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Bitcoin all-time highs ‘just a matter of time’ after a BTC ETF approval looks certain

by Donna Ryder

Bitcoin’s price spiked above $61,800 as the promise of a BTC ETF approval reignited the discussion on whether the top-ranked cryptocurrency will hit $100,000 by the end of the year.

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Bitcoin all-time highs ‘just a matter of time’ after a BTC ETF approval looks certain

Optimism is bordering euphoria in the cryptocurrency market after a trove of documents pointed toward the eventual approval of Valkyrie’s Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund, or ETF, application by the United States Securities Exchange Commission before the end of the month. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that price action for BTC spiked in the early trading hours on Friday, with bulls managing to rally to an intraday high at $61,880, marking the first time BTC has surpassed $60,000 since April.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s what traders and analysts are saying about what comes next for Bitcoin now that its price is back above $60,000 and the long-awaited Bitcoin ETF looks ready to become a reality.

On the precipice of a massive breakout

According to pseudonymous cryptocurrency analyst and Twitter user Rekt Capital, Bitcoin’s move on Oct. 15 ha it trading just below a major resistance level that is the last barrier standing in its way from exploding into uncharted territory.

From this perspective, if BTC can manage to post a weekly close above this level, there is “exponential upside” potential as price discovery will not be hampered by previously established resistance zones while bulls will attempt to fulfill the calls for a $100,000 BTC price.

Analysts say crypto markets are maturing

Insight into the long-term trajectory of the cryptocurrency ecosystem was provided by Konstantin Shugla, CEO and co-founder of Finery Markets, who indicated that “rypto markets are going the same maturity route as other traditional asset classes.”

According to Shugla, the growth in the sector is beginning to attract “a new level of mass institutional adoption that no firm can ignore anymore,” and the approval of an ETF will likely result in more institutional and retail inflows “from investors that were previously concerned with infrastructure/regulation risks.”

Shugla said:

“That will cause more volume and arbitrage opportunities for underlying instruments. I expect both historic records in terms of pricing and volumes can be hit in October and November.”

Related: Bitcoin gets green light for price discovery with ‘almost no supply’ on exchanges above $59K

New all-time highs are coming in “just a matter of time”

A more technically grounded perspective of the recent price action was provided by crypto trader and pseudonymous Twitter user Pentoshi, who posted the following chart outlining major support and resistance zones.

BTC/USD 3-day chart. Source: Twitter

According to Pentoshi, Bitcoin has now “taken out the macro lower high from when it topped” and started to form lower lows and lower highs, and now looks to form “a new trend of higher highs and higher lows.”

Pentoshi said:

“It’s only a matter of time before all-time highs with this structure.”

The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization now stands at $2.443 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 46.4%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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From this perspective, if BTC can manage to post a weekly close above this level, there is “exponential upside” potential as price discovery will not be hampered by previously established resistance zones while bulls will attempt to fulfill the calls for a $100,000 BTC price.

Analysts say crypto markets are maturing

Insight into the long-term trajectory of the cryptocurrency ecosystem was provided by Konstantin Shugla, CEO and co-founder of Finery Markets, who indicated that “rypto markets are going the same maturity route as other traditional asset classes.”

According to Shugla, the growth in the sector is beginning to attract “a new level of mass institutional adoption that no firm can ignore anymore,” and the approval of an ETF will likely result in more institutional and retail inflows “from investors that were previously concerned with infrastructure/regulation risks.”

Shugla said:

“That will cause more volume and arbitrage opportunities for underlying instruments. I expect both historic records in terms of pricing and volumes can be hit in October and November.”

Related: Bitcoin gets green light for price discovery with ‘almost no supply’ on exchanges above $59K

New all-time highs are coming in “just a matter of time”

A more technically grounded perspective of the recent price action was provided by crypto trader and pseudonymous Twitter user Pentoshi, who posted the following chart outlining major support and resistance zones.

BTC/USD 3-day chart. Source: Twitter

According to Pentoshi, Bitcoin has now “taken out the macro lower high from when it topped” and started to form lower lows and lower highs, and now looks to form “a new trend of higher highs and higher lows.”

Pentoshi said:

“It’s only a matter of time before all-time highs with this structure.”

The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization now stands at $2.443 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 46.4%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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And in fact, there's some evidence they should. This quant algorithm demonstrates stronger returns over two days than within a few hours.",badgeSlug:mx,badgeName:y,fullText:"

It might seem that the volatility of digital assets’ prices and the lightning speed with which crypto markets move would mean that those who act fastest secure the heftiest rewards.

And in certain cases this holds true – for example, when an announcement of a token’s listing on Coinbase or Binance first goes public, and the asset’s price line becomes all but vertical.

But in many cases, the tortoise beats the hare.

This principle is clearly at work when it comes to traders using quant-style tools to enhance their decision-making. One example is the VORTECS™ Score, an algorithmic comparison between historic and present patterns of market and social activity around a coin.

While the VORTECS™ algorithm is trained to detect historically bullish conditions around crypto assets, high scores are rarely followed by price surges immediately. In fact, the highest returns consistently arrive over the next few days after peak scores show up. What does it reveal about the nature of the crypto market?

The early bird gets the worm (but waits to eat it)

Exclusively available to the subscribers of Cointelegraph Markets Pro, the VORTECS™ Score is an artificial intelligence-powered indicator that looks for historic similarities across a multi-dimensional set of variables. These include changes in the price of a crypto asset, trading volume, social sentiment, and tweet volume, among others.

