’t see Facebook capable of topping this.”

Crypto community key to NFT popularity

The reality of a Facebook user being able to buy an NFT that pops up on their feed is some way off, given that a launch date for Novi and Diem is still not set in stone due to ongoing regulatory considerations in different jurisdictions.

Related: Bitcoin tipping on Twitter: A game changer for crypto adoption?

At the same time, decentralized NFT marketplaces are thriving, powered by the very communities that built the infrastructure and trade the tokens that power their ecosystems. Fernandez offered a poignant parting thought, telling Cointelegraph that Facebook doesn’t have a community around it that is comparable to one like that of Ethereum:

“NFTs are not only cultural objects or collectibles — they are financial instruments. The Ethereum community has mastered the art of building financial instruments and has now integrated NFTs within these. Facebook can sell a bunch of jpegs all it wants, but it’s no competition if its transaction layer is not on Ethereum.” \n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/72509.1440ab28-95f1-442a-940c-8cce2427d56f.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:1754,shares:lK,tags:[{id:"286",slug:fu,title:fv,url:"/tags/facebook"},{id:"712",slug:"technology",title:"Technology",url:gJ},{id:fw,slug:fx,title:fy,url:fz},{id:"9528",slug:"nft",title:"NFT",url:"/tags/nft"}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=72509regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:e_,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"el-salvador-s-bitcoin-detractors-opposition-mounts-despite-crypto-rollout",url:gv,absoluteUrl:lk,title:fr,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:gw,datePublished:gI,dateHuman:"10 hours ago",humanDateTime:"2021-09-11 07:07",dateISOFull:"2021-09-11T06:07:00+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:y,month:t,day:H,hour:R,minute:V,second:f,millisecond:f},categorySlug:au,categoryUrl:ae,categoryName:F,authorName:"Jinia Shawdagor",authorUrl:"/authors/shawdagor-jinia",authorAvatar:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/071872b1b44cc9885010275313687a32.jpg",previewText:"Some are resisting El Salvador’s move to make Bitcoin a legal tender, sighting lack of education and volatility of BTC. ",twitterLeadText:"Waves of uncertainty, fear and doubt regarding Bitcoin's role in El Salvador’s economy have appeared. ",badgeSlug:ek,badgeName:lL,fullText:"

The year 2021 will probably go down the history books as one of Bitcoin’s (BTC) most interesting years, given its recent uptake by billionaires and adoption by mainstream institutions, not to mention El Salvador’s move to make it legal tender. 

In El Salvador’s case, it almost seems as if the whole world is watching this experiment to see whether it will be a success or a total failure for the Central American nation.

With Sept. 7 marking the official implementation of Bitcoin as a legal tender in El Salvador, a wave of protests in the country against the move has roused suspicions and uncertainty over how the new law will be enforced. 

From the arrest of individuals criticizing the Salvadoran government over the new law, to the wave of citizens across the country protesting Bitcoin’s legal status, the seminal crypto is facing some headwinds.

How Bitcoin became legal tender 

It all began in early June after Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele announced in a tweet that the country’s legislative assembly had passed a bill making Bitcoin legal tender. The law was set to be implemented on Sept. 7 and would see the country's 4.5 million citizens able to make purchases with Bitcoin at stores nationwide. 

In his announcement, Bukele said that once an official bill to make Bitcoin legal tender was passed, “Chivo ATMs” — Chivo being the name of the official BTC wallet for El Salvador — would eventually be “everywhere” in the country. This would allow El Salvadorans to withdraw Bitcoin in cash without incurring any commissions on their holdings, as is the case with services such as Western Union. 

Moreover, Bukele assured citizens that no one will be forced to use Bitcoin. In a statement, the 40-year-old president said that “someone can always queue up at Western Union and pay a commission.”

“What if someone doesn’t want to use Bitcoin? [Well] don’t download the app and continue living your normal life. Nobody is going to take your dollars,” he said. 

The first wave of resistance

Following the announcement, a group of protestors called the Popular Resistance and Rebellion Block (BRRP) block emerged to protest against the Bitcoin law.

“President Nayib Bukele passed the law making the cryptocurrency legal tender in the country without proper consultations with the people,” one activist said.

Although the protest group highlighted complexities such as Bitcoin’s volatility as reasons for caution, their main claim is that the law mainly serves large businesses linked to alleged money laundering to the benefit of corrupt officials.

“Bitcoin only serves some large businessmen, especially those linked to the government, to launder ill-gotten money,” one protestor said.

A letter from the BRRP group said that “entrepreneurs who put their capital in Bitcoin will not pay taxes on their earnings and the government would spend millions worth of taxes to execute the whole campaign.”

Indeed, the bill to make Bitcoin legal tender includes some interesting proposals such as a zero capital gains tax on BTC. The bill also promised investors permanent residency in the country with a three BTC investment in El Salvador. 

The arrest of Mario Gómez

As the controversial Bitcoin bill became a law on Sept. 7, both supporters and detractors continue to emerge with the latest in events around the law being the arrest of Mario Gómez.

According to several local news outlets in El Salvador, Mario Gómez — a computer and crypto expert as well as an avid critic of the government — was arrested by local police and held for a few hours before being released.

Gómez has been known to regularly post on social media opposing the government’s move to make Bitcoin legal tender. Observers such as Steve Hanke — an economist from Johns Hopkins University — criticized Gómez's arrest as an “authoritarian police tactic in action.”

Hector Silva, a counselor of the mayor’s office in San Salvador, said, “the arrest of Mario portrays the fragility of the government in terms of the implementation of the Bitcoin law but confirms something even more dangerous.”

“They are willing to manipulate whatever institutions are necessary to push critical voices out of the way,” added Silva. 

Although the police released a statement saying that Gómez was detained as part of a financial fraud investigation, news reports claimed that he was arrested without a warrant and an attempt was made to take possession of his phone and computer. 

The citizens' protest

Right before Gómez's arrest, some retirees in El Salvador took to the streets to protest, worried about the government using the cryptocurrency to pay their pensions.

While speaking to reporters, one demonstrator from the crowd — which included veterans, disability pensioners, workers and retirees — said, “we know this coin fluctuates drastically. Its value changes from one second to another, and we will have no control over it.”

While Bukele has promised that the use of Bitcoin in the country will be optional and that salaries and pensions will still be paid in United States dollars, the protestors still highlighted a lack of knowledge of the technology.

Citizens have also complained that there has been too little explanation from officials about the pros and cons of Bitcoin. “We don’t know the currency. We don’t know where it comes from. We don’t know if it’s going to bring us profit or loss. We don’t know anything,” one Salvadoran added.

In response, Bukele’s administration has stated that the use of Bitcoin is not mandatory and that necessary training and other alternatives to Bitcoin will be provided. 

Mixed opinions

Although President Bukele enjoys incredibly high approval ratings, recent polls concerning the Bitcoin law show a widespread lack of support for the measure. A recent poll conducted by El Salvador's Universidad Centroamericana José Siméon Cañas shows that up to two-thirds of respondents are inclined toward a move to repeal the law, and more than 70% prefer the U.S dollar over Bitcoin.

