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3 reasons why Terra (LUNA) price hit a new all-time high

by CEES STAPEL

The successful launch of the long-awaited Columbus-5 upgrade is just one of the factors in LUNA’s ascension to a new record high.

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3 reasons why Terra (LUNA) price hit a new all-time high

Protocol upgrades are one of the biggest drivers of momentum because they show developers' dedication to fixing bugs, incorporating user requests and adding new features that make the protocol competitive and shore up the token's value.

One project that has seen its token price rally to a new all-time high following the launch of a highly anticipated upgrade is Terra (LUNA), a blockchain protocol that uses fiat-pegged stablecoins like TerrUSD (UST) to create a global payments system.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after hitting a low of $23.81 on Sept. 21, the price of LUNA surged 108% to establish a new record high at $49.55 on Oct. 4 as its 24-hour trading volume spiked to $2.5 billion.

LUNA/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Three reasons for the price breakout in LUNA include the launch of its Columbus-5 upgrade which introduced a LUNA burning mechanism, the protocol’s adoption of the IBC standard which opens Terra to the Cosmos ecosystem and an increase in DeFi applications and total value locked on the protocol. 

Columbus-5 arrives

Columbus-5 launched on Sept. 30 and according to Terra developers and independent analysts, the upgrade is the most significant development to happen to the protocol to date.

One of the notable changes to come along with the upgrade was a modification to the project’s tokenomic model which leads to all LUNA used to mint UST being burned, instead of going into the community pool.

According to data from Terra, there were $832 million worth of LUNA burned in the genesis block of Columbus-5.

This change has introduced deflationary pressure to the LUNA supply and it could help boost its price in the long term as demand for UST grows.

Inter-Blockchain Communication standard

A second reason for the boost in LUNA's momentum was its integration with the Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) standard which allows the Terra network to communicate and interact with protocols in the Cosmos ecosystem.

This integration opens up Terra and its UST stablecoin to more widespread adoption throughout the Cosmos ecosystem and make it the stablecoin of choice for applications and chains in the network.

With a larger pool of projects now having access to UST, this could lead to a further deflation in the supply of LUNA becaus more will need to be burned in the process of minting new UST.

Related: Evolve or die: How smart contracts are shifting the crypto sector’s balance of power

The total value locked in the Terra ecosystem is surging

A third reason for the bullish price moves in LUNA has been the network's growing ecosystem of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols that have helped push the total value locked on the protocol to a new all-time high.

According to data from Defi Llama, the total value of assets locked on the Terra network reached a record $10.07 billion on Oct. 4 right as LUNA price was breaking out to a new record high.

Total value locked on Terra. Source: Defi Llama

Currently, Terra's TVL is above $10 billion and the top-ranked platform in terms of TVL is Ancor Protocol (ANC) with $3.86 billion. ANC is the main avenue for minting UST by pledging LUNA or Ether (ETH) as collateral.

Other notable DeFi protocols on the network include Lido (LDO), which has a TVL of $3 billion, Mirror (MIR) with a TVL of $1.38 billion and Terraswap which has a $1.32 billion TVL.

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for LUNA on Sept. 26, prior to the recent price rise.

The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historical and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. LUNA price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for LUNA began to pick up on Sept. 21 and reached a high of 73 around one hour before the price began to increase 108% over the next two weeks.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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One of the notable changes to come along with the upgrade was a modification to the project’s tokenomic model which leads to all LUNA used to mint UST being burned, instead of going into the community pool.

According to data from Terra, there were $832 million worth of LUNA burned in the genesis block of Columbus-5.

This change has introduced deflationary pressure to the LUNA supply and it could help boost its price in the long term as demand for UST grows.

Inter-Blockchain Communication standard

A second reason for the boost in LUNA's momentum was its integration with the Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) standard which allows the Terra network to communicate and interact with protocols in the Cosmos ecosystem.

This integration opens up Terra and its UST stablecoin to more widespread adoption throughout the Cosmos ecosystem and make it the stablecoin of choice for applications and chains in the network.

With a larger pool of projects now having access to UST, this could lead to a further deflation in the supply of LUNA becaus more will need to be burned in the process of minting new UST.

Related: Evolve or die: How smart contracts are shifting the crypto sector’s balance of power

The total value locked in the Terra ecosystem is surging

A third reason for the bullish price moves in LUNA has been the network's growing ecosystem of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols that have helped push the total value locked on the protocol to a new all-time high.

