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Bears intend to pin Bitcoin price below $43K until Friday’s $700M expiry passes

by Donna Ryder

$700 million in BTC options expire on Friday, and derivatives data signals that bears are positioned to profit from a sub-$45,000 Bitcoin price.

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Bears intend to pin Bitcoin price below $43K until Friday’s $700M expiry passes

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a descending pattern since the strong $53,000 rejection that occurred on Sept. 7, and the $3.4-billion futures contracts liquidation along with China’s ban on crypto trading appear to have severely impacted traders’ morale. 

Adding to the negative sentiment, major crypto exchanges such as Binance and Huobi halted some services in mainland China, and some of the largest Ethereum mining pools, like SparkPool and BeePool were forced to shut down completely.

Bitcoin price in USD at Coinbase. Source: TradingView

Based on the above chart, it is possible to understand why buyers placed 80% of their bets at $44,000 or higher. However, the past two weeks definitively caused those call (buy) options to lose value quickly.

On Sept. 25, the People’s Bank of China posted a nationwide ban on crypto and barred companies from providing financial transactions and services to market participants. The news triggered an 8% dip in Bitcoin’s price along with a broader pullback on altcoins.

The bearish sentiment was confirmed after Tesla CEO Elon Musk had expressed his support for cryptocurrency at the Code Conference in California.

Musk said:

“It is not possible to, I think, destroy crypto, but it is possible for governments to slow down its advancement.”

Had we been in a neutral-to-bullish market, those remarks would likely have reversed the negative trend. For example, on July 21, Musk said that Bitcoin had already hit its benchmark on renewable energy. As a result, Bitcoin’s price, which had previously dropped 12% in 10 days, reverted the move and hiked 35% over the next 10 days.

The Oct. 1 expiry will be a strength test for bulls because any price below $42,000 means a bloodbath with absolute dominance of put (sell) options.

Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Oct. 1. Source: Bybt

Initially, the $285-million neutral-to-bullish instruments dominated the weekly expiry by 21% compared to the $320-million puts (sell) options.

However, the 1.21 call-to-put ratio is deceiving because the excessive optimism seen from bulls could wipe out most of their bets if Bitcoin’s price remains below $43,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Friday.

After all, what good is a right to acquire Bitcoin at $50,000 if it’s trading below that price?

Bears were also caught by surprise

66% of the put options, where the buyer holds a right to sell Bitcoin at a pre-established price, has been placed at $42,000 or lower. These neutral-to-bearish instruments will become worthless if Bitcoin trades above that price on Friday morning.

Below are the four likeliest scenarios that consider the current price levels. The imbalance favoring either side represents the potential profit from the expiry.

The data shows how many contracts will be available on Friday, depending on the expiry price.

  • Between $40,000 and $41,000: 110 calls vs. 4,470 puts. The net result is $175 million favoring the protective put (bear) instruments.
  • Between $41,000 and $43,000: 640 calls vs. 4,000 puts. The net result continues to favor bears by $140 million.
  • Between $43,000 and $45,000: 1,780 calls vs. 2,070 puts. The net result is balanced between bears and bulls.
  • Above $45,000: 2,530 calls vs. 1,090 puts. The net result shifts in favor of bulls by $65 million.

This crude estimate considers call (buy) options used in bullish strategies and put (sell) options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Unfortunately, real life is not that simple because it’s possible that more complex investment strategies are being deployed.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining a positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price. Consequently, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect, so the simple analysis above is a good guess.

As things currently stand, bears have absolute control of the Oct. 1 expiry, and they have a few good reasons to keep pressuring the price below $43,000.

Unless some unexpected buying pressure comes out over the next 12 hours, the amount of capital required for bulls to force the market above the $45,000 threshold seems immense and unjustified.

On the other hand, bears need a 5% negative price swing that takes BTC below $41,000 to increase their lead by $35 million. So, this move also shows little return for the amount of effort required.

The bulls’ only hope resides in some surprise positive newsflow for Bitcoin’s price ahead of Oct. 1 at 8:00 am UTC. If any sensible action is bound to occur, it will likely take place during the weekend when there’s less active flow.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Airdrops have become the cryptocurrency ecosystem’s equivalent of stimulus checks over the past couple of years and further proof of this can be evidenced from popular protocols like Uniswap and dYdX which rewarded their early adopters with token drops that are now worth $30,000 to $2 million.

The latest protocol to surprise its userbase with a wallet fattening airdrop was Axie Infinity (AXS), a blockchain-based battle game that has risen in prominence over the course of 2021 as users embrace its play-to-earn (P2E) gaming model.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that since bounding off a low of $47.92 on Sept. 21, the price of AXS has stormed 145% higher to establish a new record high at $118.00 as its 24-hour trading volume surged from $421 million to $1.95 billion.

AXS/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Three reasons for the recent surge in AXS price over the past two weeks include the introduction of staking features for the AXS token, the release of a community airdrop early adopters and the increasing popularity of play-to-earn gaming protocols.

AXS launches staking

The growth of decentralized finance in 2021 has shone a spotlight on the ability of crypto holders to put their tokens to work and earn a yield through providing liquidity or staking.

In an effort to capture some of this momentum, as well as improve the overall tokenomics of the AXS token, the team at Axie Infinity announced the launch of staking capabilities on Sept. 30. This excited members of the community, and to date, holders have already staked nearly 9.8 million AXS in just two days.

