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BTC price hits $57K five-month high — 5 things to watch in BTC this week

by Donna Ryder

Bitcoin price action beats last week’s local high to edge ever closer into final resistance before all-time highs of $64,500.

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BTC price hits $57K five-month high — 5 things to watch in BTC this week

Bitcoin (BTC) is in top form — almost literally — as it heads into a new week less than 15% away from all-time highs.

A classic cocktail of factors has laid the foundation for a fourth-quarter finale, which analysts are now confidently comparing to the bull runs of 2013 and 2017.

Decoupling from macro market movements and the U.S. dollar, Bitcoin is once again looking like the gold alternative that investors want — all while altcoins slip away.

With “Uptober” still only in its second full week, Cointelegraph takes a look at what might lie in store for BTC price action over the coming days.

Altcoins lag ahead of “Bitcoin season”

Things are looking rosy as the week begins for Bitcoin traders — last week’s four-month highs are back and beaten.

With the exception of a curious anomaly on exchange Bitstamp, which saw a momentary wick down to $51,000, a quiet weekend preserved previous gains.

Now seemingly lining up an attack on the final resistance below all-time highs of $64,500, BTC price action is delighting market participants.

There’s a further aspect behind Bitcoin’s strength, however — one that could preserve further upside in the short term.

Altcoins are underperforming, leading to predictions of a “Bitcoin season” before some form of alt season reemerges later on. As Cointelegraph reported, this might not be until 2022 .

The situation is particularly visible in Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin by market capitalization, which is now at its lowest against BTC since the start of August.

“ETH/BTC breaking down, while Bitcoin consolidating,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized on Oct. 10.

“I’m assuming Bitcoin continues, while altcoins are not getting the game yet.” ETH/BTC 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Van de Poppe nonetheless suggested a contentious cycle price peak for ETH/USD of up to $20,000, with a timeframe of Q1 2022.

“You are here”

It takes a lot to please Bitcoiners when it comes to BTC price action.

As any longtime inhabitant of Crypto Twitter will know, even the most unexpected moves in BTC/USD can only satisfy sentiment for so long before investors demand more.

Last week was no exception: Bitcoin gained $3,000 in minutes, added $5,000 in an hour and hit four-month highs — but days later, commentators complained of being “bored.”

The weight of expectations for Bitcoin in 2021 — the year after the third halving and, therefore, the deadline for a halving cycle price top — is palpable.

How far BTC price could rise is a matter of intense debate, and while some argue that $200,000 or even $300,000 is “programmed,” others are already losing faith, claiming that this cycle cannot be like the last two.

Comparing post-halving years, however, appears to deliver an almost unanimous verdict on Bitcoin’s chances: The main rise to a blow-off top has yet to begin.

September’s dip below $40,000, for example, echoes similar events in 2013 and 2017. These came immediately before liftoff, acting as the “ultimate” bear trap.

Overlaying 2021 price performance onto that from 2017 likewise produces uncanny similarities.

All these findings, from popular trading account TechDev, point to this year’s peak being an order of magnitude above the last. Technical or not, the analyst argues, a six-figure high is all but logically guaranteed.

The similarities, meanwhile, are nothing new, with various sources charting the extent of price conformity to previous post-halving years throughout 2021.

One day, $31 billion settled

A lot of attention has focused on Bitcoin’s network fundamentals throughout the 2020–2021 bull run, but there’s more.

With the hash rate and difficulty all but recovered and nearing all-time highs, fresh data shows that other aspects of Bitcoin are setting records of their own.

This week, it’s about network capacity and scaling — all on-chain, before the Lightning Network is even factored in.

As noted by analyst Kevin Rooke, a single day last week saw Bitcoin handle over $30 billion of value.

“$31 billion. That’s how much value was settled on the Bitcoin blockchain in a single day this week,“ he commented.

“It’s a new all-time high for Bitcoin, and a 40x jump in settlement value since 2020 began.” Bitcoin daily transaction volume chart. Source: Kevin Rooke/Twitter

The impressive transformation has been accompanied by consistency in cost — Bitcoin transaction fees remain low .

Questions over GBTC

The countdown to a decision on a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) continues to excite this week — but is an approval already “priced in?”

While U.S. regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission has pushed back the deadline on deciding the fate of spot-based Bitcoin ETFs to November, this month will see a “yes” or “no” on futures-backed ETF products.

The latter have attracted praise and criticism in equal measure , while a question mark also hangs over the fate of existing institutional Bitcoin instruments, notably market heavyweight the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

Against a rapidly rising Bitcoin price, GBTC continues to trade at a significant discount to spot price, and that trend has only deepened in recent weeks.

GBTC Premium chart. Source: Bybt

Should ETFs get the go-ahead, analysts argue that ever more capital will flow into them, long ahead of Grayscale itself converting its funds to ETFs.

For macro analyst Lyn Alden Schwartzer, the chances of the so-called “Grayscale premium” returning to even neutral territory seem slim.

“I doubt it, but it’s not impossible for it to happen if there is a huge bitcoin rally and no ETF available at the time,” she responded when asked in a social media discussion over the weekend.

Alden was updating research from last year in which she had highlighted the role of GBTC in Bitcoin price action. The relative absence of the phenomenon now, she said, is conversely positive for the sustainability of BTC price performance.

Sustainable greed?

For those concerned that the return to four-month highs has been accompanied by market instability, think again.

Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, DOT, UNI, LINK, XMR

According to the Crypto Fear Greed Index sentiment gauge, the latest BTC price uptick is firmly rooted in sustainable growth.

This contrasts with the norm — moves to highs, and especially near all-time highs, tend to see the index reach “extreme greed.” This, in turn, suggests an unsustainable market that is easy to destabilize, sparking a price correction.

So far, while near $57,000, the Fear Greed Index measures only 71/100 — “greed” rather than “extreme greed” and still far from the classic top area of 95/100 and higher.

Crypto Fear Greed Index as of Oct. 11. Source: Alternative

October has nonetheless produced major changes in sentiment. On Sept. 30, for example — just two weeks ago — the index measured 20/100, or “extreme fear.”

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There’s a further aspect behind Bitcoin’s strength, however — one that could preserve further upside in the short term.

Altcoins are underperforming, leading to predictions of a “Bitcoin season” before some form of alt season reemerges later on. As Cointelegraph reported, this might not be until 2022 .

$BTC dom vs #ALTSEASON Alts bleeding out again as we speak, most down around 10-20% vs the BTC pair since this post

Each 1% = roughly a 10% drop vs BTC ratios

Volatile week ahead w/etf not conductive to high alt exposure

Remember long alts is equivalent to short btc short vol https://t.co/hWQulj6Qo7 pic.twitter.com/nv11k4IUHZ

— Pentoshi Won’t Dm You. hates Dm’s. DM's are scams (@Pentosh1) October 10, 2021 \n\n

The situation is particularly visible in Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin by market capitalization, which is now at its lowest against BTC since the start of August.

“ETH/BTC breaking down, while Bitcoin consolidating,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized on Oct. 10.

“I’m assuming Bitcoin continues, while altcoins are not getting the game yet.” ETH/BTC 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Van de Poppe nonetheless suggested a contentious cycle price peak for ETH/USD of up to $20,000, with a timeframe of Q1 2022.