The higher the VORTECS™ Score, the more confident the model is that the observed combination of the key metrics around the token resembles past conditions that foreshadowed significant price hikes. Scores above 80 are considered confidently bullish, while a rarer sight of a 90+ Score suggests that the asset’s outlook is tremendously favorable, judging by its historic record of price action.

The timing, however, is intentionally fuzzy as the model is designed to detect conditions that had previously preceded rallies by 12 to 72 hours. In fact, although the algorithm is designed to flag bullish conditions as early as possible, it consistently delivers best results to crypto traders within days, rather than hours.

Historical data show that, on average, assets that score high on the VORTECS™ Score deliver consistent if small returns as soon as six hours after reaching the Scores of 80, 85, and 90.

Thus, crypto investors who rely on Markets Pro data to refine their trading strategies are often tempted to lock in profits early. The same data, however, suggest that it often makes sense to hold steady rather than grab the initial gains.

HODL, if only for a day or two?

The table below presents average returns after a crypto asset cleared a score of 80, 85, or 90 over a week. Each asset could only yield one observation per day, i.e. if a coin went from 79 to 81, then back to 79 and then to 80 once again in a few hours, only its first entry to 80+ would count.

As visible in the table, the more time passes after assets clear the threshold of 80, 85, or 90 VORTECS™ Score, the more likely they are to deliver larger returns. While these stats only reflect price movement from a single week, the pattern is actually observed very consistently throughout Markets Pro history dating back to early 2021.

In fact, 48 hours is not the limit. When it comes to ultra-high scores above 90, some Markets Pro subscribers report generating consistently large gains from holding such coins for a full week, or 168 hours.

These observations suggest that the crypto market could be not as chaotic and whimsical as many believe. Although many moves are clearly driven by waves of FUD and hype, the wider marketplace of digital assets exhibits identifiable regularities and recurring patterns of trading and social activities that can take days and weeks to build up before they move asset prices.

Cointelegraph Markets Pro’s VORTECS™ Score is simply one way to identify the conditions that lead to these moves — as early as possible. It’s up to the individual trader to decide when to take the profits.

Cointelegraph Markets Pro is available exclusively to members on a monthly basis at $99 per month, or annually with two free months included. It carries a 14-day money-back policy, to ensure that it fits the crypto trading and investing research needs of subscribers, and members can cancel anytime.

Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions.

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Bitcoin (BTC) saw some rare calm on Oct. 16 as the market continued to digest the approval of the United States' first exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Lack of faith over non-futures ETF approvals

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $61,500 on Saturday, still up by 4% in 24 hours. 

The pair had hit $62,940 hours after the Wall Street open on Friday as news hit that regulators had green-lit two ETF applications after years of failed applications.

These ETFs will have CME Bitcoin futures as the underlying asset, rather than Bitcoin itself, with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) set to begin deciding the fate of \"physical\" ETFs next month.

Futures-based ETFs have had a mixed reception, with opinions varying considerably on their market impact and overall effect on Bitcoin price action.

\"We are not sure if these futures-based ETFs will be able to draw enough new money to trigger an exponential move higher like the one we saw in Q4 2020,\" crypto trading firm QCP Capital stated in its latest market update.

\"We do expect inflow from investors switching out of Gold ETFs into BTC. However, with BTC above 60k, the market capitalisation is above $1.1 trillion. It’s going to take a lot to move the needle.\"

QCP pointed out that the nature of futures ETFs meant that the products would likely appeal more to retail rather than institutional investors, with the lion's share of potential capital inflow into Bitcoin thus reserved for physical products.

These, however, may be a long time coming, as investors pile into existing Canadian and European physical Bitcoin ETFs instead of waiting for a potential change of play from the SEC and its new Chair, Gary Gensler.

\"We suspect that after SEC Chair Gensler indirectly ruled out a physical BTC ETF in the US for the foreseeable future, investors able to access these overseas markets have decided to participate there rather than investing in the upcoming futures ETFs in the US,\" QCP added.

Bitcoin futures open interest chart. Source: Bybt

Bulls out in force despite \"priced in\" ETF

As Cointelegraph reported, the outlook for the rest of 2021 nonetheless remains rosy in the eyes of analysts, with Bitcoin tipped to reach anywhere up to $300,000.

Related: Bitcoin gets green light for price discovery with ‘almost no supply’ on exchanges above $59K

A subsequent bearish phase, even on a macro scale, will likely have a floor of no less than $47,000, data suggests.

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 16, 2021 \n\n

Meanwhile, institutional trading firm Bakkt is set to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange next week.

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Traders and the market are showing extreme optimism on Oct. 15 after rumors and an assortment of documents suggest that the path toward a Bitcoin ETF approval has fewer obstacles lying ahead.

Following the positive news, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to nearly $63,000 for the first time since April and multiple altcoins saw their prices book triple-digit gains.

Top 7 coins with the highest 24-hour price change. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the biggest gainers over the past 24-hours were NuCypher (NU), Keep Network (KEEP) and Orchid (OXT).

NuCypher partners with Keep Network

NuCyper is a protocol focused on creating decentralized encryption, access control and key management system services for public blockchains by offering end-to-end encrypted data sharing and decentralized storage solutions.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after hitting a low of $0.283 in the early trading hours on Oct. 15, the price of new catapulted 535% to an intraday high at $1.80 as its 24-hour trading volume skyrocketed by 19,440% to $2.152 billion.