AXS staking dashboard. Source: Axie Infinity

And it’s not just your average crypto user getting in on the staking action, as recent tweets show other gaming platforms in the crypto ecosystem, including Yield Guild Games, have announced that they are now staking their AXS holdings as a way to help increase the value of their respective ecosystems.

We are now staking all of our $AXS ($16.45M) from our treasury. Looking forward to the juicy AXS staking rewards! pic.twitter.com/mTNQiKCXXp

— Yield Guild Games (@YieldGuild) October 1, 2021 \n\n

Axie Infinity is currently offering an APR of 240% for stakers with the rewards coming from a dedicated pool of 78.3 million AXS tokens that have been set aside by the team.

AXS airdrops tokens to early adopters

A second reason for the spike in price and activity for AXS was this week's community airdrop which rewarded users who engaged with the protocol prior to October 26, 2020.

Thank you @AxieInfinity! I received 4905 $AXS. Worth more than nearly everything I had at this time last year.

Being a part of the Axie community is an incredibly rewarding experience. Socially, Intellectually, and Financially.

Thank you @AxieInfinity! https://t.co/2NEsU3MlfL

— Artic (@Axie44) September 30, 2021 \n\n

According to the team, 10,000 wallets were selected based on a snapshot that was taken on Oct. 26 to receive a share of the 800,000 AXS airdrop, depending on the wallet’s level of activity.

The more active users like the pseudonymous Twitter user ‘Arctic’ received larger allocations that are now worth nearly $500,000, while less active accounts received smaller allocations that are nonetheless still significant in terms of dollar value, especially in the more economically disadvantaged parts of the world where many Axie Infinity players reside.

Feels good to be an #AxieInfinity early believer 68 AXS received and ready for breeding. Trust the process https://t.co/FpzHa56Y6E pic.twitter.com/nNlXeBhpPG

— squarrre (@Sorareuk) September 30, 2021 \n\n

Related: NFT trading game Axie Infinity launches AXS staking program

The rising popularity of play-to-earn gaming

Another reason for the recent growth seen in Axie Infinity is the strength of the P2E gaming model which many analysts say will be the breakout sector in 2021.

Axie Infinity was actually the game that kicked off the P2E rally earlier in the year and this momentum translated to an uptick in other P2E protocols like Illuvium (ILV), Chain Guardians (CGG) and MyNeighborAlice (ALICE).

Top 5 gaming protocols by the 90-day change in USD price. Source: Messari

The P2E gaming sector of the crypto ecosystem has been gaining momentum in recent months as users begin to discover the benefits of playing a game that rewards participation, as opposed to the dominant free-to-play model which offers in-game purchases but leaves users with little to show after months of gameplay and investment.

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro, market conditions for AXS have been favorable for some time.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. AXS price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for AXS climbed into the dark green zone on Sept. 26 and reached a high of 87 around 35 hours before its price began to increase by 55% over the next three days.

The NewsQuake™ service from Cointelegraph Markets Pro registered two significant news announcements prior to the price rise, including a listing announcement from Bitstamp exchange and the team's announcement that AXS staking had launched.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n

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In September the frenzy that propelled the nonfungible token (NFT) sector quieted down but a burst of fresh energy emerged as the layer-two sector heated after the successful launch of Ethereum (ETH) scaling solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism. 

Another project that has benefited from the sector's transition to layer-1 and layer-2 alternatives is OMG Network (OMG), a non-custodial layer-two protocol that utilizes an optimistic rollup scaling solution to improve Ethereum scalability.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after hitting a low of $8.42 on July 20, the price of OMG has climbed 380% to reach a daily high at $13.52 on Oct. 1 on a record $3.37 billion in 24-hour trading volume.

OMG/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Prior to the market-wide pull-back that began in early May, OMG had been performing well in large part thanks to a Coinbase listing. A major development for the protocol came at the beginning of June when the project rebranded from OmiseGO to OMG Foundation as part of its pivot toward layer-two solutions.

Enya and the Boba Network back OMG's progress

A major part of the rebrand was to highlight the network’s partnership with Enya, a company that creates decentralized infrastructure solutions and the creator of the Boba Network.

1/ The Layer 2 space is heating up. @optimismPBC, @arbitrum, @StarkWareLtd and sidechains like @0xPolygon. We now have @bobanetwork The differentiating feature for Boba Network is fast transfers from Boba to #Ethereum mainnet, which is not found in other rollups.

— DeFi Info (@AboutDefi) August 19, 2021 \n\n

According to the project’s website, the Boba Network is a Ethereum layer-two optimistic rollup scaling solution aimed at reducing gas fees, improving transaction throughput and extending the capabilities of smart contracts.

With Enya building the Boba Network as a core contributor to the OMG Foundation, the OMG token has benefited from its association with the launch of a new layer-two solution

The rollout of the Boba Network, which rebranded from OMGX, began on Aug. 19 and closely tracked the rise in the price of OMG.

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for OMG on Aug. 16, prior to the recent price rise.

The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historical and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. OMG price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for OMG began to pick up on Aug. 16 and climbed to a high of 75 on Aug. 25, around 24 hours before the price began to increase by 100% over the next three weeks.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n

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Bullish sentiment returned to the cryptocurrency ecosystem on Oct. 1 after a 10% spike in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) lifted it above the $47,500 level and resulted in the liquidation of more than $270 million in short positions. 