“You are here”

It takes a lot to please Bitcoiners when it comes to BTC price action.

As any longtime inhabitant of Crypto Twitter will know, even the most unexpected moves in BTC/USD can only satisfy sentiment for so long before investors demand more.

Last week was no exception: Bitcoin gained $3,000 in minutes, added $5,000 in an hour and hit four-month highs — but days later, commentators complained of being “bored.”

The weight of expectations for Bitcoin in 2021 — the year after the third halving and, therefore, the deadline for a halving cycle price top — is palpable.

How far BTC price could rise is a matter of intense debate, and while some argue that $200,000 or even $300,000 is “programmed,” others are already losing faith, claiming that this cycle cannot be like the last two.

Comparing post-halving years, however, appears to deliver an almost unanimous verdict on Bitcoin’s chances: The main rise to a blow-off top has yet to begin.

September’s dip below $40,000, for example, echoes similar events in 2013 and 2017. These came immediately before liftoff, acting as the “ultimate” bear trap.

You are here. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/syDyfsmlV1

— TechDev (@TechDev_52) October 9, 2021 \n\n

Overlaying 2021 price performance onto that from 2017 likewise produces uncanny similarities.

All these findings, from popular trading account TechDev, point to this year’s peak being an order of magnitude above the last. Technical or not, the analyst argues, a six-figure high is all but logically guaranteed.

The similarities, meanwhile, are nothing new, with various sources charting the extent of price conformity to previous post-halving years throughout 2021.

One day, $31 billion settled

A lot of attention has focused on Bitcoin’s network fundamentals throughout the 2020–2021 bull run, but there’s more.

With the hash rate and difficulty all but recovered and nearing all-time highs, fresh data shows that other aspects of Bitcoin are setting records of their own.

This week, it’s about network capacity and scaling — all on-chain, before the Lightning Network is even factored in.

As noted by analyst Kevin Rooke, a single day last week saw Bitcoin handle over $30 billion of value.

“$31 billion. That’s how much value was settled on the Bitcoin blockchain in a single day this week,“ he commented.

“It’s a new all-time high for Bitcoin, and a 40x jump in settlement value since 2020 began.” \\ Bitcoin daily transaction volume chart. Source: Kevin Rooke/Twitter

The impressive transformation has been accompanied by consistency in cost — Bitcoin transaction fees remain low .

Questions over GBTC

The countdown to a decision on a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) continues to excite this week — but is an approval already “priced in?”

While U.S. regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission has pushed back the deadline on deciding the fate of spot-based Bitcoin ETFs to November, this month will see a “yes” or “no” on futures-backed ETF products.

The latter have attracted praise and criticism in equal measure , while a question mark also hangs over the fate of existing institutional Bitcoin instruments, notably market heavyweight the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

Against a rapidly rising Bitcoin price, GBTC continues to trade at a significant discount to spot price, and that trend has only deepened in recent weeks.

GBTC Premium chart. Source: Bybt

Should ETFs get the go-ahead, analysts argue that ever more capital will flow into them, long ahead of Grayscale itself converting its funds to ETFs.

For macro analyst Lyn Alden Schwartzer, the chances of the so-called “Grayscale premium” returning to even neutral territory seem slim.

“I doubt it, but it’s not impossible for it to happen if there is a huge bitcoin rally and no ETF available at the time,” she responded when asked in a social media discussion over the weekend.

Bitcoin's performance exceeded the base case that I wrote about it in 2020, partly due to the GBTC neutral arbitrage trade which pulled forward temporary extra demand.

Now it's back on a more sustainable path imo, driven by HODLer accumulation. Looks good, let's see. https://t.co/RlPWBZYtNE pic.twitter.com/B99jQ1eIAt

— Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) October 9, 2021 \n\n

Alden was updating research from last year in which she had highlighted the role of GBTC in Bitcoin price action. The relative absence of the phenomenon now, she said, is conversely positive for the sustainability of BTC price performance.

Sustainable greed?

For those concerned that the return to four-month highs has been accompanied by market instability, think again.

Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, DOT, UNI, LINK, XMR

According to the Crypto Fear Greed Index sentiment gauge, the latest BTC price uptick is firmly rooted in sustainable growth.

This contrasts with the norm — moves to highs, and especially near all-time highs, tend to see the index reach “extreme greed.” This, in turn, suggests an unsustainable market that is easy to destabilize, sparking a price correction.

So far, while near $57,000, the Fear Greed Index measures only 71/100 — “greed” rather than “extreme greed” and still far from the classic top area of 95/100 and higher.

\\ Crypto Fear Greed Index as of Oct. 11. Source: Alternative

October has nonetheless produced major changes in sentiment. On Sept. 30, for example — just two weeks ago — the index measured 20/100, or “extreme fear.”

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Ether (ETH) price is lagging Bitcoin's (BTC) price action by 13% in October, but is this relevant? To date, the altcoin has still outperformed BTC by 274% in 2021. However, traders tend to be short-sighted and some will question whether the Ethereum network can successfully migrate to proof of stake (PoS) validation and finally solve the high gas fees issue.

Bitcoin and Ether prices at Bitstamp. Source: TradingView

Moreover, the increasing competition from smart contract networks like Solana (SOL) and Avalanche (AVAX) have been worrying investors:

One big problem with the “ETH is ultra sound money” meme is that EIP-1559 only limits the supply of ETH if Ethereum continues to have lots of transactions. It’s just as possible that people will tire of $80 gas fees and opt for one of numerous alternatives (SOL, AVAX, etc).

— dennis in SF // OP_CTV (@pourteaux) October 8, 2021 \n\n

According to Cointelegraph, the recent speculation over the possible approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) raised traders' appetite for BTC. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to announce its decision on multiple ETF requests over the next couple of weeks. However, it remains a possibility that the regulator will postpone these dates.

Pro traders are unfazed by the recent price stagnation

To determine whether professional traders are leaning bearish, one should start by analyzing the futures premium — also known as the basis rate. This indicator measures the price gap between futures contract prices and the regular spot market.

Ether's quarterly futures are the preferred instruments of whales and arbitrage desks. These derivatives might seem complicated for retail traders due to their settlement date and price difference from spot markets, but their most significant advantage is the lack of a fluctuating funding rate.

Ether three-month futures basis rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

The three-month futures typically trade with a 5% to 15% annualized premium follows the stablecoin lending rate. By postponing settlement, sellers demand a higher price, and this causes the price difference.

As depicted above, Ether's failure to break the $3,600 resistance has not caused a shift in pro traders' sentiment because the basis rate remains at a healthy 13%. This shows that there is no excessive optimism at the moment.

Retail traders have been neutral for the past five weeks

Retail traders tend to opt for perpetual contracts (inverse swaps), where a fee is charged every eight hours to balance the leverage demand. To understand if some panic selling occurred, one must analyze the futures markets funding rate.

Ether perpetual futures 8-hour funding rate. Source: Bybt

In neutral markets, the funding rate tends to vary from 0% to 0.03% on the positive side. This fee is equivalent to 0.6% per week and indicates that longs are the ones paying it.

Since Sept. 7, there hasn't really been any indication of high leverage demand from either bulls or bears. This balanced situation reflects retail traders' lack of appetite for leverage long positions, but at the same time shows little panic selling or excessive fear.