NU/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The surge in price and trading volume for NU come as the project helped facilitate the launch of tBTC v2 on the Keep Network with is designed to “extend the censorship-resistant properties of Bitcoin onto every network that can interoperate with Ethereum (ETH).

Censorship-resistance comes to the Ethereum network

Keep Network is a protocol designed to offer privacy-focused infrastructure on public blockchains through the creation of an incentivized network for storing and encrypting private data.

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for KEEP on Oct. 12, prior to the recent price rise.

The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historical and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. KEEP price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for KEEP began to pick up on Oct. 12 and climbed to a high of 75 and the price increased 585% over the next day.

The spike in momentum for KEEP came along with the spike in the price of NU as the two projects collaborated to release tBTC v2 on the Keep Network.

Related: BREAKING: Nasdaq listing hints that the SEC may soon approve ETF application from Valkyrie

Blockchain-based VPN service boosts Orchid price

Orchid is a cryptocurrency-powered virtual private network (VPN) that describes itself as “the world’s first incentivized, peer-to-peer privacy network.

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for OXT on Oct. 12, prior to the recent price rise.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. OXT price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for OXT climbed into the green zone on Oct. 12 and reached a high of 75 on Oct. 14, around 15 hours before its price spiked 82% over the next day.

A scroll through the project’s Twitter feed points to an increased focus on privacy concerns as the impetus behind Friday’s price surge, which lines up with the main goals of both Nu and KEEP suggesting that the sector of privacy-related projects could be starting to attract more attention.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.482 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 46.6%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74381.d1aa7aa2-7bf6-44f1-82dd-7042a27cf202.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:9294,shares:mD,tags:[{id:D,slug:eA,title:I,url:cw},{id:fJ,slug:fK,title:fL,url:fM},{id:fQ,slug:fj,title:gq,url:fk},{id:"553",slug:mE,title:ab,url:hL},{id:eB,slug:eC,title:eD,url:eE},{id:"873",slug:"privacy",title:"Privacy",url:"/tags/privacy"},{id:eF,slug:eG,title:cx,url:eH},{id:"3917",slug:"censorship",title:"Censorship",url:"/tags/censorship"},{id:gl,slug:gm,title:eN,url:gn},{id:my,slug:mz,title:gr,url:mA}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74381regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:fO,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"traders-celebrate-bitcoin-s-impending-etf-but-options-markets-are-less-certain",url:mg,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/traders-celebrate-bitcoin-s-impending-etf-but-options-markets-are-less-certain",title:hA,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:mi,datePublished:aB,dateHuman:aC,humanDateTime:"2021-10-15 21:38",dateISOFull:"2021-10-15T20:38:42+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:C,month:u,day:G,hour:gu,minute:38,second:42,millisecond:f},categorySlug:H,categoryUrl:L,categoryName:y,authorName:"Marcel Pechman",authorUrl:"/authors/marcel-pechman",authorAvatar:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/d9a60dad74ee00672dd6fb80d9d5ea76.jpg",previewText:mh,twitterLeadText:"Bitcoin option markets imply a 25% chance of Bitcoin trading above $70,000 on Oct. 29, but @noshitcoins shows that this reading is relatively conservative.",badgeSlug:mx,badgeName:y,fullText:"

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, is expected to rule on Oct. 18 whether to approve an application from asset manager ProShare Capital Management for a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). 

As previously reported by Cointelegraph, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler recently suggested that the regulator is more inclined to approve indirect-exposure Bitcoin futures ETFs under the Investment Company Act of 1940.

On Oct.15, the Nasdaq Stock Market certified the registration of Valkyrie's Bitcoin Strategy ETF shares for listing. The deadline for the SEC to officially approve Valkyrie's ETF application is Oct. 25, but this could be extended to Dec. 8.

$70,000 call options see their implied probability hit 25%

Two weeks ago, it would have been a daunting task to find an investor willing to bet on a $70,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price for Oct. 29. A 62% upside was needed from the $43,100 price on Sep. 30, and this seemed far-fetched at that time. Therefore, the Oct. $70,000 BTC call (buy) options traded on Sep. 30 at Deribit for $194, or 0.0045 BTC.

Bitcoin Oct. 29 call options price in BTC. Source: Deribit

As shown above, the same option is currently trading at $1,570, or 0.0262 BTC, as Bitcoin rallied by 39% month-to-date to $60,000. So, even though this is still a long way to go for the $70,000 call option, the odds have significantly increased.

Even with the BTC price increase, the implied options probability (delta) currently sits at 25%, which might sound bearish at first sight.

Traders should not take options probabilities literally

Options pricing is heavily dependent on how distant the expiry date is. Considering Bitcoin's 4% daily volatility, anything can happen ahead of the Oct. 29 options expiry. Therefore, traders should not fixate too much on options implied probability (delta).

To better assess the odds of Bitcoin's ETF approval by the end of the month, one should use the $50,000 delta as the 'base' scenario. Traders should assume that a 17% price drop would definitively signal that the decision by the U.S. SEC was either delayed or rejected.

Considering that the $50,000 call option is trading at an 84% delta, or implied probability, investors are pricing a 16% odds for a doomsday scenario.