The altcoin market quickly followed suit with a majority of the tokens in the top 200 registering double-digit gains for the day.

Top 7 coins with the highest 24-hour price change. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the biggest gainers over the past 24 hours were Oasis Network’s ROSE token, Axie Infinity Shards (AXS) and Icon’s ICX token.

The allure of privacy draws traders to Oasis Network

Oasis Network is a privacy-enabled blockchain designed for open finance and the creation of a responsible data economy.

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for ROSE on Sept. 30, prior to the recent price rise.

The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historical and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. ROSE price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for ROSE began to pick up on Sept. 29 and climbed to a high of 74 on Sept. 30, around three hours before the price increased 60% over the next two days.

The spike in price for ROSE comes as Ethereum-compatible networks that offer better scalability rise in prominence with the Oasis Network, outperforming many competitors thanks to its built-in privacy features.

Axie Infinity launches staking and sends airdrops to early adopters

Axie Infinity is a blockchain-based play-to-earn battling game that allows players to collect, breed, raise, battle and trade token-based creatures known as Axies, and earn an income in the process.

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro, market conditions for AXS have been favorable for some time.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. AXS price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for AXS spiked into the dark green zone on Sept. 26 and reached a high of 87 around 35 hours before the price began to increase by 55% over the next three days.

The surge in price for AXS comes following the implementation of staking capabilities for AXS holders as well as a community airdrop that distributed 800,000 AXS tokens to early adopters of the game.

Related: NFT trading game Axie Infinity launches AXS staking program

ICX rallies ahead of its mainnet upgrade

Icon is a general-purpose blockchain protocol and aggregator chain designed to host decentralized applications and facilitate interoperability between separate networks.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after hitting a low of $1.38 on Sept. 29, the price of ICX rallied 45% to a daily high at $1.93 on Oct. 1 as its 24-hour trading volume spiked 385% to $362 million.

ICX/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The jump in ICX price comes after the release of wrapped ICX, which is compliant with the ERC-20 standard and can be used interoperably with decentralized finance on Ethereum. The upgrade is part of the protocol’s final preparation before implementing the Icon 2.0 mainnet upgrade.

The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization now stands at $2.079 trillion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 43%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has the potential to double its market valuation in the coming months, thanks to a confluence of supportive technical and fundamental indicators.

Ether's price soared by more than 9% on Oct. 1 to hit nearly $3,300 for the first time in 10 days. Its gains surfaced primarily in the wake of a price rebound across all the top cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC), which gained 9.5% to hit $48,000, its highest level in 10 days.

Ether-Bitcoin correlation against rising U.S. inflation

Oct. 1’s crypto market boom coincided with the release of the United States Commerce Department’s report on consumer spending.

The data shows that the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose by 0.3% in August and was up 3.6% year-over-year. Thus, the core inflation surged to its highest levels in 30 years.

Speculators tend to treat Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, which explains the benchmark cryptocurrency’s latest response to the higher consumer prices in the United States.

Meanwhile, Ether’s 30-day average correlation with Bitcoin sits near 0.89, as per data from CryptoWatch, which resulted in ETH moving almost in lockstep with BTC.

\\ BTC/USD vs. ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

A University of Michigan survey conducted between Aug. 25 and Sept. 27 found that the longer-term inflation expectations among U.S. consumers rose to 3%, the highest in a decade.

The outcome appeared in contrast with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s views, who had described the rising inflation as “transitory” for months but admitted during a recent Senate hearing that the higher consumer prices might stay intact at least until the next year.

As a result, inflationary pressures gave crypto bulls a reason to pitch Bitcoin as an ultimate hedge, with MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor suggesting corporations convert their cash-based treasuries into BTC.

In the presence of rampant inflation, cash credit become crumbling liabilities. Convert your balance sheet to #bitcoin to turn liabilities into assets. https://t.co/kzCEPDA4S2

— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@michael_saylor) October 1, 2021 \n\n

MicroStrategy holds about 0.5% of the total Bitcoin supply in circulation, currently worth over $6 billion.

Supply squeeze

Ethereum went through a network hard fork upgrade on Aug. 5 that further raised the bullish outlook for Ether, owing to the classic law of supply and demand.

Dubbed the London hard fork, the upgrade introduced an improvement protocol, EIP-1559, that initiated the burning of a portion of Ethereum’s network fee, called the base fee. So far, EIP-1559’s activation has permanently removed 410,404 ETH (around $1.32 billion) out of active supply, as per Watch the Burn.

Ethereum is also preparing to switch its consensus mechanism from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS). As a result, it has launched a staking pool that will allow users to earn rewards and grow their ETH holdings if they lock 32 ETH into the official PoS smart contract for a certain period.

So far, the amount of ETH deposited in the Ethereum 2.0 staking contract has surged from around 11,500 in November 2020 to 7.82 million ETH today. That said, the transition has effectively temporarily removed 7.82 million ETH from circulation.

\\ Total ETH staked in Ethereum 2.0 smart contract. Source: CryptoQuant

On the other hand, the total amount of Ether tokens held across all crypto exchanges has dropped to record lows. Data from CryptoQuant shows that exchanges now hold only 18.1 million ETH compared with 23.73 million ETH a year ago.

Ether reserves across all crypto exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant

The declining ETH reserves show that traders may want to hold their Ether tokens rather than sell them for other assets, as there could be a supply squeeze for investors looking to enter the Ether market, thus making ETH more valuable.