Derivatives markets show that Ether investors are not worried about the recent underperformance versus Bitcoin. Furthermore, the lack of excessive long leverage after a 274% gain year-to-date should be positively portrayed.

By leaving some room for bullishness without compromising the derivatives market structure, Ether traders seem prepared for a rally above its all-time high, especially if a Bitcoin ETF is approved.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

\n\n\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74161.eab41f88-5626-46fb-bf89-c94294e3effe.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:3649,shares:32,tags:[{id:w,slug:cy,title:I,url:aJ},{id:fD,slug:fE,title:fF,url:fG},{id:gh,slug:fH,title:hk,url:fI},{id:mw,slug:hl,title:_,url:gi},{id:aK,slug:aL,title:ao,url:aM},{id:mx,slug:my,title:mz,url:mA},{id:mB,slug:mC,title:mD,url:mE},{id:"8592",slug:"futures",title:"Futures",url:"/tags/futures"},{id:"9347",slug:"regulation",title:"Regulation",url:hm},{id:fJ,slug:A,title:v,url:fK},{id:"9502",slug:"ethereum-options",title:"Ethereum Options",url:"/tags/ethereum-options"},{id:mF,slug:mG,title:mH,url:mI}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74161regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:fC,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"bitcoin-price-is-correcting-but-what-does-futures-data-show",url:ml,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-is-correcting-but-what-does-futures-data-show",title:hb,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:mm,datePublished:aS,dateHuman:"4 hours ago",humanDateTime:"2021-10-12 19:05",dateISOFull:"2021-10-12T18:05:00+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:D,month:u,day:N,hour:fL,minute:Z,second:f,millisecond:f},categorySlug:A,categoryUrl:M,categoryName:v,authorName:mt,authorUrl:mu,authorAvatar:mv,previewText:"BTC price rejected near $58,000, but derivatives data shows traders positioned neutral-to-bullish, leaving sufficient “room” for a new all-time high in 2021.",twitterLeadText:"Bitcoin's rejection near $58,000 hasn't changed traders' desire to hit a new all-time high, but @noshitcoins says data shows bulls are being extremely careful this time around. ",badgeSlug:gg,badgeName:v,fullText:"

Bitcoin had been underperforming against most altcoins ov the past two months, but that trend reversed when its 20% rally pushed its market capitalization to break the $1 trillion mark on Oct. 6. That shifted investors’ attention back to the leading cryptocurrency, and altcoins are currently in the red for the day.

The current positive momentum could be dangerous if Bitcoin (BTC) traders become overconfident and abuse leverage to open long positions. To avoid this, traders need to carefully analyze derivatives markets to exclude this risk.

Top 14 coins weekly performance. Source: CoinMarketCap

Notice above how the altcoin market capitalization increased by 5.8%, while Bitcoin posted a 20.8% gain in the same period. Sure enough, there were some outliers such as Shiba Inu (SHIB), which rose by 200%, Fantom (FTM), which rallied 60%, and Klaytn (KLAY), which gained 36%. However, the aggregate market capitalization from altcoins did not accompany Bitcoin’s performance.

Some well-known personalities have spoken up, such as billionaire Wall Street investor Bill Miller, who recently expressed his optimism for Bitcoin while raising concerns regarding most altcoin projects. Miller explicitly mentioned the “big banks” getting involved and referred to “huge amounts” of venture capital money flowing into Bitcoin.

The recent Bitcoin frenzy seems driven by the macroeconomic scenario. The United States increased its debt limit by $480 billion to pay off its obligations until early December. The inflationary pressure brought by unending stimulus packages and meager interest rates has been fueling the long rally in commodities.

For example, oil reached its highest level in seven years and wheat futures recently hit a record high not seen since February 2013. Even the SP Case-Shiller home price index has presented an annualized 23.3% gain.

To understand if Bitcoin traders got overly excited, traders should analyze Bitcoin’s derivatives indicators like the futures markets premium and options skew.

The futures premium shows traders are slightly bullish

The basis rate measures the difference between longer-term futures contracts and the current spot market levels. This indicator is also frequently referred to as the futures premium.

\\ Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized basis. Source: Laevitas

A 5% to 15% annualized premium is expected in healthy markets, which is a situation known as “contango.” This price difference is caused by sellers demanding more money to withhold settlement longer.

The recent 20% Bitcoin price rally caused the indicator to reach the upper limit of this neutral zone, meaning investors are bullish but not yet overconfident. Whenever buyers demand excessive leverage, the basis rate can easily surpass 25%, as seen in mid-May.

To exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument, one should also analyze options markets.

Bitcoin options signal “neutral” sentiment

The 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options. This metric will turn positive whenever “fear” is prevalent because traders expect potential downside.

The opposite holds when option traders are bullish, causing the 25% delta skew indicator to shift to the negative area. Readings between -8% and +8% are usually deemed neutral.

Deribit BTC options 25% delta skew. Source: Laevitas

The above chart shows that there hasn’t been a single instance of options traders becoming overconfident in the past six months, which would signal “greed” because the 25% delta skew dropped below -8%. Meanwhile, the indicator has ranged near 0 for the past week, showing balanced risks between the bears and bulls.

Those findings necessarily show a lack of confidence from buyers, but it is quite the opposite. Had Bitcoin bulls already been overly confident at $57,000, there would be little room for additional leverage, increasing the risk of a cascading liquidation if a momentary price correction occurred.

Bulls are modestly confident, and even a 20% price correction is unlikely to change the situation because the futures market’s basis rate shows a reasonable premium after the recent rally.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74159.cf63e7e6-8607-45ba-ac55-ce63acb2ee75.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:9499,shares:ey,tags:[{id:w,slug:cy,title:I,url:aJ},{id:fD,slug:fE,title:fF,url:fG},{id:ez,slug:eA,title:eB,url:eC},{id:aK,slug:aL,title:ao,url:aM},{id:mx,slug:my,title:mz,url:mA},{id:mB,slug:mC,title:mD,url:mE},{id:"2854",slug:"inflation",title:"Inflation",url:"/tags/inflation"},{id:"7537",slug:"bitcoin-futures",title:"Bitcoin Futures",url:"/tags/bitcoin-futures"},{id:fJ,slug:A,title:v,url:fK},{id:"9501",slug:"bitcoin-options",title:"Bitcoin Options",url:"/tags/bitcoin-options"}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74159regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:eD,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"bitcoin-60k-resistance-hints-at-buy-the-dip-opportunity-before-all-time-highs-analyst",url:mn,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-60k-resistance-hints-at-buy-the-dip-opportunity-before-all-time-highs-analyst",title:hc,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:mo,datePublished:aS,dateHuman:"6 hours ago",humanDateTime:"2021-10-12 17:34",dateISOFull:"2021-10-12T16:34:29+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:D,month:u,day:N,hour:hn,minute:34,second:mJ,millisecond:f},categorySlug:A,categoryUrl:M,categoryName:v,authorName:fy,authorUrl:fz,authorAvatar:ga,previewText:"Bid and ask levels are flipping bullish as BTC/USD heads towards $60,000, data shows.",twitterLeadText:"BTC order book data is suggesting similarities to August, not September.",badgeSlug:j,badgeName:gX,fullText:"

Bitcoin (BTC) liquidity is changing — and it could mean that hodlers will get a fresh “buy the dip” opportunity.