Meanwhile, the $70,000 call option for Oct. 29 at 8:00 am UTC, which indicates that the ETF has been approved, presents a 25% implied probability. Options markets undoubtedly show higher odds for a positive move, but far from a certainty.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74379.ce6297e1-fdb0-435a-97f4-cf72162411b3.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:6384,shares:77,tags:[{id:D,slug:eA,title:I,url:cw},{id:eB,slug:eC,title:eD,url:eE},{id:hq,slug:hr,title:hs,url:ht},{id:eF,slug:eG,title:cx,url:eH},{id:"2610",slug:"derivatives",title:"Derivatives",url:"/tags/derivatives"},{id:"9501",slug:"bitcoin-options",title:"Bitcoin Options",url:"/tags/bitcoin-options"}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74379regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:fi,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"better-call-sol-month-long-consolidation-puts-solana-price-en-route-to-275",url:mj,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/better-call-sol-month-long-consolidation-puts-solana-price-en-route-to-275",title:hB,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:mk,datePublished:aB,dateHuman:aC,humanDateTime:"2021-10-15 16:50",dateISOFull:"2021-10-15T15:50:04+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:C,month:u,day:G,hour:G,minute:Q,second:t,millisecond:f},categorySlug:H,categoryUrl:L,categoryName:y,authorName:gv,authorUrl:gw,authorAvatar:mF,previewText:"SOL has been forming a bull pennant following its 14,200% year-to-date price rally.",twitterLeadText:"Solana eyes bull run with a convincing bull pennant setup for SOL price. ",badgeSlug:j,badgeName:fR,fullText:"

Solana (SOL) price technicals suggest SOL can hit $275 in the coming sessions.

The upside outlook for the world's sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization comes as it consolidates inside a range that appears like a bull pennant.

In detail, Bull Pennants are bullish continuation indicators that form as the price consolidates inside a symmetrical triangle-like structure following a strong move upside.

The consolidation trend accompanies declining volumes, reflecting on the trend's underlying weakness.

And, as the price approached the apex — the point where the pennant's trendlines converge, it tends to undergo a breakout to the upside, with the bull target at length equal to the height of the previous uptrend, i.e., the flagpole.

SOL/USDT daily price chart featuring bull pennant setup. Source: TradingView

Solana's flagpole height is roughly $125. That said, a breakout move at the pennant's apex (at around $150) puts SOL en route to $275.

SOL/BTC pair also gains despite Bitcoin at $60K 

Solana's prospects of hitting $275 come amid an overall price boom across the crypto market.

However, SOL price also rallied by 8% against Bitcoin (BTC) in the past two days in part due to its listing on South Korea's top crypto exchange Upbit.

Related: Solana chart 'bull flag' eyes $250 despite SOL price down 40% since last week

Overall, SOL has been one of the best performing altcoins in 2021, with its year-to-date profits at 8,500%. SOL traded at a record high of $216 in early September.

Institutional inflows boost SOL price

Despite the limelight currently on Bitcoin, Solana's price likely also received a boost from institutional capital via dedicated investment funds, according to a report from CoinShares published earlier this week.

\"Digital asset investment products saw inflows 500 totaling US$226 million, bringing the 8 week run of inflows to US$638 million,\" CoinShares noted, adding:

\"It was a mixed picture in other altcoins with recent favorites Solana (US$12.5 million) and Cardano (US$3 million) continuing to see inflows, suggesting the focus hasn’t entirely switched to Bitcoin. Institutional inflows into crypto funds by asset. Source: CoinShares, Bloomberg

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n

\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74357.e8303064-cd11-44b2-9e8b-b82e65c70ec9.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:11379,shares:102,tags:[{id:fQ,slug:fj,title:gq,url:fk},{id:"562",slug:"analysis",title:mG,url:"/tags/analysis"},{id:eB,slug:eC,title:eD,url:eE},{id:"906",slug:"bitcoin-analysis",title:"Bitcoin Analysis",url:"/tags/bitcoin-analysis"},{id:eF,slug:eG,title:cx,url:eH},{id:"5249",slug:"btc-markets",title:"BTC Markets",url:"/tags/btc-markets"},{id:gl,slug:gm,title:eN,url:gn},{id:mH,slug:mI,title:mJ,url:mK},{id:mL,slug:H,title:y,url:mM},{id:hG,slug:hH,title:fR,url:hI},{id:"9524",slug:"solana",title:"Solana",url:"/tags/solana"}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74357regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:eJ,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"bitcoin-gets-green-light-for-price-discovery-with-almost-no-supply-on-exchanges-above-59k",url:ml,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-gets-green-light-for-price-discovery-with-almost-no-supply-on-exchanges-above-59k",title:hC,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:mm,datePublished:aB,dateHuman:aC,humanDateTime:"2021-10-15 14:25",dateISOFull:"2021-10-15T13:25:00+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:C,month:u,day:G,hour:gx,minute:gy,second:f,millisecond:f},categorySlug:H,categoryUrl:L,categoryName:y,authorName:gs,authorUrl:gt,authorAvatar:hJ,previewText:"Resistance is thinner than ever, while data leaves the market guessing about what will happen when Bitcoin revisits $64,500 all-time highs.",twitterLeadText:"There's basically nothing standing in the way of fresh price discovery for Bitcoin, says @Whalemap.",badgeSlug:j,badgeName:mN,fullText:"

Bitcoin (BTC) is now free to surge not only to existing all-time highs but beyond, analysts have said.

Analyzing orderbook data on Oct. 15, monitoring resource Whalemap revealed that Bitcoin had already beaten all major resistance levels.