According to data from Defi Llama, the total value of assets locked on the Terra network reached a record $10.07 billion on Oct. 4 right as LUNA price was breaking out to a new record high.

Total value locked on Terra. Source: Defi Llama

Currently, Terra's TVL is above $10 billion and the top-ranked platform in terms of TVL is Ancor Protocol (ANC) with $3.86 billion. ANC is the main avenue for minting UST by pledging LUNA or Ether (ETH) as collateral.

Other notable DeFi protocols on the network include Lido (LDO), which has a TVL of $3 billion, Mirror (MIR) with a TVL of $1.38 billion and Terraswap which has a $1.32 billion TVL.

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for LUNA on Sept. 26, prior to the recent price rise.

The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historical and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. LUNA price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for LUNA began to pick up on Sept. 21 and reached a high of 73 around one hour before the price began to increase 108% over the next two weeks.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n

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Bitcoin (BTC) looks poised to pursue a run-up towards $100,000 as its price breaks out of a classic bullish structure.

Dubbed as the Bull Pennant, the setup represents a price consolidation period with converging trendlines that form after a strong move higher. It ultimately prompts the price to break out in the direction of its previous trend to a level typically at length higher by as much as the size of the initial large move.

On Bitcoin weekly charts, the cryptocurrency appeared to have been trending inside a similar consolidation structure, with its price fluctuating inside a triangle-like structure following a strong move higher (Flagpole).

BTC/USD weekly price chart featuring Bull Pennant setup. Source: TradingView.com

Last week, Bitcoin broke above the structure's upper trendline as it rose by 13.5%, with rising trading volumes to boot. As a result, the cryptocurrency's breakout move indicated its potential to rise by as much as the size of its previous trend (nearly $50,000).

Measuring from the point of breakout (~$48,200), the Bull Pennant's upside target thereby comes out to be another $50,000 higher, i.e., almost $100,000.

Other predictions

The technical setup projected Bitcoin at $100,000 not longer after many analysts envisioned the cryptocurrency at the same, six-digital valuation.

A team of researchers at Standard Chartered, headed by its global head of emerging market currency research, Geoffrey Kendrick, predicted BTC to hit $100,000 by early next year. They cited Bitcoin's potential to become \"the dominant peer-to-peer payment method for the global unbanked\" behind their bullish prediction.

David Gokhshtein, the founder of Gokhshtein Media and PAC Global, also imagined Bitcoin above $100,000 before the end of 2021. The executive based his bullish outlook on the amount of available fiat liquidity in the market, which, according to him, has prompted leading Wall Street players to purchase Bitcoin.

\"Not everybody's going to come out publicly and tell you that they're buying bitcoin, but they are,\" Gokhshtein told Business Insider.

\"There's too much money in the market. Way too much money. Institutions did not come in here to play for five minutes.\"

His statements appeared after George Soros' investment firm revealed at a Bloomberg event that it owns Bitcoin, sending the cryptocurrency spiking. That was soon followed by JPMorgan Chase's latest report that showing institutional investors' preference for Bitcoin over gold as an inflation hedge.

In an earlier study published in May, the banking giant projected Bitcoin to reach $140,000 in the long term.

Holding sentiment on rise

On-chain indicators highlighted a rise in holding sentiment among Bitcoin traders.

Related: Tesla may have made more money holding Bitcoin than selling cars

In detail, the Bitcoin reserves held across all crypto exchanges recently dropped to their lowest levels in a year, as per data provided by blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The decline illustrated traders' intention to hold their Bitcoin tokens close than trading them for other fiat/digital assets.

BTC reserves across all exchanges. Source: TradingView.com

Therefore, declining Bitcoin balances on exchanges typically follow up with a rise in the BTC price.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n

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Bitcoin (BTC) kept markets guessing into the Wall Street open on Oct. 11 after seeing rejection on hitting its highest since May.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC price teases $58,000 February high

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD tracking $57,000 after reaching $57,450 on Bitstamp — its best since May 10.

In so doing, Bitcoin effectively fully canceled out the impact of China’s mining debacle and subsequent redistribution of hash rate around the world.

If you're reading this, you survived the #BTC crash in May 2021$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 11, 2021 \n\n

Amid a celebratory mood among analysts, predictions broadly centered on a run to a six-figure peak initiating sooner rather than later.

“All data science models suggest that BTC will peak much higher than $100,000 in this cycle,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital added on the day.