International institutions like the International Monetary Fund have also warned about macroeconomic, financial and legal issues brought about by El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin.

Siobhan Morden, head of Latin America Fixed Income Strategy at Amherst Pierpont, said that “the plans for Bitcoin under an increasingly autocratic regime will likely only compound concerns about corruption.”

On the flip side, others remain optimistic that the new law will eventually benefit Salvadorans given that the country’s economy is heavily reliant on remittances sent home by migrants overseas. Last year alone, the country’s remittances totaled $6 billion, accounting for a fifth of gross domestic product.

“El Salvador’s adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender by law offers the country some optionality in financial matters and sovereignty,” said Alexander Blum, managing director of Two Prime. 

His sentiments were echoed by Alberto Echegaray Guevara — an artist and entrepreneur — who said, “President Bukele’s Bitcoin Law is not only trying to make international money transfer cheaper and easier for 70% of his unbanked population but also creating a new economic hub and new remittances platform in Central America.”

Adrian Pollard from HollaEx told Cointelegraph, “It is typical for new technology rollouts to have bugs and apposition but that’s exactly why it was made voluntary.”

“I suspect there will be more bumps along the road for El Salvador but it will be worth it long term. In fact, I believe other South American nations aren’t far behind and will follow,” added Pollard.

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Everything is bigger in Texas, which is why it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Lone Star state is making moves to become America’s next Bitcoin (BTC) hotspot. 

Most recently, Texas implemented two laws to ensure that cryptocurrencies are recognized under state commercial law. Texas House Bills 4474 and 1576 both took effect on Sept. 1, after being signed into law by Governor Greg Abbott this past June. While H.B. 1576 established a blockchain working group in Texas, H.B. 4474 provides a complete framework to demonstrate that virtual currency has a place under Texas law.

Specifically speaking, H.B. 4474 adopted the proposed language of the Uniform Law Commission’s new Uniform Commercial Code, or UCC. UCC Article 12 is set to be finalized next year, but states are free to adopt the proposed language in the meantime, as demonstrated by Texas’ H.B. 4474. Patrick Boot, associate at Hunton Andrews Kurth, told Cointelegraph that the text of H.B 4474 concisely points out three specific things:

“It defines virtual currency, while also establishing how to show control over virtual currency, or how to be a qualifying purchaser. Finally, it shows how to perfect a security interest, which is incredibly helpful for conducting business with virtual currencies.”

To put the importance of H.B. 4474 into perspective, Joseph Kelly, CEO of Unchained Capital — a Bitcoin financial services company based in Austin — told Cointelegraph that as a result of Texas’ cryptocurrency laws, Unchained and their clients now have greater legal certainty surrounding activities such as purchasing Bitcoin or accepting it as collateral for loans.

Prior to H.B. 4474, Kelly mentioned that Bitcoin was too new and different, noting that previous laws weren't well-suited to commercial transactions with Bitcoin. In turn, Kelly explained that unclear definitions or uncertain judicial treatments for Bitcoin create unnecessary risks for all parties: “States that don't move quickly to provide the sort of clarity such as H.B. 4474 leave their consumers and businesses at risk for disputes and potentially loss of funds.\"

Although this clarifies the commercial law status of digital assets, it’s important to point out that Texas was not the first state to pass such legislation. Caitlin Long, a Wyoming-based crypto proponent, previously told Cointelegraph that Texas became the 4th U.S. state to define virtual currency, falling behind Wyoming, Rhode Island and Nebraska.

From legislation to a constitutional amendment

While Texas appears to be following in the footsteps of other innovative states, members of the Texas Blockchain Council — an industry association that advocates for blockchain-centric public policy initiatives — shared that bigger plans are underway.

Lee Bratcher, president of the Texas Blockchain Council, told Cointelegraph that there are discussions to integrate Bitcoin into the Texas Constitution, potentially as a constitutional amendment. According to Bratcher, the Texas Constitution has been amended more than 500 times. As such, he noted that a Texas state amendment related to the utilization of cryptocurrency for the function of property tax payment is a possibility. Bratcher remarked:

“There is the idea for a Texas constitutional amendment to allow property tax payment in Bitcoin. This would put Bitcoin on par with gold at the Texas Comptroller's Office and Treasury.”

While integrating Bitcoin into the Texas Constitution may very well be a first for crypto-friendly states, Bratcher mentioned that such a proposal wouldn’t appear on state ballots until the year 2023: “This proposal will likely take years.” In the meantime, Bratcher mentioned that the Texas Blockchain Council is working closely with Texas House Representative Giovanni Capriglione on this project.

It’s also important to point out that other states such as Florida and Tennessee have recently been exploring ways to accept BTC for property tax payments. Jackson, Tennessee Mayor Scott Conger announced in July this year that the city’s blockchain task force is studying ways to allow for property taxes to be paid in Bitcoin. The news came shortly after Miami Mayor Francis Suarez announced the push for city employee salaries to be paid in BTC, while also allowing residents to pay fees in Bitcoin.

By implementing a Bitcoin amendment into the Texas Constitution, Texas aims to go above and beyond pure legislation. Peter Vogel, of counsel at Foley Lardner LLP, told Cointelegraph that constitutional amendments require a vote from the citizens in Texas, which would be a greater legal standard than enacted crypto laws from the Texas Legislature that are signed by the governor.

Challenges to consider

Even though Texas is taking unique measures to become one of the most crypto-friendly states in the United States, challenges remain that could hamper legislation moving forward.

For instance, Bratcher pointed out that the biggest obstacle for the continued growth of cryptocurrency in Texas is Washington, D.C. According to him, the lack of clarity around cryptocurrency from federal regulators has resulted in a number of Texas-based entrepreneurs relocating to crypto-friendly countries like Switzerland and Liechtenstein: “We don’t have control over the biggest issues we see at the federal level.”

Related: Crypto cowboys: Texas counties welcome Bitcoin miners with open arms

This notion has possibly been highlighted recently with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission threatening to sue Coinbase over its crypto yield program. With this in mind, Bratcher noted that while there is a positive crypto ecosystem in Texas, the Texas Blockchain Council is still attempting to make leeway with the State’s Securities Board. According to Bratcher, the Texas State Securities Board has been strict about interest-bearing accounts.