With EIP 1559 #ethereum supply will likely peak around 120 million, after which it will go down and down and down, meanwhile demand will be rising. Pretty sure that means the number will go up.

— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) September 24, 2021 \n\n

Cup and handle

A mix of lower supply and higher demand serves as a bullish backstop for the price of Ether. Meanwhile, more evidence for an upside breakout comes from a cup and handle pattern on Ether’s longer-timeframe charts.

Related:  Ethereum bears look to score on Friday’s $340M weekly ETH options expiry

The cup and handle is a bullish continuation pattern, comprising a rounding bottom and a descending channel setup, as shown in the chart below. The structure’s profit target is typically at a length equal to the cup’s maximum height.

\\ ETH/USD daily price chart featuring cup and handle pattern. Source: TradingView

Considering that the cup’s resistance level is near $4,000, a breakout from there could send ETH to above $6,000, almost double its current price.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/73656.d6c643e9-2de3-485d-a1c0-5ef8040efd23.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:15376,shares:eS,tags:[{id:eG,slug:eH,title:eI,url:eJ},{id:gt,slug:hK,title:hL,url:hM},{id:gq,slug:fS,title:X,url:fl},{id:hN,slug:hO,title:gu,url:hP},{id:eK,slug:eL,title:eM,url:eN},{id:aC,slug:aD,title:ak,url:aE},{id:mY,slug:mZ,title:m_,url:m$},{id:na,slug:nb,title:nc,url:nd},{id:hQ,slug:hR,title:hS,url:hT},{id:hE,slug:hF,title:fm,url:hG},{id:fM,slug:z,title:u,url:fN},{id:"9567",slug:"ethereum-price",title:"Ethereum Price",url:"/tags/ethereum-price"}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=73656regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:eP,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"bitcoin-history-repeating-3-indicators-suggest-october-will-reignite-the-btc-bull-market",url:mw,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-history-repeating-3-indicators-suggest-october-will-reignite-the-btc-bull-market",title:hr,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:mx,datePublished:_,dateHuman:"13 hours ago",humanDateTime:"2021-10-01 14:25",dateISOFull:"2021-10-01T13:25:00+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:C,month:v,day:i,hour:eT,minute:eA,second:f,millisecond:f},categorySlug:z,categoryUrl:N,categoryName:u,authorName:gr,authorUrl:gs,authorAvatar:hJ,previewText:"The flagship cryptocurrency has closed October in profit seven out of nine times since 2013, raising hopes that it will be able to log a fractal bull run in the next 31 days.",twitterLeadText:"Bitcoin has closed October in profits seven out of nine times since 2013. ",badgeSlug:fL,badgeName:u,fullText:"

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break the so-called September curse, with its price falling by a little over 7% into the month despite a strong rebound rally right ahead of its close. Nonetheless, Bitcoin looks to be making a comeback in October, a month known for painting aggressive bullish reversals.

Bybt data shows that Bitcoin has closed October in profit the majority of the time since 2013 — with a success rate of over 77%. Last year, the cryptocurrency surged by 28% to reach levels above $13,500 after finishing September at around $10,800, following an approximate 7.5% decline.

\\ Bitcoin monthly returns since 2013. Source: Bybt

Similarly, Bitcoin climbed higher by over 10% by the end of October 2019 despite plunging by around 14% the previous month. That made September look like a sell-off month for traders, with its record of logging losses seven out of nine times since 2013.

In contrast, October posed itself as a period of dip-buying, suggesting that traders may end up pumping Bitcoin’s price higher by Oct. 31.

The October fractal surfaces despite alarming signals in the form of China’s intensifying crackdown and the United States’ tougher regulatory stance on the crypto sector.

Additionally, the prospects of the Federal Reserve limiting its $120-billion-a-month bond-purchasing program later this year appear to have been limiting Bitcoin’s upside outlook. The loose monetary policy, combined with the U.S. central bank’s near-zero interest rates, was instrumental in pumping Bitcoin’s price from below $4,000 in March 2020 to almost $65,000 by April 2021.

But despite the short-term setbacks, a flurry of key indicators reveal that investors still want exposure in the booming cryptocurrency space.

Institutional inflows

Crypto data tracking service CryptoCompare noted in its report that volumes associated with digital asset investment products rose 9.6% in September. Meanwhile, the weekly product inflows rose to $69.7 million, the highest since May 2021.

“Bitcoin-based products saw the highest level of inflows out of any asset, averaging $31.2 million per week,” CryptoCompare wrote, adding that “There could be upside going into the last quarter of 2021.”

Average weekly net inflow by asset for the month of September. Source: CryptoCompare

The 20-week EMA fractal

Technical indicators also pointed to a bullish session ahead for Bitcoin as it formed a base around $40,000 before the September close and reclaimed key resistance levels as interim support. That included the bias-defining 21-week exponential moving average (21-week EMA).

As Cointelegraph covered earlier , a drop below the 21-week EMA increased Bitcoin’s probability to continue falling by 78%. On Sept. 27, the cryptocurrency fell below the green wave (as shown in the chart below) but reclaimed it as support while entering the October session.

\\ BTC/USD weekly price chart featuring 20-week EMA-focused bull runs. Source: TradingView

A move above the 20-week EMA, accompanied by rising volumes, has historically led to explosive Bitcoin bull runs. As a result, if the fractal repeats, BTC price may head toward a new record high in the weeks ahead.