Even at current prices, BTC/USD has only been higher 38 days in its lifetime, Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano noted.

Bitcoin supply crisis becomes mainstream

That could be assisted by a unique macro-environment further adding to Bitcoin’s allure as a finite-supply investment, Bloomberg said.

Related: BTC price hits $57K five-month high — 5 things to watch in BTC this week

In the latest of his frequent bullish Bitcoin tweets, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, highlighted upcoming turmoil over United States fiscal policy.

“Relative to rising US debt and tensions over a potential default, Bitcoin may be entering a unique phase for a 4Q price rise as markets gain trust in the coding that defines the crypto’s supply,” he tweeted.

“The debt-ceiling drama may work against managers that avoid allocations to Bitcoin”

\\ Bitcoin supply vs. U.S. debt-to-GDP chart. Source: Mike McGlone/Twitter

The concerns failed to worry the dollar at the start of the week, however, with the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) climbing once more above the 94 support.

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Shiba Inu (SHIB) kickstarted its new weekly session in the green as it continued its bullish retracement move from last week’s low of $0.00002058.

SHIB’s price logged an intraday high of $0.00002907 on Oct. 11, netting over 40% returns from its ongoing rebound trend. In doing so, the Dogecoin-inspired meme cryptocurrency eyed an extended runup toward its technical resistance level near $0.00002978, as shown in the chart below.

\\ SHIB/USDT 4-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

Extended rally ahead?

The Shiba Inu chart also shows traders’ intention to accumulate SHIB tokens when its price tests the 20-4H exponential moving average (20-4H EMA; the green wave) as support.

For instance, the cryptocurrency crashed by over 40% on Oct. 7 as Shiba Inu’s addresses worth 1 million–10 million SHIB dumped over 31 billion tokens, the largest in six months, as per Santiment data. However, the price recovered as traders started accumulating SHIB tokens near the 20-4H EMA.

Additionally, Shiba Inu’s ongoing retracement took cues from a potential correlation between the 1million–10 million SHIB address dump and its price. Santiment noted that Shiba Inu’s price rebounds every time after SHIB millionaires dump their holdings, as shown in the chart below.

Shiba Inu supply distribution. Source: Santiment

That shows micro traders’ intention to absorb massive selloffs. 

Retail sentiment moons

The bullish retracement in the SHIB market coincided with a rising number of internet queries for the keyword “Shiba Inu,” as per Google Trends. 

Web data shows a rise in the Shiba Inu trend in the United States on a 12-month interest timeframe, signaling booming retail interest. At 92, the trend is closer to the peak popularity score of 100, last seen in the second week of May. It indicates that more internet users are looking for information on Shiba Inu. 

\\ Google searches for \"Shiba Inu.\" Source: Google Trends

Nevertheless, the internet queries for the keyword “how to buy Shiba Inu” came out to be only 18 in the same period. Nonetheless, compared to the previous week, the interest shot up by 260%.

Tale of two indicators

On a technical front, SHIB’s latest rebound move appears to have invalidated a bearish setup that Cointelegraph discussed in one of its previous coverages.

Related: Shiba Inu is now a top-20 cryptocurrency with SHIB price soaring 300% in 9 days

Specifically, SHIB’s price broke bullish out of an otherwise bearish descending triangle pattern as it closed above the structure’s upper trendline with a rise in trading volume. While the breakout still awaits confirmation, it has boosted the prospects of bullish continuation.

The reason for an extended upside is a makeshift bull pennant, which typically sends the price higher by as much as the height of the previous upside move. In other words, SHIB’s breakout above its bull pennant pattern could send its price to $0.00004713.

\\ SHIB/USDT 4-hour price chart featuring bull pennant setup. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, should the price slip back inside the pennant range, it would risk reactivating the descending triangle setup. In doing so, SHIB may eye a correction toward $0.00002195, followed by a negative breakout move toward $0.00001000.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n

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Bitcoin (BTC) is in top form — almost literally — as it heads into a new week less than 15% away from all-time highs.

A classic cocktail of factors has laid the foundation for a fourth-quarter finale, which analysts are now confidently comparing to the bull runs of 2013 and 2017.

Decoupling from macro market movements and the U.S. dollar, Bitcoin is once again looking like the gold alternative that investors want — all while altcoins slip away.

With “Uptober” still only in its second full week, Cointelegraph takes a look at what might lie in store for BTC price action over the coming days.