As noted by on-chain analyst Material Scientist on Oct. 12, order book movements are now repeating behavior from August.

Order book data boosts bull case

What was Bitcoin’s initial “renaissance” month after hitting mid-cycle lows of $29,000, August encouraged bullish perspectives to return before a sideways September entered.

October, or “Uptober,” has since taken the mood back to bullish, and order book data proves it.

“Resistance at 60K — First time since August that asks bids within 20% of price,” Material Scientist commented.

“If we get rejected it would provide a nice dip-buying opportunity on the path to ATH.” Bitcoin bid/ ask data vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Material Scientist/ Twitter

In other words, as BTC/USD has neared $60,000, more sellers are demanding higher prices for BTC — within 20% of spot price.

As other users have added, the divergences between the bid and ask orders have coincided with local spot price tops and bottoms, further adding to the optimism over current price action.

Resistance \"won't matter\" months from now

As Cointelegraph reported, meanwhile, analysts are split over when a potential correction could happen and how far it could extend.

Related: BTC price hits $57K five-month high — 5 things to watch in BTC this week

With as low as $45,000 still in play, yet against a lack of overall selling interest, Bitcoin is keeping investors guessing as it grinds towards all-time highs.

“Macro-wise, BTC is gearing up for the second part of its cycle. That said, $BTC is at its final major resistance area before new All-Time Highs,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital reasoned on Oct. 12.

“In the short-term, this resistance area may matter. But months from now — it won’t.” BTC/USD buy/ sell levels (Binance) as of Oct. 12. Source: Material Indicators \n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74158.6daf85b9-311b-4791-b286-f96a597add0e.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:10345,shares:90,tags:[{id:w,slug:cy,title:I,url:aJ},{id:ez,slug:eA,title:eB,url:eC},{id:aK,slug:aL,title:ao,url:aM}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74158regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:eO,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"ethereum-loses-key-support-level-as-eth-price-falls-to-two-month-lows-against-bitcoin",url:hd,absoluteUrl:mK,title:gd,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:he,datePublished:aS,dateHuman:mL,humanDateTime:"2021-10-12 13:53",dateISOFull:"2021-10-12T12:53:47+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:D,month:u,day:N,hour:N,minute:ho,second:ar,millisecond:f},categorySlug:A,categoryUrl:M,categoryName:v,authorName:ff,authorUrl:fg,authorAvatar:hp,previewText:"ETH/BTC dropped below its 200-day exponential moving average for the first time since March 2020, raising risks of more downside. ",twitterLeadText:"Ethereum's value against Bitcoin dropped below its 200-day EMA for the first time since March 2020. ",badgeSlug:gg,badgeName:v,fullText:"

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), rallied by more than 15% in the first 12 days of October. But, compared to Bitcoin’s (BTC) 30% gains in the same period, the second-largest cryptocurrency is currently in a downtrend when priced in BTC.

So far into October (and the fourth quarter of 2021), the ETH/BTC exchange rate has plunged by over 12%, reaching 0.060215 BTC for the first time in more than two months on Oct. 12.

\\ ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The drop also pushed ETH/BTC below one of its longest-standing support zones, the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the orange wave), as shown in the chart above. This raises the risk of more downside with 0.055304 BTC serving as the next possible target.

Bitcoin dominance rises on ETF hopes

More evidence for ETH/BTC’s weakness came from Bitcoin’s rising dominance in the crypto market.

In detail, the Bitcoin Dominance Index, which measures the flagship cryptocurrency’s capitalization against the rest of the crypto market, surged from 42.39% on Oct. 1 to 46.64% on Oct. 12. On the other hand, Ether’s dominance dropped from 18.15% to 17.57% in the same period.

\\ Bitcoin dominance index daily chart. Source: TradingView

That shows that more capital rotated into the Bitcoin market than altcoins so far into October.

Related: Institutional crypto products eye record AUM as investors pile into Bitcoin

The rising Bitcoin dominance coincided with expectations that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission could approve four Bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETF) in a matter of weeks. The applicants are Global X Bitcoin Trust, Valkyrie XBTO Bitcoin Futures Fund, WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust, and Kryptoin Bitcoin ETF.

SEC Chair Gary Gensler hinted at an optimistic outcome for Bitcoin ETFs despite the SEC rejecting similar applications for eight years in a row. Gensler noted that this time, however, the Bitcoin ETF applicants filed under the Investment Company Act of 1940, which offers higher investor protection.

Earlier this week, two “light” Bitcoin ETFs started trading in the U.S., named Invesco Alerian Galaxy Crypto Economy ETF (SATO) and Invesco Alerian Galaxy Blockchain Users and Decentralized Commerce ETF (BLKC). However, the funds invest 80% of their assets in crypto-related companies, not Bitcoin itself.

\\ SATO ETF 15-minute price chart. Source: TradingView

The SEC also approved a third crypto equity ETF. Dubbed the Volt Crypto Industry Revolution and Tech ETF (BTCR), the fund will gain exposure “in entities that hold a majority of their net assets in bitcoin or derive a majority of their earnings from bitcoin mining, lending or transacting.”

Bitcoin to go “insane?”

James Seyffart, an ETF analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, said the news would be “very bullish” for Bitcoin. Similarly, independent market analyst Lark Davis also predicts “insane” market reactions should the SEC approve a Bitcoin ETF having exposure to actual BTC.

I don't think people are fully prepared for how insane the markets will go once we get a #bitcoin ETF approved!

— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) October 8, 2021 \n\n

So, it appears the speculation over Bitcoin ETF approvals raised traders’ appetite for the top cryptocurrency in recent days, with BTC outperforming its top rivals, including Ether.

Nonetheless, Ethereum boasts a strong decentralized application ecosystem and remains the key force behind the booming decentralized finance and nonfungible token sectors.

David Gokhshtein, founder of Gokhshtein Media and PAC Global, noted that Ethereum’s healthy network effect could send Ether to $10,000 by the end of this year. Meanwhile, as Cointelegraph covered, an ongoing supply crunch in the Ether market should remain a major talking point for bulls moving forward. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74145.caf0187c-3f18-4e3c-b512-c133d4c91ed2.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:9621,shares:mM,tags:[{id:fD,slug:fE,title:fF,url:fG},{id:mw,slug:hl,title:_,url:gi},{id:hq,slug:hr,title:gj,url:hs},{id:ez,slug:eA,title:eB,url:eC},{id:mN,slug:mO,title:mP,url:mQ},{id:"1212",slug:"sec",title:"SEC",url:"/tags/sec"},{id:"1266",slug:"etf",title:"ETF",url:"/tags/etf"},{id:aK,slug:aL,title:ao,url:aM},{id:mR,slug:mS,title:mT,url:mU},{id:"9324",slug:"market-update",title:mV,url:"/tags/market-update"},{id:"9362",slug:"tech-analysis",title:"Tech Analysis",url:"/tags/tech-analysis"},{id:fJ,slug:A,title:v,url:fK},{id:mF,slug:mG,title:mH,url:mI},{id:"9567",slug:"ethereum-price",title:"Ethereum Price",url:"/tags/ethereum-price"}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74145regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:cA,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"need-some-bitcoin-hopium-this-chart-calls-for-new-btc-price-all-time-high-by-november",url:mp,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/need-some-bitcoin-hopium-this-chart-calls-for-new-btc-price-all-time-high-by-november",title:hf,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:mq,datePublished:aS,dateHuman:"15 hours ago",humanDateTime:"2021-10-12 08:54",dateISOFull:"2021-10-12T07:54:16+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:D,month:u,day:N,hour:ey,minute:mM,second:hn,millisecond:f},categorySlug:A,categoryUrl:M,categoryName:v,authorName:fy,authorUrl:fz,authorAvatar:ga,previewText:"The latest bullish Bitcoin price forecast further cements the case for a breakout, but a retracement could conversely end up with a visit to $45,000.",twitterLeadText:"Bitcoin to $72,000 or $45,000? @filbfilb and @decentrader weigh in with fresh $BTC analysis.",badgeSlug:j,badgeName:gX,fullText:"

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to see new all-time highs this month and at least $72,000 in November if the latest price data is accurate.