Bull pennant breakout

Another technical indicator that has been predicting a bullish outcome for Bitcoin is the bull pennant.

Related: Analyst nails Bitcoin monthly close 2 months running — His October target is $63K

In detail, BTC’s price has been consolidating inside two converging trendlines following its 500-plus percent rally.

Traditional analysts view these lateral moves as a sign of bullish continuation. In doing so, they anticipate that the price will break above the pattern’s upper trendline — and rise by as much as the length of the previous uptrend, called the flagpole.

\\ Bitcoin weekly price chart featuring bull pennant structure. Source: TradingView

As a result, Bitcoin’s path of least resistance appears to be to the upside, with a potential breakout move looking to send its prices toward $100,000 (the flagpole’s height is roughly $50,000).

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/73630.1401ec87-f151-40ed-9d5f-41ef93a34e2a.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:16543,shares:126,tags:[{id:G,slug:es,title:H,url:cr},{id:eG,slug:eH,title:eI,url:eJ},{id:gt,slug:hK,title:hL,url:hM},{id:ne,slug:nf,title:ng,url:nh},{id:hN,slug:hO,title:gu,url:hP},{id:eK,slug:eL,title:eM,url:eN},{id:ni,slug:nj,title:nk,url:nl},{id:"1021",slug:"investments",title:"Investments",url:"/tags/investments"},{id:mh,slug:mi,title:mj,url:mk},{id:aC,slug:aD,title:ak,url:aE},{id:mY,slug:mZ,title:m_,url:m$},{id:"3182",slug:"bonds",title:"Bonds",url:"/tags/bonds"},{id:"4621",slug:"people-s-bank-of-china",title:"Peoples Bank of China",url:"/tags/people-s-bank-of-china"},{id:hQ,slug:hR,title:hS,url:hT},{id:"5956",slug:"coinmarketcap",title:"CoinMarketCap",url:"/tags/coinmarketcap"},{id:hE,slug:hF,title:fm,url:hG},{id:"9362",slug:"tech-analysis",title:"Tech Analysis",url:"/tags/tech-analysis"},{id:fM,slug:z,title:u,url:fN}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=73630regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:an,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"say-hi-to-uptober-bitcoin-price-surges-above-47k-in-minutes-liquidating-270m-in-shorts",url:hs,absoluteUrl:nm,title:gk,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:ht,datePublished:_,dateHuman:"16 hours ago",humanDateTime:"2021-10-01 12:09",dateISOFull:"2021-10-01T11:09:25+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:C,month:v,day:i,hour:aB,minute:M,second:eA,millisecond:f},categorySlug:z,categoryUrl:N,categoryName:u,authorName:fo,authorUrl:fp,authorAvatar:nn,previewText:"October already feels like a different planet to September for traders as abrupt upside sees resistance levels fall like dominoes.",twitterLeadText:"Bitcoin bears' worst nightmare: $BTC surges to nearly $48,000 in a classic short squeeze",badgeSlug:j,badgeName:fm,fullText:"

Bitcoin (BTC) shot to nearly $48,000 during Oct. 1 as a classic “short squeeze” liquidated over $270 million of crypto positions in under an hour.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

“Goodbye bears”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $47,800 on Bitstamp, jumping $3,000 in minutes.

A familiar setup for traders, the upward volatility followed signs that a BTC price recovery was already on the way Thursday, particularly as the dollar struggled.

— Daniel Joe (@DanielJoe916) October 1, 2021 \n\n

$270M liquidations in an hour

say hi to uptober

— Lex Moskovski (@mskvsk) October 1, 2021 \n\n

At the time of writing, volatility remained, with BTC/USD still above $47,000 — the site of August’s monthly close.

“Goodbye bears,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe reacted in one of many bullish tweets from traders following the move.

Fellow analyst Rekt Capital, meanwhile, provided a more sombre take.

“Bitcoin will retrace deep enough to convince you that the Bull Market is over,” he warned.

“And then it will resume its uptrend.”

The last time Bitcoin saw $47,000 was on Sept. 19.

BTC liquidations 1-hour chart. Source: Bybt

“Uptober” lives up to its name

The mood was just as buoyant among major altcoins, which in some cases saw gains of over 10%, matching BTC/USD.

Related: Analyst nails Bitcoin monthly close 2 months running — His October target is $63K

Bitcoin dominance had already picked up into the new month, standing at 43.3% at the time of writing.

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/73625.07c51246-9a41-4eec-a9ad-c2a19ee207bd.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:31434,shares:352,tags:[{id:G,slug:es,title:H,url:cr},{id:ex,slug:ey,title:fk,url:ez},{id:eK,slug:eL,title:eM,url:eN},{id:aC,slug:aD,title:ak,url:aE}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=73625regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:eQ,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"bitcoin-price-eyes-50k-as-the-us-dollar-retreats-after-hitting-its-one-year-high",url:my,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-eyes-50k-as-the-us-dollar-retreats-after-hitting-its-one-year-high",title:hu,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:mz,datePublished:_,dateHuman:"18 hours ago",humanDateTime:"2021-10-01 09:12",dateISOFull:"2021-10-01T08:12:34+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:C,month:v,day:i,hour:fq,minute:fr,second:34,millisecond:f},categorySlug:z,categoryUrl:N,categoryName:u,authorName:gr,authorUrl:gs,authorAvatar:hJ,previewText:"Rising jobless claims in the U.S. sparked sell-offs in the dollar market. On the other hand, Bitcoin held onto its intraday gains.",twitterLeadText:"Bitcoin shoots above $44K as the dollar strength index (DXY) hits resistance. ",badgeSlug:fL,badgeName:u,fullText:"

Bitcoin (BTC) looks to reclaim $45,000 on Oct. 1 as the United States dollar retreated lower after hitting its one-year high. Bitcoin’s tight inverse correlation with the greenback over the past month suggests that a weakening dollar could push BTC’s price even higher in the coming sessions. 