Bitcoin is already moving in thin air 

With $60,000 hitting for the first time since April, the odds are on for new all-time highs — and the timeframe for these keeps getting smaller.

Now, a look at exchange conditions shows just how easily BTC/USD should jump into uncharted territory beyond $64,500.

“Price discovery shall commence very soon,” Whalemap commented on a chart showing BTC supply levels by price.

“Almost no supply at prices above 59k.” \\ Bitcoin supply vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Whalemap/Twitter

Short squeeze or resistance slap at $64,000?

The only hurdle left is a sell-wall at the current highs, something which has been countered by bullish data about the origins of the current bull run phase.

Related: Think $60K is the top? This Bitcoin fractal suggests it’s the next bear market bottom

According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s recent price surge is not the result of speculators or shorts being “squeezed” out — but large-volume buyers on derivatives platforms.

This firmly differentiates Q4 from earlier phases, notably that which produced the all-time highs from the start of 2021 onward.

As such, a classic “short squeeze” scenario, where bears are wiped out in a cascading ascending price structure, has yet to even happen.

“Massive BTC buying market orders in derivative exchanges are not from short liquidations,” Ki wrote in a blog post on Friday.

“This indicates: 1/ There are no big short positions liquidated so far 2/ Whales punted long positions since the dip.” Bitcoin derivative exchange short liquidations ratio chart. Source: CryptoQuant \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74345.fe4e9ecf-dded-412e-9fee-04a786412691.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:20233,shares:60,tags:[{id:D,slug:eA,title:I,url:cw},{id:eB,slug:eC,title:eD,url:eE},{id:eF,slug:eG,title:cx,url:eH}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74345regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:eP,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"polygon-can-hit-3-50-in-q4-as-matic-s-20-weekly-rally-triggers-bull-flag-setup",url:mn,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/polygon-can-hit-3-50-in-q4-as-matic-s-20-weekly-rally-triggers-bull-flag-setup",title:hD,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:mo,datePublished:aB,dateHuman:aC,humanDateTime:"2021-10-15 12:36",dateISOFull:"2021-10-15T11:36:34+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:C,month:u,day:G,hour:ac,minute:36,second:34,millisecond:f},categorySlug:H,categoryUrl:L,categoryName:y,authorName:gv,authorUrl:gw,authorAvatar:mF,previewText:"MATIC retested the bull flag’s upper trendline as resistance Friday after its price rose by up to 30%.",twitterLeadText:"Polygon price soars by over 30% on Friday as MATIC gets listed on South Korea's Upbit. ",badgeSlug:j,badgeName:fR,fullText:"

Polygon (MATIC) has the potential to reach $3.50 by the end of this year as it charts a pattern that’s starting to resemble a bull flag.

In detail, bull flags are bullish continuation patterns that emerge when the price consolidates following a strong move higher. In doing so, the price tends to trend lower while leaving behind a sequence of higher lows and lower lows.

A breakout occurs when the price closes above the flag’s upper trendline (or resistance). In other words, the price can rise by as much as the height of the previous uptrend, also known as a flagpole.

It appears MATIC has been painting a similar pattern even since it established a record high of $2.89 on May 17, following a $2-long upside run (the flagpole).

\\ MATIC/USD weekly price chart featuring bull flag setup. Source: TradingView

As a result, should MATIC’s price break above the flag’s resistance decisively, it will shift its upside target to about $2 above the breakout level. That would roughly put the Polygon token en route to $3.50.

The pullback angle

The bullish setup appeared as MATIC surged by around 30% on Friday to reach a one-month high near $1.65.

Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency experienced a slight correction near the said peak level, dropping by around 4% on profit-taking sentiment among daytraders. Moreover, since the correction occurred right around the bull flag resistance, it raised the possibility of extended selloffs ahead.

Should a pullback happen, it will risk dropping MATIC to its first line of weekly support toward its 20-week exponential moving average (20-week EMA; the green wave) around $1.231. Meanwhile, further weakness could shift the downside target to the 50-week EMA (the velvet wave) around $0.868.

Bulls have the upper hand

In addition to the full flag, MATIC painted a cup-and-handle pattern that presented the possibility of the cryptocurrency hitting $1.80 soon.

Twitterati MK2 Trading spotted the bullish reversal indicator first on the Polygon token’s daily price chart. It showed the price forming a rounding bottom (cup) following an upside move and then painting a descending channel range (handle).

\\ MATIC/USD daily price chart featuring cup and handle pattern. Source: TradingView

A subsequent breakout from the handle’s trading range would signal a bullish continuation. In doing so, the price would eye a run-up toward the level at a length equal to the cup’s depth. As a result, MK2 Trading expects MATIC at $1.80 in the coming sessions.

Macro fundamentals

The latest bout of buying in the Polygon market appeared after Upbit, one of the leading South Korean crypto exchanges by volume, added MATIC pairs to its trading platform. Additionally, the exchange also listed Solana (SOL) and NuCypher (NU) pairs.