In a tweet on Tuesday, Filbfilb, an analyst at trading platform Decentrader, described what he said was an achievable price target for this month and next.

BTC price to $72,000? “Stranger things have happened,” says trader

With “Uptober” delivering solid bullish results so far, analysts are keen to chart where the Bitcoin bull run might lead in Q4.

As Cointelegraph reported, some predictions have used historical price comparisons and even simple calculations to deliver near-term BTC/USD targets of up to $300,000.

For Filbfilb, a move back to previous all-time highs of $64,500 and beyond in the coming weeks remains “hopium,” but the overall bullish Bitcoin market might not need much inspiration to deliver it.

“A bit of good news coupled with the stubborn hodlers though and it’s possible.. stranger things have happened,” he commented.

Despite the upward trajectory, however, he added that now is not the time to take on risk, advising traders not to use extensive leverage for long or short positions.

An accompanying chart compared 2021 to 2017, the year after the previous block subsidy halving event. Accordingly, a rematch of all-time highs by the end of October seems possible, this matching existing forecasts.

\\ BTC/USD price comparison. Source: Filbfilb/Twitter

Bets rise on a $45,000 floor

On the topic of a potential retracement, meanwhile, Filbfilb mooted the idea of $48,000, amid a lack of broad selling interest.

Related: BTC price hits $57K five-month high — 5 things to watch in BTC this week

“My head says 48 but there don’t fundamentally really seem to be any sellers beyond what’s on the exchanges. idk, I’m 50/50,” he said in Twitter comments.

This echoes Decentrader’s own targets of around $45,000–$50,000 once resistance is hit closer to $60,000.

“Similar to previous events, we then saw a correction back to retest the $50-1k level, which we are again anticipating,” a market update warned late last week.

“It is worth noting that corrections back to significant levels like $50k in this instance often do not hold up on the first time of asking, so we will be observing price action around here as prices could fall back slow as $45k as we saw in February of this year.”

At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded at $57,400 as 24 hours of ranging behavior followed a clip to five-month highs.

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74132.fef14155-cb1c-4aab-9364-52b82bbe624d.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:11022,shares:111,tags:[{id:w,slug:cy,title:I,url:aJ},{id:ez,slug:eA,title:eB,url:eC},{id:aK,slug:aL,title:ao,url:aM},{id:"2954",slug:"predictions",title:"Predictions",url:"/tags/predictions"}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74132regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:aO,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"bitcoin-s-100k-price-target-returns-as-btc-price-breaks-out-of-bull-pennant",url:g_,absoluteUrl:me,title:gc,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:g$,datePublished:fw,dateHuman:fx,humanDateTime:"2021-10-11 16:57",dateISOFull:"2021-10-11T15:57:31+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:D,month:u,day:Q,hour:fh,minute:57,second:mW,millisecond:f},categorySlug:A,categoryUrl:M,categoryName:v,authorName:ff,authorUrl:fg,authorAvatar:hp,previewText:"The bullish analogy appears as Bitcoin reserves across all the crypto exchanges fall to their lowest in the previous 12 months, suggesting holding sentiment among traders.",twitterLeadText:"Bitcoin price poised for a run-up to $100,000 as BTC price breaks out.",badgeSlug:gg,badgeName:v,fullText:"

Bitcoin (BTC) looks poised to pursue a run-up towards $100,000 as its price breaks out of a classic bullish structure.

Dubbed as the Bull Pennant, the setup represents a price consolidation period with converging trendlines that form after a strong move higher. It ultimately prompts the price to break out in the direction of its previous trend to a level typically at length higher by as much as the size of the initial large move.

On Bitcoin weekly charts, the cryptocurrency appeared to have been trending inside a similar consolidation structure, with its price fluctuating inside a triangle-like structure following a strong move higher (Flagpole).

BTC/USD weekly price chart featuring Bull Pennant setup. Source: TradingView.com

Last week, Bitcoin broke above the structure's upper trendline as it rose by 13.5%, with rising trading volumes to boot. As a result, the cryptocurrency's breakout move indicated its potential to rise by as much as the size of its previous trend (nearly $50,000).

Measuring from the point of breakout (~$48,200), the Bull Pennant's upside target thereby comes out to be another $50,000 higher, i.e., almost $100,000.

Other predictions

The technical setup projected Bitcoin at $100,000 not longer after many analysts envisioned the cryptocurrency at the same, six-digital valuation.

A team of researchers at Standard Chartered, headed by its global head of emerging market currency research, Geoffrey Kendrick, predicted BTC to hit $100,000 by early next year. They cited Bitcoin's potential to become \"the dominant peer-to-peer payment method for the global unbanked\" behind their bullish prediction.

David Gokhshtein, the founder of Gokhshtein Media and PAC Global, also imagined Bitcoin above $100,000 before the end of 2021. The executive based his bullish outlook on the amount of available fiat liquidity in the market, which, according to him, has prompted leading Wall Street players to purchase Bitcoin.

\"Not everybody's going to come out publicly and tell you that they're buying bitcoin, but they are,\" Gokhshtein told Business Insider.

\"There's too much money in the market. Way too much money. Institutions did not come in here to play for five minutes.\"

His statements appeared after George Soros' investment firm revealed at a Bloomberg event that it owns Bitcoin, sending the cryptocurrency spiking. That was soon followed by JPMorgan Chase's latest report that showing institutional investors' preference for Bitcoin over gold as an inflation hedge.

In an earlier study published in May, the banking giant projected Bitcoin to reach $140,000 in the long term.

Holding sentiment on rise

On-chain indicators highlighted a rise in holding sentiment among Bitcoin traders.

Related: Tesla may have made more money holding Bitcoin than selling cars

In detail, the Bitcoin reserves held across all crypto exchanges recently dropped to their lowest levels in a year, as per data provided by blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The decline illustrated traders' intention to hold their Bitcoin tokens close than trading them for other fiat/digital assets.