\\ Bitcoin-dollar correlation on hourly chart. Source: TradingView

Dollar drops following labor market shock

In detail, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of six foreign currencies, including the euro and sterling, hit 94.50 Thursday for the first time since Sept. 28, 2020. But it retreated on news of rising U.S. jobless claims against the forecasts of a decline.

The labor data released Thursday showed that the number of jobless claims rose to 362,000 last week against 351,000 a week earlier and against the economists’ projection of 333,000. As a result, the number of reapplications got stuck around 2.8 million for five weeks in a row.

For the markets, this could be news that the Federal Reserve might delay tapering its $120-billion asset-purchasing program from November to a later month, thus keeping interest rates lower and the dollar’s renewed strength temporary.

\\ DXY daily price chart. Source: TradingView

The index was trading at 94.263 at the time of writing.

Technical outlook projects Bitcoin higher, dollar lower

Technicals also showed the greenback facing the prospect of a correction ahead. For example, independent market analyst TradingShot spotted the dollar index inside a megaphone pattern, which is about to get topped out to pursue a correction in the coming sessions, as shown in the chart below.

\\ U.S. dollar index daily price chart featuring megaphone technical setup. Source: TradingShot, TradingView

“Based on the 1D relative strength index (RSI), it appears that DXY is right at the top of the formation as [it was] on Aug 15, 2018,” TradingShot wrote.

“DXY is building up a strong pull-back to the bottom of the Megaphone.”

Meanwhile, a recent bout of selling in the Bitcoin market lately had it paint a falling wedge pattern. In detail, falling wedges appear when the price trends lower inside a channel comprising two diverging, descending trendlines.

Traditional analysts see the falling wedge pattern as a bullish reversal indicator, noting that a break above its upper trendline moves the price higher by as much as the maximum distance between the wedge’s trendlines.

\\ BTC/USD daily price chart featuring falling wedge setup. Source: TradingView

The structure’s maximum height is roughly $10,000. As a result, Bitcoin’s price can at least retest $50,000 should the wedge breakout play out as intended.

A weaker dollar means stronger Bitcoin

On the other hand, the underwhelming jobs report could boost investors’ interim appetite for Bitcoin. 

Related: Bitcoin’s sharp fall from $50K linked to stronger US dollar, gold — Correlation shows

Vasja Zupan, president of Matrix Exchange, told Cointelegraph that the dollar’s weakness and devaluation against rising inflation would continue to make investors put their excess cash in crypto markets. He said:

“Bitcoin in its core proposition has an integrated hedge against inflation and, therefore, persistently higher inflation in the U.S. can only push it upwards. Therefore, in the long term, the dollar’s worth will continue to be lesser than Bitcoin.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n

\n\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/73621.62c7c07d-eff8-4a25-8096-8cf6f6e6292f.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:22335,shares:81,tags:[{id:G,slug:es,title:H,url:cr},{id:gt,slug:hK,title:hL,url:hM},{id:"343",slug:"dollar",title:"Dollar",url:"/tags/dollar"},{id:"502",slug:"central-bank",title:"Central Bank",url:"/tags/central-bank"},{id:hN,slug:hO,title:gu,url:hP},{id:eK,slug:eL,title:eM,url:eN},{id:ni,slug:nj,title:nk,url:nl},{id:"1163",slug:"economics",title:"Economics",url:"/tags/economics"},{id:"1541",slug:"economy",title:"Economy",url:"/tags/economy"},{id:"1773",slug:"hyperinflation",title:"Hyperinflation",url:"/tags/hyperinflation"},{id:aC,slug:aD,title:ak,url:aE},{id:na,slug:nb,title:nc,url:nd},{id:"2855",slug:"interest-rates",title:"Interest Rates",url:"/tags/interest-rates"},{id:"2909",slug:"quantitative-easing",title:"Quantitative Easing",url:"/tags/quantitative-easing"},{id:hQ,slug:hR,title:hS,url:hT},{id:fM,slug:z,title:u,url:fN},{id:"9520",slug:"digital-dollar",title:"Digital Dollar",url:"/tags/digital-dollar"}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=73621regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:ew,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"analyst-nails-bitcoin-monthly-close-2-months-running-his-october-target-is-63k",url:mA,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/analyst-nails-bitcoin-monthly-close-2-months-running-his-october-target-is-63k",title:hv,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:mB,datePublished:_,dateHuman:"19 hours ago",humanDateTime:"2021-10-01 08:52",dateISOFull:"2021-10-01T07:52:49+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:C,month:v,day:i,hour:fs,minute:eS,second:49,millisecond:f},categorySlug:z,categoryUrl:N,categoryName:u,authorName:fo,authorUrl:fp,authorAvatar:nn,previewText:"Bitcoin price action exactly conforms to PlanB’s predictions for a second time, and if history repeats itself, BTC/USD should be at $63,000 by the end of the month.",twitterLeadText:"@100trillionUSD has done it again! Bitcoin price closes September right on target.",badgeSlug:j,badgeName:fm,fullText:"

Bitcoin (BTC) was keen to retain $44,000 on Oct. 1 as the monthly close sparked a late show of strength.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC monthly close matches PlanB’s prediction

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it first returned to the $44,000 mark Thursday, then test lower levels before heading even higher.