Additionally, Vogel commented that although Texas has passed and enacted crypto friend legislation, it’s important to see how these laws will be challenged in both Texas and federal courts:

“Until lawsuits are filed to present these laws to judges, it remains difficult to know how judges will rule to interpret either the constitutional amendment or enacted laws. Nevertheless, if the voters of Texas enact a constitutional amendment that would be an important milestone about how crypto is viewed in a larger social perspective.” \n\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/72461.22ec06d8-dc59-44b6-95b3-2b793424336d.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:15083,shares:264,tags:[{id:B,slug:el,title:G,url:cf},{id:lM,slug:lN,title:lO,url:lP},{id:fD,slug:gK,title:gL,url:gM},{id:"765",slug:"texas",title:"Texas",url:"/tags/texas"},{id:fw,slug:fx,title:fy,url:fz},{id:gr,slug:gs,title:gt,url:gu},{id:eX,slug:eY,title:eZ,url:ev}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=72461regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:e$,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"btc-price-crash-why-did-it-happen-join-sam-bankman-fried-live-on-the-market-report",url:lt,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/btc-price-crash-why-did-it-happen-join-sam-bankman-fried-live-on-the-market-report",title:gA,youtubeVideoIdCover:gS,cover:lv,datePublished:gT,dateHuman:gU,humanDateTime:"2021-09-09 17:00",dateISOFull:"2021-09-09T16:00:00+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:y,month:t,day:t,hour:gq,minute:f,second:f,millisecond:f},categorySlug:au,categoryUrl:ae,categoryName:F,authorName:fE,authorUrl:lQ,authorAvatar:lR,previewText:lu,twitterLeadText:"Why did Bitcoin crash but altcoins like SOL are now pumping? Find out on The Market Report, live now with FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried!",badgeSlug:"success",badgeName:lS,fullText:"

“The Market Report” with Cointelegraph is live right now! Tune in to watch Cointelegraph host and analyst Benton Yaun alongside resident market experts Jordan Finneseth and Yashu Gola. Today’s menu: the dramatic Bitcoin (BTC) price flash crash to $43,000 on Tuesday.

What caused the crash? Was it market manipulation, leverage liquidations, El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law, the SEC going after Coinbase — or a combination of these factors? This week’s markets news segment will break down the latest news and research to find out.

Next up, Gola and Finneseth will do a dive deep on the most important factors driving the markets during back-to-back expert takes. Gola will explore a correlation between the Bitcoin price crash, the gold market and the U.S. dollar index, while Finneseth takes a closer look at this week’s top altcoin performers.

The Cointelegraph experts will then identify altcoins that stood out this week with insights from Cointelegraph’s Markets Pro, a platform for crypto traders who want to stay one step ahead of the market.

Make sure to stick around for the show’s finale: an exclusive guest interview with billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and CEO of crypto exchange FTX. Bankman-Fried was named a Forbes 30 Under 30 in 2021. The interview will cover recent market movements, nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and assets that have the highest upside potential. You don’t want to miss it

“The Market Report” streams live every Thursday at 4:00 pm UTC, so be sure to head on over to  Cointelegraph's YouTube page and smash that like and subscribe button for all our future videos and updates.

\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/72404.88119f72-03ab-49d6-aaeb-fb503a057c63.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:12411,shares:fF,tags:[{id:B,slug:el,title:G,url:cf},{id:ex,slug:fA,title:fB,url:fC},{id:fG,slug:fH,title:lT,url:fI},{id:gN,slug:gO,title:gP,url:gQ},{id:"7680",slug:"price-analysis",title:"Price Analysis",url:"/tags/price-analysis"}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=72404regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:fa,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"bitcoin-tipping-on-twitter-a-game-changer-for-crypto-adoption",url:lw,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-tipping-on-twitter-a-game-changer-for-crypto-adoption",title:gB,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:ly,datePublished:gT,dateHuman:gU,humanDateTime:"2021-09-09 16:30",dateISOFull:"2021-09-09T15:30:03+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:y,month:t,day:t,hour:eo,minute:lU,second:r,millisecond:f},categorySlug:au,categoryUrl:ae,categoryName:F,authorName:"Shiraz Jagati",authorUrl:"/authors/shiraz-jagati",authorAvatar:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/45ade5ad276d28c066a2064a5175d3a3.jpg",previewText:lx,twitterLeadText:"Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey has repeatedly hinted that BTC is a big part of his company’s envisioned roadmap, but will it lead to any actions?",badgeSlug:ek,badgeName:lL,fullText:"

Amid all the recent price volatility seen by Bitcoin (BTC) and the rest of the crypto market, news of social media behemoth Twitter reportedly getting ready to enable Bitcoin tipping for content creators went relatively unnoticed.

Reports suggest that the latest Twitter iOS beta is being devised in a way that will help BTC become part of the company’s upcoming Tip Jar module. If implemented, the move could have a substantial impact on the global crypto landscape, as it might instill the confidence necessary for other companies operating within the social media space to follow suit.

Merrick Theobald, vice president of marketing at crypto payments firm BitPay, told Cointelegraph that as more major mainstream business entities like Twitter embrace crypto and openly support Bitcoin and blockchain tech, it will help to push the industry forward since “Blockchain payments are the best way to transact online,” adding: “Twitter’s desire to add Bitcoin to the Twitter Tipping Jar embraces this new and different approach to financial technology and will help accelerate adoption.”

Additionally, Theobald is intrigued by the prospect of the convergence of two great digital technologies — i.e., blockchain payments and tweets — especially as an increasing number of crypto holders seem to be looking for avenues to spend their digital assets. “The crypto market is huge with a total market cap exceeding $2+ trillion now,” he emphasized.

Crypto education and ease of use will drive Twitter’s BTC experiment

Despite growing awareness, the crypto industry is still in the early stages of widespread adoption, with most casual Twitter users as yet unaware of the technical ins and outs of this relatively nascent technology. For example, even many tech-savvy social media users may not be educated enough on how to buy, store and manage their digital assets and could overlook Twitter’s Bitcoin tipping payment option altogether.

Wes Levitt, head of strategy at Theta Labs — a decentralized peer-to-peer data streaming and delivery platform — seems to agree with this assessment but is also of the belief that if Twitter can make the entire crypto payment experience streamlined for its users, the company could be onto something, adding:

“This has a good chance of making it into production, given that Jack's a major Bitcoin supporter and holder. If his goal is widespread crypto adoption, he knows that exposing Twitter's 300m+ active users to Bitcoin is a great start.”

In his view, it is critical that users also have the option to fund their tips via linked PayPal accounts as well as other traditional services like Apple Pay and others so that they are not having crypto forced down their throats. “You need the feature to gain traction first before you hit users with the complexity of crypto transactions,” Levitt closed out by saying.

If the crypto tipping feature is, in fact, on its way, BTC will be added alongside traditional gateways like PayPal and Venmo as acceptable payment options on the Tip Jar. The rollout may also see Twitter providing its users with a succinct tutorial regarding Bitcoin and the Lightning Network. Finally, all Bitcoin-based tips will most likely be facilitated via the use of the aforementioned Lightning Network, driving down the costs surrounding making a transaction.

Not everyone is sold on the move

Though some believe that if Twitter were to adopt BTC it could have a major positive impact on the crypto ecosystem, not everyone seems to agree with this assessment. For example, Nimrod Lehavi, CEO of Simplex — a crypto payments infrastructure firm — told Cointelegraph that the BTC tipping jar is not necessarily a “killer feature,” elaborating:

“Crypto Twitter is indeed a very lively neighborhood but I really doubt if tipping is something that connects with opinion broadcasting. In social networks, if your opinion is valuable, you gain influence. And there are ways to monetize it.”