BTC reserves across all exchanges. Source: TradingView.com

Therefore, declining Bitcoin balances on exchanges typically follow up with a rise in the BTC price.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n

\n\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74092.76388dc2-e225-4038-a422-473e358c75fa.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:29276,shares:152,tags:[{id:w,slug:cy,title:I,url:aJ},{id:fD,slug:fE,title:fF,url:fG},{id:hq,slug:hr,title:gj,url:hs},{id:ez,slug:eA,title:eB,url:eC},{id:mN,slug:mO,title:mP,url:mQ},{id:aK,slug:aL,title:ao,url:aM},{id:mR,slug:mS,title:mT,url:mU},{id:fJ,slug:A,title:v,url:fK}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74092regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:aN,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"btc-price-passes-57-4k-in-a-fresh-surge-towards-february-resistance",url:gY,absoluteUrl:md,title:gb,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:gZ,datePublished:fw,dateHuman:fx,humanDateTime:"2021-10-11 14:53",dateISOFull:"2021-10-11T13:53:49+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:D,month:u,day:Q,hour:gk,minute:ho,second:49,millisecond:f},categorySlug:A,categoryUrl:M,categoryName:v,authorName:fy,authorUrl:fz,authorAvatar:ga,previewText:"Bitcoin bulls buy up every dip as peak after peak falls to the widely anticipated Q4 bull run finale.",twitterLeadText:"Bitcoin has beaten five-month highs and is closing in on February's $58,000 resistance.",badgeSlug:j,badgeName:mV,fullText:"

Bitcoin (BTC) kept markets guessing into the Wall Street open on Oct. 11 after seeing rejection on hitting its highest since May.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC price teases $58,000 February high

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD tracking $57,000 after reaching $57,450 on Bitstamp — its best since May 10.

In so doing, Bitcoin effectively fully canceled out the impact of China’s mining debacle and subsequent redistribution of hash rate around the world.

If you're reading this, you survived the #BTC crash in May 2021$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 11, 2021 \n\n

Amid a celebratory mood among analysts, predictions broadly centered on a run to a six-figure peak initiating sooner rather than later.

“All data science models suggest that BTC will peak much higher than $100,000 in this cycle,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital added on the day.

Even at current prices, BTC/USD has only been higher 38 days in its lifetime, Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano noted.

Bitcoin supply crisis becomes mainstream

That could be assisted by a unique macro-environment further adding to Bitcoin’s allure as a finite-supply investment, Bloomberg said.

Related: BTC price hits $57K five-month high — 5 things to watch in BTC this week

In the latest of his frequent bullish Bitcoin tweets, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, highlighted upcoming turmoil over United States fiscal policy.

“Relative to rising US debt and tensions over a potential default, Bitcoin may be entering a unique phase for a 4Q price rise as markets gain trust in the coding that defines the crypto’s supply,” he tweeted.

“The debt-ceiling drama may work against managers that avoid allocations to Bitcoin”

\\ Bitcoin supply vs. U.S. debt-to-GDP chart. Source: Mike McGlone/Twitter

The concerns failed to worry the dollar at the start of the week, however, with the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) climbing once more above the 94 support.

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74081.9d423a9c-de31-40c8-9126-d361f048002d.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:13384,shares:mX,tags:[{id:w,slug:cy,title:I,url:aJ},{id:ez,slug:eA,title:eB,url:eC},{id:aK,slug:aL,title:ao,url:aM}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74081regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:cB,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"shiba-inu-rebounds-40-despite-major-selling-by-shib-whales",url:hg,absoluteUrl:mY,title:ge,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:hh,datePublished:fw,dateHuman:fx,humanDateTime:"2021-10-11 12:35",dateISOFull:"2021-10-11T11:35:45+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:D,month:u,day:Q,hour:Q,minute:hj,second:mZ,millisecond:f},categorySlug:A,categoryUrl:M,categoryName:v,authorName:ff,authorUrl:fg,authorAvatar:hp,previewText:"The sharp upside retracement surfaces as retail frenzy around Shiba Inu hints at testing May peak levels.",twitterLeadText:"Shiba Inu Bull Pennant breakout setup means SHIB price could rise to $0.00004713.",badgeSlug:j,badgeName:m_,fullText:"

Shiba Inu (SHIB) kickstarted its new weekly session in the green as it continued its bullish retracement move from last week’s low of $0.00002058.

SHIB’s price logged an intraday high of $0.00002907 on Oct. 11, netting over 40% returns from its ongoing rebound trend. In doing so, the Dogecoin-inspired meme cryptocurrency eyed an extended runup toward its technical resistance level near $0.00002978, as shown in the chart below.

\\ SHIB/USDT 4-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

Extended rally ahead?

The Shiba Inu chart also shows traders’ intention to accumulate SHIB tokens when its price tests the 20-4H exponential moving average (20-4H EMA; the green wave) as support.

For instance, the cryptocurrency crashed by over 40% on Oct. 7 as Shiba Inu’s addresses worth 1 million–10 million SHIB dumped over 31 billion tokens, the largest in six months, as per Santiment data. However, the price recovered as traders started accumulating SHIB tokens near the 20-4H EMA.

Additionally, Shiba Inu’s ongoing retracement took cues from a potential correlation between the 1million–10 million SHIB address dump and its price. Santiment noted that Shiba Inu’s price rebounds every time after SHIB millionaires dump their holdings, as shown in the chart below.

Shiba Inu supply distribution. Source: Santiment

That shows micro traders’ intention to absorb massive selloffs. 

Retail sentiment moons

The bullish retracement in the SHIB market coincided with a rising number of internet queries for the keyword “Shiba Inu,” as per Google Trends. 

Web data shows a rise in the Shiba Inu trend in the United States on a 12-month interest timeframe, signaling booming retail interest. At 92, the trend is closer to the peak popularity score of 100, last seen in the second week of May. It indicates that more internet users are looking for information on Shiba Inu. 

\\ Google searches for \"Shiba Inu.\" Source: Google Trends

Nevertheless, the internet queries for the keyword “how to buy Shiba Inu” came out to be only 18 in the same period. Nonetheless, compared to the previous week, the interest shot up by 260%.

Tale of two indicators

On a technical front, SHIB’s latest rebound move appears to have invalidated a bearish setup that Cointelegraph discussed in one of its previous coverages.

Related: Shiba Inu is now a top-20 cryptocurrency with SHIB price soaring 300% in 9 days

Specifically, SHIB’s price broke bullish out of an otherwise bearish descending triangle pattern as it closed above the structure’s upper trendline with a rise in trading volume. While the breakout still awaits confirmation, it has boosted the prospects of bullish continuation.

The reason for an extended upside is a makeshift bull pennant, which typically sends the price higher by as much as the height of the previous upside move. In other words, SHIB’s breakout above its bull pennant pattern could send its price to $0.00004713.