Solana was another standout performer on Friday, with its native token, SOL, surging by over 11.5%, while NuCypher’s NU rallied by more than 845% Friday after Upbit’s announcement.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74340.08894244-9d01-4c6a-be26-75f7522ec8e9.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:15141,shares:167,tags:[{id:fJ,slug:fK,title:fL,url:fM},{id:fQ,slug:fj,title:gq,url:fk},{id:eF,slug:eG,title:cx,url:eH},{id:"2551",slug:"market-capitalization",title:"Market Capitalization",url:"/tags/market-capitalization"},{id:"5956",slug:"coinmarketcap",title:"CoinMarketCap",url:"/tags/coinmarketcap"},{id:gl,slug:gm,title:eN,url:gn},{id:mH,slug:mI,title:mJ,url:mK},{id:mL,slug:H,title:y,url:mM},{id:hG,slug:hH,title:fR,url:hI},{id:"9567",slug:"ethereum-price",title:"Ethereum Price",url:"/tags/ethereum-price"},{id:"9577",slug:"polygon",title:"Polygon",url:"/tags/polygon"}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74340regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:cy,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"think-60k-is-the-top-this-bitcoin-fractal-suggests-it-s-the-next-bear-market-bottom",url:mp,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/think-60k-is-the-top-this-bitcoin-fractal-suggests-it-s-the-next-bear-market-bottom",title:hE,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:mq,datePublished:aB,dateHuman:aC,humanDateTime:"2021-10-15 09:55",dateISOFull:"2021-10-15T08:55:32+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:C,month:u,day:G,hour:eR,minute:55,second:32,millisecond:f},categorySlug:H,categoryUrl:L,categoryName:y,authorName:gs,authorUrl:gt,authorAvatar:hJ,previewText:"The cyclical nature of Bitcoin bull and bear markets means that $60,000 is mathematically more likely to be a floor, not a ceiling, in the future.",twitterLeadText:"The next Bitcoin bear market could see an 80% crash... to $60,000.",badgeSlug:j,badgeName:mN,fullText:"

Bitcoin (BTC) may have hit highs of $60,000, but calculations suggest that the price level will matter much more to bears, not bulls.

In a tweet on Oct. 14, popular Twitter account TechDev again highlighted historical data that has so far accurately tracked Bitcoin’s highs and lows.

How about an 80% BTC price crash to... $60,000?

While BTC/USD is tipped to retake all-time highs and climb to six figures this year, investors’ attention is already turning to how far Bitcoin will fall after its next blow-off top.

The idea that BTC price action moves in cycles — with a bearish phase and a bottom of 80% of the blow-off top — has become widely accepted.

What is much harder to believe in current circumstances, however, is that $60,000 may just be the price floor of that potential 80% correction.

Using Fibonacci sequences, TechDev showed that each Bitcoin bear bottom fell within an identical range. This accounts for both the sub-$200 lows in 2014 and the roughly $3,200 floor in December 2018.

Given Bitcoin’s cyclical metamorphoses, the next logical retracement, therefore, has anywhere from $47,000 to $60,000 as a target.

“I know no one cares about macro during a pump. But the last two BTC bear markets bottomed in the 1.486-1.618 log fib pocket of the previous cycle,” he commented.

“Suggests the next bear bottom is 47-60K. If that’s where we land after an 80-85% fall... The math gets fun.” \\ BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: TechDev/Twitter

$60,000 as 20% of the top puts Bitcoin in line for a test of $300,000 this cycle.

Uncanny resemblances to gold

The momentum behind Bitcoin has been tied to expectations that United States regulators will finally approve some form of Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Related: SEC likely to allow Bitcoin futures ETF to trade next week: Reports

While opinions on the impact of such a decision are mixed, its importance is no red herring, commentators say, and marks a genuine watershed for Bitcoin, which cannot be reversed.

Austrian investor and analyst Niko Jilch this week referenced famed investor Paul Tudor Jones while explaining the “excitement” over the Bitcoin ETF.

Tudor Jones had previously highlighted Bitcoin’s cycles being similar to gold in the 1970s — just when it had become a futures product itself and enjoyed a 10-year bull run followed by a 50% correction.

Gold’s 1970s rip, TechDev additionally noted, fits extremely neatly over Bitcoin’s performance since October 2020.

— TechDev (@TechDev_52) October 15, 2021 \n\n \n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74330.14f6f59d-eef6-4d51-b616-b4e05a49cf39.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:23622,shares:117,tags:[{id:D,slug:eA,title:I,url:cw},{id:eB,slug:eC,title:eD,url:eE},{id:eF,slug:eG,title:cx,url:eH},{id:"2954",slug:"predictions",title:"Predictions",url:"/tags/predictions"}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74330regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:aH,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"bitcoin-hits-60k-for-the-first-time-since-april-after-reports-of-imminent-etf-approval",url:mr,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-hits-60k-for-the-first-time-since-april-after-reports-of-imminent-etf-approval",title:hF,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:ms,datePublished:aB,dateHuman:aC,humanDateTime:"2021-10-15 06:52",dateISOFull:"2021-10-15T05:52:19+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:C,month:u,day:G,hour:N,minute:fl,second:fd,millisecond:f},categorySlug:H,categoryUrl:L,categoryName:y,authorName:"Brian Newar",authorUrl:"/authors/brian-newar",authorAvatar:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/422b8ae3bb89a5fca07ae7999226ef91.jpg",previewText:"Bitcoin has recaptured the $60,000 position after a six-month period of ups and downs.",twitterLeadText:"BREAKING: Bitcoin has topped $60K for the first time in nearly six months and is just 7% away from a new all time high.",badgeSlug:j,badgeName:"Breaking news",fullText:"

Bitcoin (BTC) has surpassed the $60,000 mark briefly for the first time since April 2021. The price has been boosted by reports suggesting a Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund (ETF) is likely to begin trading in the United States as early as next week. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro indicates that Bitcoin prices have been on a slow grind upward since the beginning of this month. Before the upward price action began, prices had hovered around $42,000 from Sept. 20 to Oct. 1. The $60,000 mark was first breached on Bitstamp exchange just after 5 am (UTC), and Bitcoin is now just 7% away from reclaiming its Apr. 14 all-time high of $64,804. The price has since eased slightly, and at the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $59,500.