Even though the creation of such a tipping mechanism is quite straightforward in Lehavi’s eyes, the challenge will emerge when it comes to establishing on- and off-ramps that can help fulfill such a global vision. “It's a big question how users will load more credit to be able to tip and the influencers cashing out,” he added.

He suggested that even though Twitter may provide its users with an initial amount to tip others, it remains to be seen how things will proceed from there because if the move is successful, it could potentially lay the groundwork for many other companies to follow.

Twitter’s crypto foray already in the making?

It is worth highlighting that Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey had previously hinted that a Bitcoin tipping option was in the works — as early as May — when his social media firm revealed its “Tip Jar” concept was designed to enable platform users to reward content creators with the touch of a button.

That said, a Bitcoin tipping option seems to be just one of the many strings of BTC-focused adoption developments for the social media giant over the last few months, as earlier this year in August, Dorsey made his intentions clear when he announced his plans to build a decentralized exchange for Bitcoin.

Similarly, in July, Dorsey revealed that Square, an American financial services and digital payments company also owned by him, was also actively working on developing an “assisted custody” hardware wallet for Bitcoin.

Related: How to prepare for the end of the bull run, Part 1: Timing

Lastly, as per several interviews conducted earlier this year, Dorsey stated that he sees Bitcoin as being the key to Twitter’s future while noting that Twitter has a comprehensive roadmap that includes the use of BTC in relation to many of the company’s envisioned commercial and subscription-based activities.

If Twitter’s Bitcoin tipping option comes to fruition soon, it could set in motion a domino effect that could see not only social media companies but also other financial entities from various domains begin to strongly consider the use of digital assets as one of the ways to facilitate payments.

Furthermore, the move could also serve as a tipping point for crypto as a legitimate payment medium, especially in the eyes of those individuals who may be sitting on the fence when it comes to investing in digital assets. Not only that, but it will also help BTC to fulfill one of the most important use cases for cryptocurrencies — i.e., of a payment medium — espoused by its proponents for more than a decade now.

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/72406.15a39044-8828-49ec-bacd-de9391f3142b.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:6704,shares:73,tags:[{id:B,slug:el,title:G,url:cf},{id:lV,slug:fJ,title:fK,url:"/tags/twitter"},{id:"2067",slug:"bitcoin-payments",title:"Bitcoin Payments",url:"/tags/bitcoin-payments"},{id:"9441",slug:"jack-dorsey",title:"Jack Dorsey",url:"/tags/jack-dorsey"}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=72406regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:gC,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"project-giant-nigeria-s-cbdc-set-for-pilot-rollout-on-independence-day",url:lz,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/project-giant-nigeria-s-cbdc-set-for-pilot-rollout-on-independence-day",title:gD,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:lA,datePublished:gV,dateHuman:gW,humanDateTime:"2021-09-07 14:07",dateISOFull:"2021-09-07T13:07:00+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:y,month:t,day:V,hour:fb,minute:V,second:f,millisecond:f},categorySlug:au,categoryUrl:ae,categoryName:F,authorName:"Osato Avan-Nomayo",authorUrl:"/authors/osato-avan-nomayo",authorAvatar:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/b58e040c55f00e179dfedb67d282e067.jpg",previewText:"Nigeria’s central bank digital currency will go into pilot testing on Oct. 1 with a tiered AML/KYC regime for the eNaira.",twitterLeadText:"Will Nigeria’s central bank champion even greater crypto restrictions once its CBDC project goes online? ",badgeSlug:ek,badgeName:F,fullText:"

After four years of development, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is set to roll out its digital currency project. The launch will reportedly happen on the occasion of the country’s 61st Independence Day celebration on Oct. 1.

Nigeria’s central bank digital currency (CBDC) project comes amid significant anti-crypto policies from the CBN and negative cryptocurrency sentiments from several government officials. The digital naira is also coming at a time when its fiat counterpart has plunged to new lows, with the central bank enacting even tighter forex restrictions.

Details of the eNaira project circulated across commercial banks in the country show plans for strict identity verification mandates for utilizing the digital currency. The CBN plans to introduce a tiered ID verification system with different transaction limits for each tranche.

With CBDCs seen as governments’ response to cryptos and privately-issued stablecoins across the globe, there are concerns that more anti-cryptocurrency laws may emerge in Nigeria. Indeed, China upscaled its crypto crackdown activities as soon as its digital currency project moved into the public testing arena.

Bitcoin (BTC) adoption in Nigeria continues to expand, as cryptocurrencies offer easier remittance vehicles especially for the country’s diaspora population in supporting relatives and loved ones back home. Crypto also offers a means for the upwardly mobile and tech-savvy younger population to shield their wealth from the rapid debasement of the naira.

CBN selects Bitt Inc

As previously reported by Cointelegraph, the CBN selected Bitt Inc, a Barbados-based fintech outfit, as its technology partner for its CBDC project. According to the CBN, Bitt’s role in the development of the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank’s DCash digital currency project played a significant role in its decision to select the company.

In a press release issued on Aug. 30, the CBN identified Bitt’s “technological competence, efficiency, platform security, interoperability, and implementation experience” as among the reasons why the Barbadian tech company was the best candidate for the job. Indeed, Bitt was among 15 companies evaluated by the central bank for the tech partner role in the eNaira project.

All 15 companies in the evaluation process were reportedly accessed based on criteria such as Anti-Money Laundering protocols, technological efficiency, adoption, systems security architecture, and CBDC implementation experience, among others. Cointelegraph’s findings show that Bitt emerged with an aggregate score of about 82%, which was the highest among the 15 contenders.

Bitt was also the only company to score about 80% and was among only two firms with relevant experience in live CBDC operations. This fact also reportedly played into the sandbox evaluation stage conducted by the evaluators under Nigeria’s Public Procurement Act.

The CBN will likely be looking to leverage Bitt’s experience in the national digital currency space as well as the company’s CBDC management protocols to establish its eNaira project. Bitt has reportedly licensed its Digital Currency Management System to the CBN for the eNaira CBDC project.

While launching DCash back in April, Bitt CEO Brian Popelka identified the baked-in interoperability protocols in the design of the Eastern Caribbean CBDC. These features may likely prove pivotal in the central bank’s efforts to foster easier remittance flows for Nigerians using the eNaira digital currency.

Proposed eNaira operations

While announcing Bitt as its technology partner for the eNaira project, the CBN highlighted the “unmistakable” global CBDC trend among central banks. Indeed, matters relating to sovereign digital currencies are now commonplace among central banks, with some countries already conducting pilot studies on CBDCs.