While still not tackling resistance at $45,000 and higher, Bitcoin did not disappoint with its end-of-month performance, this almost exactly matching predictions from stock-to-flow model creator PlanB for a second month running.

Aug47k✅ Sep43k✅ Next targets: Oct63k, Nov98k, Dec135k pic.twitter.com/C45nfQkQSC

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 1, 2021 \n\n

With $63,000 now planned for October, expectations were high for Bitcoin to make up for lost ground going into Q4.

“September was bad. October is great. November is great. December is great,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized, telling Twitter followers to “buy the f*cking dip.”

Van de Poppe highlighted historical performance across various months each year, something which Cointelegraph previously noted all but consigned September to be a “boring” 30 days.

Others, however, were more cautious. In its latest market update, crypto trading firm QCP Capital said that it would remain cautious in its approach to the market as a whole.

“Overall, we struggle to find any directional conviction amidst the macro and market crosswinds. Our strategy going into Q4 is to remain fairly neutral and nimble,” executives summarized.

Macro factors at play were China’s reiteration of its crypto crackdown and two United States issues: legislation and the potential approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

On Friday, a vote on the government’s infrastructure bill, originally slated to happen Monday, was again delayed after a shutdown later this month was averted in a separate vote.

Ether returns to $3,000

Altcoins, meanwhile, saw another 24 hours of modest-to-flat moves, again headed by Binance Coin (BNB) on 6% daily gains.

Related: Bitcoin ‘FOMO rally’ long overdue that could see BTC price top $200K — Bobby Lee

All of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization were in the green at the time of writing, however, marking a refreshing contrast to recent action.

Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin, traded above $3,000 on the back of 3% returns.

ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/73620.9e7da3ca-05aa-40a6-bd4d-eeae54942a7e.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:24549,shares:76,tags:[{id:G,slug:es,title:H,url:cr},{id:ex,slug:ey,title:fk,url:ez},{id:gq,slug:fS,title:X,url:fl},{id:eK,slug:eL,title:eM,url:eN},{id:aC,slug:aD,title:ak,url:aE},{id:"2954",slug:"predictions",title:"Predictions",url:"/tags/predictions"},{id:"9509",slug:"ether-price",title:"Ether Price",url:"/tags/ether-price"}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=73620regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:eR,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"defi-and-dex-volumes-soar-amid-china-s-crypto-ban-and-ongoing-us-regulation",url:mC,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/defi-and-dex-volumes-soar-amid-china-s-crypto-ban-and-ongoing-us-regulation",title:hw,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:mD,datePublished:mg,dateHuman:"Oct 01, 2021",humanDateTime:"2021-10-01 00:00",dateISOFull:"2021-09-30T23:00:00+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:C,month:M,day:ff,hour:gv,minute:f,second:f,millisecond:f},categorySlug:z,categoryUrl:N,categoryName:u,authorName:gm,authorUrl:gn,authorAvatar:go,previewText:"Data shows that crypto holders are increasingly shifting to DeFi protocols and DEXs as China continues its cryptocurrency crackdown and fears of heavy-handed regulation scare US-based traders.",twitterLeadText:"Crypto investors in China and the US responded to the recent crackdown and regulatory fears by shifting funds to the DeFi and DEX ecosystem, as evidenced by data from #Uniswap and #dYdX.",badgeSlug:fL,badgeName:u,fullText:"

Last week, China’s heavy-handed crackdown on crypto trading briefly sent shockwaves across the market as Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoin prices saw a sharp drop following the announcement, but as is the case with all things crypto-related, the market bounced back as resilient traders found other ways to participate in the market. 

Part of China’s goal in limiting citizens' ability to trade cryptocurrency seems focused on discouraging the use of cryptocurrencies and the growing decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, but these maneuvers appear to be having the opposite effect, as the token price and protocol activity for projects like Uniswap and dYdX have seen an uptick since the crackdown began.

According to data from Chainalysis, there has been a significant amount of regional Bitcoin flows happening within eastern Asia, as highlighted by the tall orange bar in the graph below. This suggests that crypto holders in the region have been shifting around their holdings in response to the regulatory crackdown.

Regional BTC flows. Source: Chainalysis

As stated by Chainalysis, “Assets typically flow within a region, likely due to preferences for local exchanges, but flows between regions often occur as a result of regulatory concerns, geopolitical changes, or significant market price variations.”

The lack of flows out of Eastern Asia, combined with crypto exchanges like Huobi and Binance suspending services for Chinese residents, suggests that funds are being kept within the region — but not on centralized exchanges.

It seems Huobi users moved $ETH, #stablecoins, and DEX tokens to decentralized exchanges like Uniswap.

Outflow transactions spiked after Huobi announced the suspension of existing accounts in mainland China.