\\ SHIB/USDT 4-hour price chart featuring bull pennant setup. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, should the price slip back inside the pennant range, it would risk reactivating the descending triangle setup. In doing so, SHIB may eye a correction toward $0.00002195, followed by a negative breakout move toward $0.00001000.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n

\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74066.e4a7afb1-6782-4d79-beca-f0b4823d5ac7.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:m$,shares:233,tags:[{id:"42",slug:na,title:as,url:"/tags/dogecoin"},{id:fD,slug:fE,title:fF,url:fG},{id:gh,slug:fH,title:hk,url:fI},{id:hq,slug:hr,title:gj,url:hs},{id:aK,slug:aL,title:ao,url:aM},{id:"2551",slug:"market-capitalization",title:"Market Capitalization",url:"/tags/market-capitalization"},{id:"5956",slug:"coinmarketcap",title:"CoinMarketCap",url:"/tags/coinmarketcap"},{id:fJ,slug:A,title:v,url:fK},{id:"9504",slug:"altcoin-watch",title:m_,url:"/tags/altcoin-watch"}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74066regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:fe,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"top-5-cryptocurrencies-to-watch-this-week-btc-dot-uni-link-xmr",url:mr,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/top-5-cryptocurrencies-to-watch-this-week-btc-dot-uni-link-xmr",title:hi,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:ms,datePublished:"2021-10-10",dateHuman:"Oct 10, 2021",humanDateTime:"2021-10-10 19:00",dateISOFull:"2021-10-10T18:00:00+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:D,month:u,day:u,hour:fL,minute:f,second:f,millisecond:f},categorySlug:A,categoryUrl:M,categoryName:v,authorName:nb,authorUrl:nc,authorAvatar:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/f10b99b4bae7c37e4f1752f3b6b7228a.jpg",previewText:"Bitcoin could pick up momentum above $56,100 and that could attract buying in DOT, UNI, LINK, and XMR.",twitterLeadText:"Bitcoin has a good shot at $60K — and if that happens, DOT, UNI, LINK, and XMR prices are likely to continue their rebound.",badgeSlug:j,badgeName:nd,fullText:"

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to trade near the $55,000 level. The sharp rally in Bitcoin has pushed its market dominance from 40.70% on Sep. 12 to about 45% on Oct. 11. This shows that the strong recovery in cryptocurrencies has been led primarily by Bitcoin. 

This sharp run-up in Bitcoin has pushed the Fear and Greed indicator into the Greed zone. Although this indicator suggests that markets may have run up quickly in a short time, it does not necessarily signal a confirmed short-term top.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

History suggests that traders who sold their Bitcoin positions on this metric alone could have missed strong gains before the correction set in, as highlighted by Cointelegraph Marke analyst Marcel Pechman.

Could bulls extend the up-move and push the price closer to the all-time high in Bitcoin? If that happens, select altcoins may rally to the upside. Let’s study the charts of the top five cryptocurrencies that could remain strong in the short term.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin soared above the stiff overhead resistance at $52,920 on Oct. 6 and the bulls have held the price above the breakout level since then. This is a positive sign as it indicates that buyers may be holding on to their positions expecting higher levels in the short term.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the overbought zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

If buyers push the price above $56,100, the uptrend could resume and the BTC/USDT pair may rally to $60,000. Above this level, a retest of the all-time high at $64,854 is possible.

Contrary to this assumption, if bears pull the price below $52,920, the pair could drop to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($49,504). This is an important support for the bulls to defend because a break below it could signal a change in the short-term sentiment.

The pair could then drop to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($47,578) and next to $40,000.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are facing selling in the $55,750 to $56,100 zone but a positive sign is that buyers have not allowed the price to dip below the 20-EMA. This indicates that bulls anticipate a break above the overhead zone.

If that happens, the pair could resume its uptrend. The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-EMA. The RSI is forming a negative divergence, signaling that the momentum may be weakening.

A break and close below the 20-EMA could pull the price to the 50-SMA. A break below this support could start a deeper correction.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been gradually moving higher toward the overhead resistance at $38.77. The RSI has broken out of the downtrend line and the 20-day EMA ($32.15) has started to turn up, indicating an advantage to buyers.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bulls thrust the price above $38.77, it will invalidate the head and shoulders pattern. The failure of a bearish setup is a bullish sign as it may trap the aggressive bears who then try to cover their positions, resulting in a short-squeeze.

The DOT/USDT pair could then start its journey toward $49.78. Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below the moving averages, the pair could drop to $28.60.

A bounce off this support could keep the pair range-bound for a few days. The bears will have to pull the price below the neckline to signal their supremacy.

DOT/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, suggesting that buyers are in control. The pair could drop to the 20-EMA, which is likely to act as a strong support. If the price turns up from this support, the bulls will try to push the pair to $38.77.

This level may again act as a stiff resistance but if bulls do not give up much ground from it, the possibility of a break above it increases.

Conversely, if bears pull the price below the 20-EMA, the pair could drop to the 50-SMA. A break and close below this support could result in a decline to $31 and then $29.

UNI/USDT

Uniswap (UNI) has been holding above the 20-day EMA (24.55) for the past few days, which shows that bulls are trying to defend this support. However, the bears are in no mood to relent as they have not allowed the price to rise above the neckline.

UNI/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The buyers will have to push and close the price above the neckline to complete an inverse HS pattern. This bullish reversal setup has a pattern target at $36.98 but the rally may not be linear as bears will try to defend the level at $31.41.

The 20-day EMA is rising gradually and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting that bulls have a slight edge. This advantage will be lost if the price breaks and closes below the 20-day EMA.

In such a case, the UNI/USDT pair could drop to $22. This level may act as a support but if bears sink the price below it, the pair could extend the decline to $17.73.

\\ UNI/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the price has roughly been consolidating in a tight range between $24 and $26 for some time. Usually, such tight ranges result in the start of a directional move.

If buyers drive and sustain the price above $26, the possibility of a break above the neckline increases. That could start the march toward the next overhead resistance at $30 and then to $31.

On the other hand, if the price breaks below $24, the short-term trend may turn in favor of bears. The pair could then drop to $22.

Related: XRP price eyes $1.50 next after bouncing 30% in just 10 days

LINK/USDT

Chainlink (LINK) broke above the downtrend line on Oct. 1, but the bulls have not been able to capitalize on this move. The altcoin has been stuck in a tight range between $25.20 and $26.19 for the past few days.

LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Both moving averages are flat and the RSI has been trading just above the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. This equilibrium will tilt in favor of buyers if the price breaks and closes above $28.19.

The LINK/USDT pair could then rally to $32.11 and later challenge the stiff overhead resistance at $35.33.

Alternatively, a break and close below $25.20 could signal that supply exceeds demand. The pair could then drop to the $22 to $20.82 support zone.

LINK/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The price turned down from the overhead resistance and bears have pulled the price below the moving averages. If sellers sustain the lower levels, the pair could drop to the support at $25.20. A break below this level could signal that bears are back in command.

Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level and rises back above the moving averages, it will suggest that traders are buying on dips. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above $28.19 to signal that they are back in the driver’s seat. Thereafter, the pair could rally to $32.11.

XMR/USDT

Monero (XMR) rose above the 50-day SMA ($271) on Oct. 5 and reached the downtrend line on Oct. 6. The bears are aggressively defending the downtrend line for the past few days but a minor positive is that bulls have not allowed the price to dip back below the 50-day SMA.

XMR/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($263) is sloping up gradually and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating a minor advantage to buyers. A break and close above the psychological mark at $300 could open the doors for an up-move to $325 and then to $339.70.

On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that short-term traders may have dumped their positions. That could pull the price down to $250 and later to $225.

XMR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls have pushed the price above the downtrend line repeatedly but the bears have not allowed the pair to sustain above it. The 20-EMA has flattened out and the RSI is close to the center, suggesting a balance between supply and demand.

If the price breaks below the 50-SMA, the short-term bulls may rush to the exit. That could pull the price down to $260 and next to $250.