Bloomberg reported earlier today that sources familiar with the matter had issued positive indications that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is likely to approve several Bitcoin futures ETFs to begin trading next week.

Rumors about the imminent approval saw a price increase of about $7,000 over the past seven days, equating to a 13% increase from $53,000 to $60,000. The sharpest increase was over the past two days, over which time Bitcoin has rallied from about $54,000 up to the current $60,000 high-water mark.

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b",open:tG,openFormatted:jb,high:tG,highFormatted:jb,low:1.111,lowFormatted:ey,volume24hour:387043971.59218323,volume24hourFormatted:"387.04 m",coinTradeVol:ef,coinTradeVolFormatted:eg,supply:eh,supplyFormatted:ei},{id:M,name:ca,label:cb,url:cc,value:fH,valueAltDesktop:fH,valueAltMobile:fH,changePercentage:pF,changeForWeek:1.59,changeForWeekFormatted:"+1.59%",changeForMonth:qY,changeForMonthFormatted:iV,isUp:a,isDown:b,isVisibleOnDesktop:a,isVisibleOnMobile:a,mktcap:210861215979.44556,mktcapFormatted:"210.86 b",open:6.493,openFormatted:tz,high:6.515,highFormatted:tA,low:6.465,lowFormatted:"6.47",volume24hour:17793664247.4487,volume24hourFormatted:"17.79 b",coinTradeVol:ej,coinTradeVolFormatted:ct,supply:ek,supplyFormatted:el},{id:cd,name:ce,label:cf,url:cg,value:fI,valueAltDesktop:fI,valueAltMobile:fI,changePercentage:gM,changeForWeek:kp,changeForWeekFormatted:kq,changeForMonth:-1.73,changeForMonthFormatted:sO,isUp:a,isDown:a,isVisibleOnDesktop:a,isVisibleOnMobile:a,mktcap:31105705635.36478,mktcapFormatted:"31.11 b",open:tH,openFormatted:fI,high:tH,highFormatted:fI,low:1.225,lowFormatted:fI,volume24hour:210727753.5217753,volume24hourFormatted:"210.73 m",coinTradeVol:em,coinTradeVolFormatted:en,supply:eo,supplyFormatted:ep},{id:ch,name:ci,label:cj,url:ck,value:lT,valueAltDesktop:lT,valueAltMobile:lT,changePercentage:"-1.63%",changeForWeek:4.96,changeForWeekFormatted:"+4.96%",changeForMonth:-20.95,changeForMonthFormatted:"-20.95%",isUp:a,isDown:b,isVisibleOnDesktop:a,isVisibleOnMobile:a,mktcap:47531278281.70816,mktcapFormatted:"47.53 b",open:215.12,openFormatted:"215.12",high:215.16,highFormatted:"215.16",low:214.06,lowFormatted:"214.06",volume24hour:2648727454.597308,volume24hourFormatted:"2.65 b",coinTradeVol:eq,coinTradeVolFormatted:er,supply:es,supplyFormatted:et},{id:cl,name:cm,label:cn,url:co,value:lU,valueAltDesktop:lU,valueAltMobile:lU,changePercentage:"+1.43%",changeForWeek:6.92,changeForWeekFormatted:"+6.92%",changeForMonth:-8.24,changeForMonthFormatted:"-8.24%",isUp:b,isDown:a,isVisibleOnDesktop:a,isVisibleOnMobile:a,mktcap:17839878419.486656,mktcapFormatted:"17.84 b",open:18.92,openFormatted:"18.92",high:18.98,highFormatted:"18.98",low:18.87,lowFormatted:"18.87",volume24hour:20141248.554574706,volume24hourFormatted:"20.14 m",coinTradeVol:eu,coinTradeVolFormatted:ev,supply:ew,supplyFormatted:ex}]},currencies:[{id:po,name:k,sign:pp,value:gK},{id:pq,name:l,sign:pr,value:gS},{id:ps,name:m,sign:pt,value:gZ},{id:pu,name:n,sign:gJ,value:hc},{id:pv,name:o,sign:pw,value:he},{id:px,name:p,sign:py,value:hg},{id:pz,name:q,sign:pA,value:hh},{id:pB,name:pC,sign:pD,value:hj},{id:pE,name:x,sign:gJ,value:hn}],graphs:{}},types:{},user:{isAuthed:a,isAuthedBySocials:a,token:h,id:h,firstName:c,lastName:c,userName:c,avatar:c,email:c,description:c,userGaId:c,ipAddress:"51.158.111.251",analyticsData:[],sessionId:c},vendors:{isVendorsModalShown:a,info:{},localI18n:{}},viewport:{isWindowActive:b,viewportWidth:f,viewportHeight:f,scrollTop:f,scrollIsLocked:a,breakpoint:"XS",isOverlayVisible:a,userDeviceType:{apple:{phone:a,ipod:a,tablet:a,device:a},amazon:{phone:a,tablet:a,device:a},android:{phone:a,tablet:a,device:a},windows:{phone:a,tablet:a,device:a},other:{blackberry:a,blackberry10:a,opera:a,firefox:a,chrome:a,safari:a,device:a},any:a,phone:a,tablet:a},bottomZoneHeight:f}},serverRendered:b,routePath:ho}}(false,true,"",void 