Ironically, regulation led to decentralization this time. pic.twitter.com/EKpkHIdSv0

— Ki Young Ju 주기영 (@ki_young_ju) September 29, 2021 \n\n

Related: Derivatives DEX dYdX beats out Coinbase’s spot markets by volume amid China FUD

Gains in the DeFi ecosystem

At the same time that this increased movement within the East Asia region was occurring, activity on decentralized exchanges like Uniswap and the decentralized derivatives exchange dYdX has been on the rise as traders in China seek out a safe haven for their crypto activities.

Uniswap trading volume vs. total revenue. Source: Token Terminal

DYdX is a particularly helpful data point, as it is now the most widely used decentralized derivatives exchange and has seen a spike in demand since regulators from around the world dropped the hammer on centralized exchanges with loose Know Your Customer policies that offer derivatives services.

According to data from Token Terminal, dYdX is in the top five ranking for numerous categories over the past week, including the increase in DYDX token price, total protocol revenue, fees paid, the price-to-sales ratio and the price-to-earnings ratio. The exchange also rose to the top six in terms of increases in total value locked.

Total revenue vs. total value locked on dYdX. Source: Token Terminal

A closer look at the available data also shows that layer-two protocols and layer-one Ethereum competitors have also seen some of the biggest gains over the past week, led by Avalanche-based protocols like Trader Joe and Pangolin, as well as the Fantom network.

Above all else, what the recent data shows is that the decentralized finance ecosystem is performing as it was originally intended by providing an uncensorable way for crypto holders to transact outside of the control and purview of governments and financial regulators.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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0,2,0,"_self",null,1,"default","USD","EUR","GBP","JPY","RUR","KRW","TRY",3,"Language",4,"Market Analysis",10,"en","es","CNY","market-analysis","1","2",2021,5,"EOS","NEO","4","Bitcoin","23","7","promo_button","18.86 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Cash","XMR","Monero","DASH","Dash","/dash-price-index","9","/eos-price-index","ZEC","Zcash","/zec-price-index","ADA","Cardano","/ada-price-index","13","/neo-price-index","14","TRX","TRON","/tron-price-index","15","BNB","Binance Coin","/binance-coin-price-index","16","XLM","Stellar","/stellar-price-index","USDT","Tether","/tether-price-index","18","MIOTA","IOTA","/iota-price-index","19","ONT","Ontology","/ontology-price-index","20","MKR","Maker","/maker-price-index","BSV","Bitcoin SV","/bsv-price-index","DOGE","Dogecoin","/doge-price-index","ETC","Ethereum Classic","/etc-price-index","24","XTZ","Tezos","/xtz-price-index","XEM","NEM","/nem-price-index","USDC","USD Coin","/usdc-price-index","28","CRO","Crypto.com Coin","/crypto-com-price-index","29","ATOM","Cosmos","/cosmos-price-index","30","LEO","UNUS SED LEO","/leo-price-index","1.04 b","2.07 b","1.00","3.46 b","/tags/bitcoin",6,"Note that all trading strategies are to be used at your own risk. Before trading, we recommend to make sure that you have a clear understanding of cryptocurrencies and how they are traded.","Changelly",50,95,872147.02,"872.15 k",18831931,"18.83 m",6684376.69,"6.68 m",117756827.9365,"117.76 m",18494126.78,"18.49 m",66754202.01538747,"66.75 m",5048973312.11,"5.05 b",99990236671,"99.99 b",2252533.06,"2.25 m",18861018.75,1031750.1,"1.03 m",18003516.7856679,"18.00 m",1613935.56,"1.61 m",10360922.2837196,"10.36 m",341703749.31,"341.70 m",1035609593.3194,2168245.6,"2.17 m",12773712.5,"12.77 m",1469219431.6,"1.47 b",33117618880.453,"33.12 b",7636421.47,"7.64 m",100000000,"100.00 m",13059777866.59,"13.06 b",100850743811.662,"100.85 b",5185888.54,"5.19 m",168137036,"168.14 m",2074955086.14,50001802756.348,"50.00 b",81269617505.65,"81.27 b",71385677474.96931,"71.39 b",152636438.11,"152.64 m",2779530283,"2.78 b",135845487.92,"135.85 m",1000000000,"1.00 b",61993.71,"61.99 k",991328.38195493,"991.33 k",2378586.97,"2.38 m",18857832.89423905,6726115694.76,"6.73 b",131515107336.0046,"131.52 b",28635970.54,"28.64 m",210700000,"210.70 m",127897010.13,"127.90 m",890964050.609906,"890.96 m",405019537.87,"405.02 m",8999999999,"9.00 b",3458573969.56,31945449636.40868,"31.95 b",312011437.99,"312.01 m",30263013692,"30.26 b",31796360.09,"31.80 m",280042996.9294,"280.04 m",872194.24,"872.19 k",985239504,"985.24 m","bitcoin","br","cointelegraph.com.br","pt-BR","73620","139","altcoin","/tags/altcoin",25,"side","youtube","Y2hhbmdlbGx5LWJ1dHRvbg==","0.85","0.16","72","cryptocurrencies","Cryptocurrencies","/tags/cryptocurrencies","695","bitcoin-price","Bitcoin Price","/tags/bitcoin-price","en.LanguageType.23","73630","73621","73600",52,13,"Large devices"," 1200px","Medium devices"," 992px","Small tablets"," 768px","Smartphones"," 480px","Extra small devices","

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