Conversely, if bulls push the price above $286.8, the pair could rise to $296.80. The bullish momentum may pick up if bulls thrust the price above this resistance.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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b",coinTradeVol:eq,coinTradeVolFormatted:er,supply:es,supplyFormatted:et},{id:cp,name:cq,label:cr,url:cs,value:l$,valueAltDesktop:l$,valueAltMobile:l$,changePercentage:"+1.96%",changeForWeek:6.41,changeForWeekFormatted:"+6.41%",changeForMonth:-8.67,changeForMonthFormatted:"-8.67%",isUp:b,isDown:a,isVisibleOnDesktop:a,isVisibleOnMobile:a,mktcap:17277120403.308125,mktcapFormatted:"17.28 b",open:17.49,openFormatted:"17.49",high:21.81,highFormatted:"21.81",low:15.27,lowFormatted:"15.27",volume24hour:16695575.659338053,volume24hourFormatted:"16.70 m",coinTradeVol:eu,coinTradeVolFormatted:ev,supply:ew,supplyFormatted:ex}]},currencies:[{id:pH,name:k,sign:pI,value:gD},{id:pJ,name:l,sign:pK,value:gH},{id:pL,name:m,sign:pM,value:gI},{id:pN,name:n,sign:gC,value:gL},{id:pO,name:o,sign:pP,value:gM},{id:pQ,name:p,sign:pR,value:gO},{id:pS,name:q,sign:pT,value:gQ},{id:pU,name:pV,sign:pW,value:gS},{id:pX,name:z,sign:gC,value:gU}],graphs:{}},types:{},user:{isAuthed:a,isAuthedBySocials:a,token:h,id:h,firstName:c,lastName:c,userName:c,avatar:c,email:c,description:c,userGaId:c,ipAddress:"51.15.130.90",analyticsData:[],sessionId:c},vendors:{isVendorsModalShown:a,info:{},localI18n:{}},viewport:{isWindowActive:b,viewportWidth:f,viewportHeight:f,scrollTop:f,scrollIsLocked:a,breakpoint:"XS",isOverlayVisible:a,userDeviceType:{apple:{phone:a,ipod:a,tablet:a,device:a},amazon:{phone:a,tablet:a,device:a},android:{phone:a,tablet:a,device:a},windows:{phone:a,tablet:a,device:a},other:{blackberry:a,blackberry10:a,opera:a,firefox:a,chrome:a,safari:a,device:a},any:a,phone:a,tablet:a},bottomZoneHeight:f}},serverRendered:b,routePath:gV}}(false,true,"",void 0,2,0,"_self",null,1,"default","USD","EUR","GBP","JPY","RUR","KRW","TRY","Language",3,4,10,"Market Analysis","4","en","es","CNY","market-analysis","1","2",2021,"27","tr","EOS","NEO","Bitcoin","23","promo_button","18.87 m","/category/market-analysis",12,"https://hitbtc.com/?ref_id=5cba0be404aa3","changelly-button",11,"7","adbutler","xxs","xs","sm","md","lg",50,5,"Ethereum","https://changelly.com?utm_source=cointelegraphutm_medium=referralutm_campaign=changellyctengbuttonref_id=le9ssi8dgmskmqu0","hitbtc-button","12","it","de","17","22","bybit2-button","bbt","https://www.bybit.com/bit-launch-event?medium=paid_bannersource=cointelegraphchannel=mkt_campaign=bitcontent=en_button","8","9","13","1.00","article","Markets","cointelegraph.com","es.cointelegraph.com",47,"Dogecoin","Monero","https://cointelegraph.us3.list-manage.com/subscribe/post-json?u=2c088712615955cd2f82aa968id=7376af3992","https://cointelegraph.us3.list-manage.com/subscribe/post-json?u=2c088712615955cd2f82aa968id=aad9f6b505","21",6,"26",51,48,"/bitcoin-cash-price-index","/ltc-price-index","/xrp-price-index","/xmr-price-index","_blank",79,138,"11","/tags/bitcoin","2014","markets","/tags/markets","74081","74092","en.LanguageType.1","en.LanguageType.2","tr.cointelegraph.com","2021-10-12","Note that all trading strategies are to be used at your own risk. Before trading, we recommend to make sure that you have a clear understanding of cryptocurrencies and how they are traded.","BTC","/bitcoin-price","ETH","/ethereum-price","3","LTC","Litecoin","XRP","Ripple","6","BCH","Bitcoin Cash","XMR","DASH","Dash","/dash-price-index","/eos-price-index","ZEC","Zcash","/zec-price-index","ADA","Cardano","/ada-price-index","/neo-price-index","14","TRX","TRON","/tron-price-index","15","BNB","Binance Coin","/binance-coin-price-index","16","XLM","Stellar","/stellar-price-index","USDT","Tether","/tether-price-index","18","MIOTA","IOTA","/iota-price-index","19","ONT","Ontology","/ontology-price-index","20","MKR","Maker","/maker-price-index","BSV","Bitcoin SV","/bsv-price-index","DOGE","/doge-price-index","ETC","Ethereum Classic","/etc-price-index","24","XTZ","Tezos","/xtz-price-index","XEM","NEM","/nem-price-index","USDC","USD Coin","/usdc-price-index","28","CRO","Crypto.com Coin","/crypto-com-price-index","29","ATOM","Cosmos","/cosmos-price-index","30","LEO","UNUS SED LEO","/leo-price-index","3.64 b","2.24 m","32.97 b","3.40 b",8,"bitcoin","en.LanguageType.27","74132","74066","Changelly",95,732531.65,"732.53 k",18842012,"18.84 m",5262122.25,"5.26 m",117901916.1865,"117.90 m",17622230.97,"17.62 m",84000000,"84.00 m",3635278727.01,99990215169,"99.99 b",2240300.53,18870693.75,787242.19,"787.24 k",18010028.67208862,"18.01 m",1552798.7,"1.55 m",10376830.92397009,"10.38 m",276120504.29,"276.12 m",1036520027.58,"1.04 b",1561552.55,"1.56 m",12851250,"12.85 m",1612225870.33,"1.61 b",33250650235.236,"33.25 b",6079504.21,"6.08 m",100000000,"100.00 m",13474355800.36,"13.47 b",100850743811.662,"100.85 b",7016937.11,"7.02 m",168137036,"168.14 m",1856805557.54,"1.86 b",50001802727.348,"50.00 b",73833147345.42,"73.83 b",71385677464.96931,"71.39 b",120929373.35,"120.93 m",2779530283,"2.78 b",179361877.81,"179.36 m",1000000000,"1.00 b",53239.91,"53.24 k",991328.38195493,"991.33 k",3348250.21,"3.35 m",18867670.39423905,8297157345.95,"8.30 b",131665029433.54353,"131.67 b",18805509.56,"18.81 m",210700000,"210.70 m",87047112.52,"87.05 m",892096976.091074,"892.10 m",460865032.2,"460.87 m",8999999999,"9.00 b",3396255203.52,32966981766.93126,317044387.76,"317.04 m",30263013692,"30.26 b",23674371.23,"23.67 m",280603062.639631,"280.60 m",921844.21,"921.84 k",985239504,"985.24 m",7,"695","bitcoin-price","Bitcoin Price","/tags/bitcoin-price","74158",9,"br","cointelegraph.com.br","pt-BR","side","youtube","Y2hhbmdlbGx5LWJ1dHRvbg==","0.96","0.87","0.74","74145","en.LanguageType.23","Large devices"," 1200px","Medium devices"," 992px","Small tablets"," 768px","Smartphones"," 480px","Extra small devices","

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