In late August, the CBN reportedly sent a 57-page sensitization document to commercial banks in the country detailing proposed operating models for the eNaira project. According to a copy of the draft guidelines seen by Cointelegraph, Nigeria’s CBDC, dubbed “Project Giant,” is designed to act as a complementary form of legal tender to the country’s fiat. As such, the eNaira will maintain parity of value with the naira but will function as a non-interest-bearing CBDC.

In terms of the operating model for the eNaira, the CBN has reportedly proposed a hierarchical structure for the CBDC with the central bank at the apex of the pyramid, servicing financial institutions and government agencies that, in turn, provide the digital currency to merchants and retail consumers. Based on the draft guidelines, the CBN is looking to onboard both banked and unbanked Nigerians.

At least a third of Nigeria’s adult population is reportedly unbanked, with the CBN’s June 2018 estimate putting the figure closer to 37%. Of the over 47 million verified bank account holders in Nigeria, only a third are reported to be active in terms of banking transactions, possibly indicating that the majority of the country’s addressable market is still largely underbanked.

Related: Nigeria to pilot central bank digital currency in October

While the CBN appears keen to broaden the scope of financial access in the country with the eNaira project, the CBDC will employ a tiered identity verification model with a transaction limit attached to each tranche. According to the sensitization document, Tier 1 (the unbanked) will have to provide National Identity Verified phone numbers as well as other ID documents to qualify.

As previously reported by Cointelegraph, Tier 1 will have a 50,000 naira ($120) daily transaction limit. Existing bank account holders will fall under Tier 2 and Tier 3, with the distinction being the extent of their ID verification process.

Tier 2 and Tier 3 will have daily transaction limits of 200,000 naira ($487) and 1 million naira ($2,438), respectively. Beyond Tier 3 are merchants with a similar daily limit, but entities in this group will reportedly have no restriction on the amount of eNaira that can be withdrawn to their bank accounts daily.

CBN’s crypto ban

In February, the CBN banned banks and other financial institutions from servicing crypto exchanges in the country. As a result, Nigerian cryptocurrency traders are unable to fund trading accounts from their banks.

At the time, the central bank clarified that the move was not geared toward prohibiting crypto trading in Nigeria but to prevent the flow of cryptocurrencies within the country’s banking sector. In subsequent Senate hearings after the fact, some lawmakers agreed with the CBN’s position, saying Bitcoin had made the naira almost useless.

Since the ban, several commentators in the crypto and broader fintech space have argued that the prohibition does more harm than good. With the CBN moving to roll out its CBDC, there are concerns that even more stringent anti-crypto policies might be on the horizon.

Related: ‘Cryptocurrency is not legitimate money,’ says Nigeria’s central bank governor

In a conversation with Cointelegraph, Chiagozie Iwu, CEO of Nigerian crypto exchange platform Naijacrypto, said that the emergence of harsher anti-crypto laws was a possibility, stating:

“Yes, we expect the CBN to champion even more anti-crypto policies, as it is clear it sees crypto as a hindrance to its monetary policy objectives even though data confirms that as a fallacy. Every crypto company in Nigeria should innovate ways to work within a restrictive system and think about jurisdictional changes.”

Fears over a possible crypto crackdown appear to be hinged on the expectation that Nigeria may follow China’s footsteps in restricting cryptocurrencies in the wake of its own CBDC. Indeed, the CBN has previously highlighted policies enacted by the authorities in China and India as a justification for its anti-crypto stance.

For Iwu, Nigeria’s crypto community must pivot toward jurisdictional independence to prevent being caught under restrictive government policies. “Crypto by its nature is decentralized, the push towards more decentralized methods of utilizing blockchain innovations should be the primary push,” Iwu added.

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Cointelegraph's Markets Pro data intelligence service, which offers institutional-grade research tools for crypto traders, has shared the latest weekly VORTECS™ Report with its community of subscribers.

The full report, available only to subscribers, presents the past week's biggest-gaining tokens as identified by the platform's artificial intelligence tools and offers interpretations of the data that it provides to traders. Here are some of the highlights of the latest issue:

  • Three out of four altcoins with triple-digit weekly gains flash high VORTECS™ Scores before their prices peak.
  • Markets Pro subscribers take profit from FTM's and OGN's rallies thanks to the platform's data intelligence tools.
  • Assets with high VORTECS™ Scores keep yielding consistent average returns, with double-digit average ROIs coming after 24 and 48 hours.
  • All-time top coins: RUNE, AXS and VGX remain on top in terms of the number of days with high scores.
  • IOST and RLY ride well-timed NewsQuakes™ to generate hefty gains.
  • Altseason in full swing: Altcoins generate 17.8% weekly ROI against Bitcoin's 3.2%.

The VORTECS™ Score is an algorithmic indicator comparing historical market and social conditions around each coin to those currently observed. Exclusively available to subscribers of Cointelegraph Markets Pro, each asset's VORTECS™ Score indicates whether the present combination of the coin's market and social metrics is historically bullish, bearish or neutral.

Here is how it can be used to inform traders' decision-making.

Anticipating FTM's breakout

\\ FTM price vs. VORTECS™ Score. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Fantom's FTM added a staggering 127.08% to its value over the seven-day period. After the coin's price soared from around $0.50 to over $0.80 early in the week, its VORTECS™ Score held above 80 for a formidable 47 hours, even despite a correction kicking in. High VORTECS™ values above 80 are marked in dark green on the charts — like the one above — that compare a coin's price to its VORTECS™ Score.

The score dynamic thus suggested that the market and social conditions of FTM that were observed by the algorithm have been consistently ripe for further upside.

\\

Several hours after FTM's highest score of the week — 84 (red circle in the chart) — the asset continued its impressive run as its value further increased from $0.70 to $1.17. Some Markets Pro subscribers later reported having capitalized on the insight:

Foreshadowing OGN's second leg up

\\ OGN price vs. VORTECS™ Score. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Origin Protocol's OGN posted a series of ultra-high VORTECS™ Scores — reaching 87 in the early hours of Sept. 2 (red circle in the chart) — as its price fluctuated between $1.14 and $1.19. Less than 30 hours after the peak score was registered, the coin took off on a steep trajectory that saw it touch $1.36 the next day.

Judging from posts on the Markets Pro Discord server, community members managed to derive profits from this one, too:

In the crypto market, much like anywhere else, history doesn't exactly repeat itself — but it often rhymes. When history is represented by a collection of quantitative metrics, an industry-grade artificial intelligence tool like the VORTECS™ Score can support traders' decision-making by alerting them to the conditions under which an actionable rhyme is most likely to occur.

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions.