0,2,0,"_self",null,1,"default","USD","EUR","GBP","JPY","RUR","KRW","TRY","Language",3,4,10,"en","es","CNY","Market Analysis","1","2","23",2021,"4","EOS","NEO",15,"market-analysis","Bitcoin","promo_button","18.87 m","/category/market-analysis","27",5,"https://hitbtc.com/?ref_id=5cba0be404aa3","changelly-button",50,"adbutler","xxs","xs","sm","md","lg","12","7","tr","9","https://changelly.com?utm_source=cointelegraphutm_medium=referralutm_campaign=changellyctengbuttonref_id=le9ssi8dgmskmqu0","hitbtc-button","Ethereum",11,"17","22","bybit2-button","bbt","https://www.bybit.com/bit-launch-event?medium=paid_bannersource=cointelegraphchannel=mkt_campaign=bitcontent=en_button",79,138,"article","cointelegraph.com","es.cointelegraph.com","br","cointelegraph.com.br","pt-BR",51,"https://cointelegraph.us3.list-manage.com/subscribe/post-json?u=2c088712615955cd2f82aa968id=7376af3992","https://cointelegraph.us3.list-manage.com/subscribe/post-json?u=2c088712615955cd2f82aa968id=aad9f6b505","21","26",48,"/bitcoin-cash-price-index","/ltc-price-index","/xrp-price-index","/xmr-price-index","_blank","2021-10-15","Oct 15, 2021",6,"en.LanguageType.1","en.LanguageType.2","en.LanguageType.23","74327","de","it","Note that all trading strategies are to be used at your own risk. Before trading, we recommend to make sure that you have a clear understanding of cryptocurrencies and how they are traded.","BTC","/bitcoin-price","ETH","/ethereum-price","3","LTC","Litecoin","XRP","Ripple","6","BCH","Bitcoin Cash","XMR","Monero","8","DASH","Dash","/dash-price-index","/eos-price-index","11","ZEC","Zcash","/zec-price-index","ADA","Cardano","/ada-price-index","13","/neo-price-index","14","TRX","TRON","/tron-price-index","15","BNB","Binance Coin","/binance-coin-price-index","16","XLM","Stellar","/stellar-price-index","USDT","Tether","/tether-price-index","18","MIOTA","IOTA","/iota-price-index","19","ONT","Ontology","/ontology-price-index","20","MKR","Maker","/maker-price-index","BSV","Bitcoin SV","/bsv-price-index","DOGE","Dogecoin","/doge-price-index","ETC","Ethereum Classic","/etc-price-index","24","XTZ","Tezos","/xtz-price-index","XEM","NEM","/nem-price-index","USDC","USD Coin","/usdc-price-index","28","CRO","Crypto.com Coin","/crypto-com-price-index","29","ATOM","Cosmos","/cosmos-price-index","30","LEO","UNUS SED LEO","/leo-price-index","1.00","65.32 b","2.78 b","1.00 b","2.76 b","0.86","0.73","/tags/bitcoin","Markets","74330",21,9,"Changelly",47,95,555373.65,"555.37 k",18845693,"18.85 m",4334790.91,"4.33 m",117956494.999,"117.96 m",15066532.78,"15.07 m",84000000,"84.00 m",3338139436.9,"3.34 b",99990202996,"99.99 b",2125386.15,"2.13 m",18874393.75,657098.06,"657.10 k",18012469.09037286,"18.01 m",1291056.22,"1.29 m",10382831.15198172,"10.38 m",230782370.33,"230.78 m",1036864274.1091,"1.04 b",1230135.86,"1.23 m",12880418.75,"12.88 m",1118088176.37,"1.12 b",33250650235.236,"33.25 b",4815294.36,"4.82 m",100000000,"100.00 m",10860648384.2,"10.86 b",100850743811.662,"100.85 b",4123040,"4.12 m",168137036,"168.14 m",4899736209.26,"4.90 b",50001802717.233894,"50.00 b",65320508247.82,71385677464.76012,"71.39 b",56097730.5,"56.10 m",2779530283,129826358.91,"129.83 m",1000000000,41683.75,"41.68 k",991328.38195493,"991.33 k",1624648.61,"1.62 m",18871282.89423905,5775588599.09,"5.78 b",131719284119.57153,"131.72 b",13503911.28,"13.50 m",210700000,"210.70 m",38578729.98,"38.58 m",892664975.385198,"892.66 m",348849266.6,"348.85 m",8999999999,"9.00 b",2764951999.17,32765659313.441254,"32.77 b",171146032.98,"171.15 m",30263013692,"30.26 b",12428616.01,"12.43 m",280815479.707483,"280.82 m",1077015.59,"1.08 m",985239504,"985.24 m","1.11","0.82","bitcoin","695","bitcoin-price","Bitcoin Price","/tags/bitcoin-price","2014","markets","/tags/markets","74395","74345","side","Y2hhbmdlbGx5LWJ1dHRvbg==","0.17","Market Update","tr.cointelegraph.com","74340",16,8,"Large devices"," 1200px","Medium devices"," 992px","Small tablets"," 768px","Smartphones"," 480px","Extra small devices","

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