\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/72194.2462b8a0-c6ad-4c95-b23e-de4591c4d3dc.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:5649,shares:aw,tags:[{id:fG,slug:fH,title:lT,url:fI},{id:"2014",slug:"markets",title:lY,url:"/tags/markets"},{id:"4549",slug:"cryptomarket",title:"CryptoMarket",url:"/tags/cryptomarket"},{id:"9407",slug:ep,title:cg,url:"/tags/market-analysis"},{id:lZ,slug:l_,title:l$,url:ma},{id:"9541",slug:"markets-pro",title:gX,url:"/tags/markets-pro"}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=72194regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:eN,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"dreading-september-bitcoin-price-hopes-to-break-the-slump-trend",url:lE,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/dreading-september-bitcoin-price-hopes-to-break-the-slump-trend",title:gG,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:lG,datePublished:"2021-09-04",dateHuman:"Sep 04, 2021",humanDateTime:"2021-09-04 12:14",dateISOFull:"2021-09-04T11:14:00+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:y,month:t,day:s,hour:H,minute:eu,second:f,millisecond:f},categorySlug:au,categoryUrl:ae,categoryName:F,authorName:"Anirudh Tiwari",authorUrl:"/authors/anirudh-tiwari",authorAvatar:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/e1b112a9d013aa652ef8d401c395efa5.jpg",previewText:lF,twitterLeadText:"Bitcoin hits $50,000 while ushering in the worst performing month in the history of the asset. Could 2021 be an aberration to this trend?",badgeSlug:ek,badgeName:F,fullText:"

Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to break the $50,000 mark for over 10 days now. However, on Sept. 2, the premium cryptocurrency briefly surpassed the milestone, sending positive ripples across the market. Since then, the token has dropped below the mark to trade in the $49,000 range before rebounding to hit the $50,000 mark yet again on Sept. 3.

As Bitcoin often behaves in a cyclical pattern, a look at the monthly trends for September could reveal patterns in the price, which in turn could be helpful to gauge the outlook for the upcoming month. Historically, September has been one of the more lackluster months for BTC. A look at the monthly price data since 2013 reveals that the token has posted positive gains in September twice in eight years — in 2015 and 2016 — with a maximum of 6%, which could be considered to be almost flat.

Pete Humiston, manager of Kraken Intelligence — the research department of the Kraken exchange — told Cointelegraph about what this trend could mean for this year:

“September is historically Bitcoin's worst-performing month. That said, it has been verging on $50,000 for the past three weeks or so now. Should Bitcoin stage a breakout above this psychologically significant milestone, it could renew investor interest and spark the momentum needed to carry it all the way back to $60,000.”

In fact, BTC has posted red in September in four of the last five years, making it the bleakest period for the coin. However, the $50,000 mark is considered to be one of the significant resistance levels for this asset ever since it broke the barrier just days after Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk announced that the company had bought BTC worth $1.5 billion on Feb. 8, along with starting to accept Bitcoin as a payment method. The token briefly going past this resistance level at the onset of this month could be a positive sign for the asset.

Cointelegraph discussed the current scenario with Hunain Naseer, senior analyst at OKEx Insights — the research team at cryptocurrency exchange OKEx. He said, “As things stand today, BTC's struggle under $50,000 is the big fight bulls need to win before we can look at $60,000. The move from $50K to $60K is likely to be much faster than the current move between $40K to $50K.”

S2F model sees lesser deflection

Twitter user PlanB’s stock-to-flow (S2F) model has been one of the most accurate quantitative models that attempt to evaluate and forecast the price of Bitcoin. It does this based on the supply injections of the asset into circulation in a certain period. According to the model, the price of Bitcoin is supposed to have gone past $100,000 to exchange hands around the $105,000 mark.

However, BTC is currently recovering from a larger deflection from S2F at the end of July when it seemed like the model could be invalidated. This is not the first time that the price of Bitcoin negatively deviated from the model. The deviation began at the end of October 2018 and lasted until mid-June 2019 for a duration of nearly seven months. In comparison, the current ongoing negative variation has lasted only about three months. It is noteworthy here that for the rest of the year, the S2F model is considerably flat and forecasts a similar range at the beginning of the fourth quarter.

Naseer further discussed the model's forecasts in comparison to the market price, saying, “Given the current sentiment and long-term fundamentals, it is not out of the question for BTC to hit $100K by December, especially since October and November have historically been big months for Bitcoin. They could easily set it up to touch $100K by mid-December before any corrections.”

Concerning this model, Jake Wujastyk, chief market analyst at TrendSpider, a technical analysis software company, told Cointelegraph, “Based on using the measured move from the March 2020 low to the October 2020 candle (seven months), applying this measured move to the June 2021 low would put this right around $100,000 by the end of the year, assuming the move is the same.”

Related: Mass appeal: Could a Bitcoin futures EFT electrify US investors?

Even though the S2F model has been highly accurate in forecasting the price of Bitcoin until now, it is important to note that all technical indicators have their limitations. Humiston spoke more on the broader perspective of the cryptocurrency market, saying, “A move to $100,000 in four months would require a significant inflow of capital. While certainly not impossible, it seems improbable now that investors' attention has turned to alternative crypto assets such as Ether, Cardano and Solana.”

Altcoin boom may prevent $100K BTC this year

While Bitcoin has been slowly creeping towards the $50,000 mark and, in fact, struggling to hold it currently, altcoins like Ether (ETH), Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) have been on an absolute tear in the last few weeks.

According to data from CoinMarketCap, in the previous seven days at the time of writing, BTC has posted 6.40%. In comparison, altcoins have dwarfed these numbers, with SOL posting 73.83%, ETH posting 26.57% and ADA posting 15.97% in the same duration. SOL and ADA have recently posted new all-time highs as well in September.

This altcoin boom has put the Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) Index down to 41.46% at the time of writing, according to data from TradingView.com. This is similar to the levels it had reached back in June 2018. The CEO of crypto exchange KuCoin, Johnny Lyu, told Cointelegraph:

“It is important to understand how ETH and other altcoins are able to compete with BTC for the money of new investors and how those who have been on the market for a long time can behave[...] Crypto mass adoption cannot be achieved without the prosperity of altcoins. Many market participants believe that at the current price level, it is the value of altcoins that is more prone to a multiple increase.”

The price of Solana, for example, has grown more than 100 times since the beginning of the year. Even PlanB’s optimistic S2F model for BTC forecasts its value to be just over $100,000 by the end of the year, only three times the token’s value at the beginning of the year. Such vast differences in returns could even push investors to choose altcoins as their investment vehicle over Bitcoin.

However, the institutional interest in Bitcoin is seeing an upwind as compared with the levels seen in June and July. Microstrategy made yet another purchase of BTC on Aug. 24, this time worth $177 million. This amounts to a total of 105,085 BTC, valued at $5.2 billion currently and is 0.5% of the maximum supply of 21 million BTC.

Related: How to prepare for the end of the bull run, Part 1: Timing

Even one of the most prominent financial institutions globally, Citigroup Inc., is considering trading Bitcoin futures offered by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the largest derivatives exchange in the world. According to the recent report, the banking firm is waiting for regulatory approval to trade in this derivatives instrument.

Lyu further talked about how the growth of the cryptocurrency market as a whole is renewing institutional interest in the industry, stating, “The gradual recovery of institutional interest in cryptocurrency is already obvious. Positive news about SpaceX's investments in Bitcoin, the network upgrades of Ethereum in August and Cardano in September — all of this neutralizes the bear market of May and June and strengthens the confidence of market participants in further growth.”

Wujastyk also suggested that the price movements that Bitcoin has made over the last few months require the injection of large amounts of capital to move the market, which indicates that institutional capital is definitely involved. This market momentum that currently exists for both Bitcoin and altcoins could be the differentiating factor leading to a historically dreaded month for the cryptocurrency market.

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Are crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) finally coming to the United States of America? Dozens of cryptocurrency-based ETFs or ETF-like products are currently selling on regulated exchanges in Europe, while Canada and Brazil have already introduced their own versions this year. Over the past eight years, however, not a single investment firm has won the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission’s (SEC’s) approval for a cryptocurrency-backed ETF. The winds may now be shifting. 

“A futures-based Bitcoin ETF will be approved in the coming weeks, not months,” John Sarson, co-founder and CEO at Sarson Funds LLC, told Cointelegraph, adding that “the futures market for Bitcoin is now extremely well tested and very liquid at three years of age.”

The outlook wasn’t nearly as promising a month ago, but things gained momentum on Aug. 3rd when SEC chief Gary Gensler signaled in a statement that the U.S. regulatory agency was not necessarily opposed to futures-based Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs.

Gensler said that he was looking forward to his staff’s reviews of recent filings from firms looking to market exchange-traded funds with an indirect exposure to the world’s leading cryptocurrency, “particularly if those [fund offerings] are limited to CME” — i.e, Chicago Mercantile Exchange — “traded Bitcoin futures.”

“Gensler took us all by surprise,” Kathleen Moriarty, senior counsel at Chapman and Cutler LLP, commented to Cointelegraph. The Gensler statement, along with the subsequent withdrawal of Ethereum (ETH) ETF filings by fund administrators VanEck and ProShares, prompted two Bloomberg analysts to opine that a futures-based Bitcoin ETF could be approved as early as October.

Is this reading too much into the agency’s tea leaves? Is a futures-based BTC ETF really imminent, and if so, why can’t an ETF take direct ownership in Bitcoin? Gensler, who once headed the CFTC which regulates U.S. derivatives markets — including futures — may believe that a futures-based crypto ETF offers another layer of investor protection, i.e., CFTC oversight on top of SEC supervision.

Consider, too, that a futures-based BTC mutual fund, Bitcoin Strategy ProFund (BTCFX), won SEC approval in July without a lot of fanfare. Maybe the SEC is using futures-based crypto funds as a transition product to test the regulatory waters with physical-based crypto ETFs to follow in 2022, say, if all goes well. Then again, is a futures-based Bitcoin ETF really the best product for investors?

Are Bitcoin ETFs close at hand?

Chris Kuiper, vice president at CFRA Research, told Cointelegraph: “We only think it is a matter of time. Given that the SEC allows gold ETFs based on futures, it would be hard for them to not eventually approve a Bitcoin ETF also based on the now well-established Bitcoin futures market.”

How the Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart could interpret the VanEck and ProShares’ withdrawal of proposals for Ethereum ETFs as a good sign for crypto ETFs may be baffling at first glance, but as CEO of Banz Capital John Iadeluca explained to Cointelegraph: “While VanEck and ProShares' quickly withdrew their Ethereum futures ETF applications, they didn't do the same with their Bitcoin futures ETF applications, which seems to be a positive sign for approval of a Bitcoin ETF.” When those funds providers saw one door crack open, there was no need to surveil all doors, presumably.

Iadeluca further noted that when the Chicago Mercantile Exchange took its first steps into cryptocurrency futures, it began with Bitcoin futures, and Ethereum futures following several years later. “It would make sense for the same order to occur with futures ETFs, and the recent ETF application activity seems to hint at that happening sooner than expected,” Moriarty added:

“The other curious thing that no one has mentioned is that on May 11, 2021, the [SEC’s] Division of Investment Management issued a statement regarding its current views on funds registered under the 1940 Act investing in Bitcoin futures. The statement said that it does not yet permit the offering of 1940 Act-registered funds that are ETFs providing Bitcoin exposure by investing in Bitcoin futures.”

Clearly, some ambiguity remains. “About an October approval, it’s anyone’s guess,” said Moriarty, who worked with Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss on the first SEC filing for a Bitcoin ETF in 2013, ultimately rejected by the agency in 2017.

The best product for investors?

Why might the SEC approve a future-based crypto ETF before a physical-based one? After all, “futures-based Bitcoin funds don't directly invest in the cryptocurrency — don't track BTC as closely as physically held funds,” and they can be more costly, Kapil Rathi, CEO and co-founder of an institutional cryptocurrency exchange CrossTower, told Cointelegraph. The firm “is not convinced that it is the best vehicle for investors. It creates significant inefficiencies in terms of constant trading and roll-over costs.”

Neena Mishra, director of ETF Research at Zacks Investment Research, told Cointelegraph: “Investors would prefer physical Bitcoin ETFs, but if investors see no physical BTC coming, they will buy futures ETFs.” She thinks approval for the futures-based version is likely soon, perhaps in November.

Of course, this is not the crypto ETF that most were awaiting — Balchunas compared it to “serving O'Doul's [non-alcoholic beer] when the party wants real beer” — but Sarson, for one, was unperturbed.

“A futures-based BTC ETF will be very popular, just as futures-based commodity ETFs are very popular with investors,” he told Cointelegraph. “I think it will be hardly differentiated from a physical commodity ETF.” Nor will the “inevitable K-1” tax forms dissuade many from investing in the futures-based product, he added.

Could a futures-based ETF approval open the floodgates for other crypto-based ETFs in the U.S.? “The launch of a BTC ETF could bolster the prospects of ‘physical’ backed ETFs in the near future,” Rathi told Cointelegraph. Administrators looking to launch physical-backed ETFs could point to the functioning futures-based ETF as a sort of proof of concept. Rathi added: “They could present clear data to the SEC as to why a physical-backed ETF would be significantly better for investors than a futures-based ETF.”

Concerns about market manipulation

Another question is why the SEC (seemingly) believes that a futures-based Bitcoin ETF would offer more investor protection than one that invests directly in the digital currency. After all, “the commodity futures market has been beset by large-scale market manipulations since its beginning,” as law professor J.W. Markham wrote some years back, and it’s still an issue.

In April, U.S. regulators launched “one of the biggest oil market manipulation investigations in history” in which traders allegedly squeezed the oil futures markets.

Kuiper acknowledged that such a position would be “somewhat odd,” given that a key SEC concern with regard to Bitcoin ETFs is the lack of regulation around the spot market and worries about market manipulation, telling Cointelegraph:

“While the futures market is more regulated, futures are a derivative and therefore abstracted away from the underlying commodity. So, it seems like there should be more concern about potential market manipulation with the Bitcoin futures market given it is leveraged and cash settled, with no actual Bitcoin needing to be exchanged or settled with.”

Moreover, Rathi added:Gensler is solving for counterparty credit risk by supporting a futures ETF. He is also pushing for a product that the SEC has seen in the past, like VXX [a volatility ETF] and USO [an oil ETF], which are also based upon futures.” However, he believes that while a Bitcoin futures ETF “solves one issue, it creates significant cost inefficiency. It also increases the risk that futures market makers could try to game the trades that the ETF administrator would be making every month.”

As noted, the SEC approved ProFunds’ open-ended BTC mutual fund in July, which principally invests in Bitcoin futures contracts, and some believe that this approval spurred more fund administrators to file for futures-based Bitcoin ETF.

ETFs are increasingly popular vis-a-vis mutual funds due to their lower fees, tax efficiency, and ability to be traded like equities. Among the firms filing to offer futures-based Bitcoin ETFs in August were Invesco, VanEck, Valkyrie Digital Assets, Galaxy Digital and ProShares, an affiliate of ProFunds.

Timeline for a ‘physical’ Bitcoin fund

When can one expect a U.S. ETF that invests directly in digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum — i.e. the “real beer?” “A real Bitcoin ETF backed by holding and storing real Bitcoin — similar to GLD with gold — is still not likely,” co‑founder and chief investment officer at Toroso Investments Michael​ Venuto told Cointelegraph. The candidates for imminent approval are all Bitcoin strategies, he added, using futures and other securities “in an attempt to track the behavior of Bitcoin. The tracking error could be quite high.”

Mishra sees the futures-based Bitcoin ETFs as a transition product. Multiple U.S. approvals could come in November, and if they function smoothly, then the SEC might approve physical ETFs in the first half of 2022, perhaps.

When both futures and physical ETFs are finally available to investors, Mishra expects the physical ETF to be more popular than the futures-based one. Indeed, many of those holding futures-based Bitcoin ETFs might well migrate to the physical ETFs.

Related: The great crypto flippening: Can Ethereum overtake Bitcoin?

What about an Ethereum ETF? “No time soon,” said Mishra, adding that it is only likely after a physical BTC ETF is finally approved. Would approval of a physical-backed ETF in the U.S. be a big event? “Generally, it would be positive for the crypto world,” she told Cointelegraph. Many investors have shied away from investing in crypto because of security concerns, like losing access to their wallets. “An ETF would be safer and easier to trade.”

Overall, it appears that a futures-based crypto ETF might be easier for the SEC to approve at this juncture, even if its Bitcoin tracking is imperfect and its fees are higher. It could play a positive role as a transition product, getting both investors and regulators more comfortable with the new crypto ecosystem. That said, “a physical backed ETF, more along the lines of GLD, would clearly be the optimal vehicle for investors,” as Rathi told Cointelegraph.

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0,2,0,"_self",null,1,"USD","default","EUR","GBP","JPY","RUR","KRW","TRY",3,4,9,"en","CNY","1","Language",2021,"EOS","NEO","4","changelly-button","2","18.84 m","Analysis","Bitcoin",11,"https://hitbtc.com/?ref_id=5cba0be404aa3",10,"es",5,"xxs","xs","sm","md","lg",6,"13","adbutler","8",7,"https://changelly.com?utm_source=cointelegraphutm_medium=referralutm_campaign=changellyctengbuttonref_id=le9ssi8dgmskmqu0","hitbtc-button","promo_button","11","23","7",79,138,"0.18","article","/category/analysis","cointelegraph.com","https://cointelegraph.us3.list-manage.com/subscribe/post-json?u=2c088712615955cd2f82aa968id=7376af3992","https://cointelegraph.us3.list-manage.com/subscribe/post-json?u=2c088712615955cd2f82aa968id=aad9f6b505","21","17","22","26","27",48,"/bitcoin-cash-price-index","/ltc-price-index","/xrp-price-index","/xmr-price-index","_blank","12","analysis","en.LanguageType.1",47,51,"BTC","/bitcoin-price","ETH","Ethereum","/ethereum-price","3","LTC","Litecoin","XRP","Ripple","6","BCH","Bitcoin Cash","XMR","Monero","DASH","Dash","/dash-price-index","9","/eos-price-index","ZEC","Zcash","/zec-price-index","ADA","Cardano","/ada-price-index","/neo-price-index","14","TRX","TRON","/tron-price-index","15","BNB","Binance Coin","/binance-coin-price-index","16","XLM","Stellar","/stellar-price-index","USDT","Tether","/tether-price-index","18","MIOTA","IOTA","/iota-price-index","19","ONT","Ontology","/ontology-price-index","20","MKR","Maker","/maker-price-index","BSV","Bitcoin SV","/bsv-price-index","DOGE","Dogecoin","/doge-price-index","ETC","Ethereum Classic","/etc-price-index","24","XTZ","Tezos","/xtz-price-index","XEM","NEM","/nem-price-index","USDC","USD Coin","/usdc-price-index","28","CRO","Crypto.com Coin","/crypto-com-price-index","29","ATOM","Cosmos","/cosmos-price-index","30","LEO","UNUS SED LEO","/leo-price-index","1.00","3.09 b","0.85","0.13","/tags/bitcoin","Market Analysis",8,"Y2hhbmdlbGx5LWJ1dHRvbg==","Changelly",50,95,821447.41,"821.45 k",18812887,"18.81 m",6188319.8,"6.19 m",117481847.749,"117.48 m",13277547.54,"13.28 m",66752614.51538747,"66.75 m",3871278220.51,"3.87 b",99990277229,"99.99 b",8676882.54,"8.68 m",18843181.25,677183.53,"677.18 k",17990917.23395086,"17.99 m",1451708.7,"1.45 m",10326315.75314549,"10.33 m",267271881.46,"267.27 m",1033893367.2618,"1.03 b",1624281.67,"1.62 m",12627543.75,"12.63 m",2983405201.93,"2.98 b",33117618880.453,"33.12 b",7634979.29,"7.63 m",100000000,"100.00 m",22607072470.05,"22.61 b",100850743811.662,"100.85 b",4309708.43,"4.31 m",168137036,"168.14 m",1991411992.52,"1.99 b",50001802812.44143,"50.00 b",84369085078.73,"84.37 b",71362085235.95035,"71.36 b",87937420.42,"87.94 m",2779530283,"2.78 b",133278435.68,"133.28 m",1000000000,"1.00 b",45961.31,"45.96 k",991328.38195493,"991.33 k",1851775.85,"1.85 m",18839707.89423905,5213825163.68,"5.21 b",131241754313.40382,"131.24 b",15232035.05,"15.23 m",210700000,"210.70 m",343761198.14,"343.76 m",888621713.993148,"888.62 m",292289906.04,"292.29 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Before trading, we recommend to make sure that you have a clear understanding of cryptocurrencies and how they are traded.","side","youtube",14,"/tags/regulation","en.LanguageType.2","72","Large devices"," 1200px","Medium devices"," 992px","Small tablets"," 768px","Smartphones"," 480px","Extra small devices","