Altcoins lag ahead of “Bitcoin season”

Things are looking rosy as the week begins for Bitcoin traders — last week’s four-month highs are back and beaten.

With the exception of a curious anomaly on exchange Bitstamp, which saw a momentary wick down to $51,000, a quiet weekend preserved previous gains.

Now seemingly lining up an attack on the final resistance below all-time highs of $64,500, BTC price action is delighting market participants.

Still standing behind this scenario on #Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/Xw2GMZEKS2

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 11, 2021 \n\n

There’s a further aspect behind Bitcoin’s strength, however — one that could preserve further upside in the short term.

Altcoins are underperforming, leading to predictions of a “Bitcoin season” before some form of alt season reemerges later on. As Cointelegraph reported, this might not be until 2022 .

$BTC dom vs #ALTSEASON Alts bleeding out again as we speak, most down around 10-20% vs the BTC pair since this post

Each 1% = roughly a 10% drop vs BTC ratios

Volatile week ahead w/etf not conductive to high alt exposure

Remember long alts is equivalent to short btc short vol https://t.co/hWQulj6Qo7 pic.twitter.com/nv11k4IUHZ

— Pentoshi Won’t Dm You. hates Dm’s. DM's are scams (@Pentosh1) October 10, 2021 \n\n

The situation is particularly visible in Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin by market capitalization, which is now at its lowest against BTC since the start of August.

“ETH/BTC breaking down, while Bitcoin consolidating,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized on Oct. 10.

“I’m assuming Bitcoin continues, while altcoins are not getting the game yet.” ETH/BTC 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Van de Poppe nonetheless suggested a contentious cycle price peak for ETH/USD of up to $20,000, with a timeframe of Q1 2022.

“You are here”

It takes a lot to please Bitcoiners when it comes to BTC price action.

As any longtime inhabitant of Crypto Twitter will know, even the most unexpected moves in BTC/USD can only satisfy sentiment for so long before investors demand more.

Last week was no exception: Bitcoin gained $3,000 in minutes, added $5,000 in an hour and hit four-month highs — but days later, commentators complained of being “bored.”

The weight of expectations for Bitcoin in 2021 — the year after the third halving and, therefore, the deadline for a halving cycle price top — is palpable.

How far BTC price could rise is a matter of intense debate, and while some argue that $200,000 or even $300,000 is “programmed,” others are already losing faith, claiming that this cycle cannot be like the last two.

Comparing post-halving years, however, appears to deliver an almost unanimous verdict on Bitcoin’s chances: The main rise to a blow-off top has yet to begin.

September’s dip below $40,000, for example, echoes similar events in 2013 and 2017. These came immediately before liftoff, acting as the “ultimate” bear trap.

You are here. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/syDyfsmlV1

— TechDev (@TechDev_52) October 9, 2021 \n\n

Overlaying 2021 price performance onto that from 2017 likewise produces uncanny similarities.

All these findings, from popular trading account TechDev, point to this year’s peak being an order of magnitude above the last. Technical or not, the analyst argues, a six-figure high is all but logically guaranteed.

The similarities, meanwhile, are nothing new, with various sources charting the extent of price conformity to previous post-halving years throughout 2021.

One day, $31 billion settled

A lot of attention has focused on Bitcoin’s network fundamentals throughout the 2020–2021 bull run, but there’s more.

With the hash rate and difficulty all but recovered and nearing all-time highs, fresh data shows that other aspects of Bitcoin are setting records of their own.

This week, it’s about network capacity and scaling — all on-chain, before the Lightning Network is even factored in.

As noted by analyst Kevin Rooke, a single day last week saw Bitcoin handle over $30 billion of value.

“$31 billion. That’s how much value was settled on the Bitcoin blockchain in a single day this week,“ he commented.

“It’s a new all-time high for Bitcoin, and a 40x jump in settlement value since 2020 began.” \\ Bitcoin daily transaction volume chart. Source: Kevin Rooke/Twitter

The impressive transformation has been accompanied by consistency in cost — Bitcoin transaction fees remain low .

Questions over GBTC

The countdown to a decision on a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) continues to excite this week — but is an approval already “priced in?”

While U.S. regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission has pushed back the deadline on deciding the fate of spot-based Bitcoin ETFs to November, this month will see a “yes” or “no” on futures-backed ETF products.

The latter have attracted praise and criticism in equal measure , while a question mark also hangs over the fate of existing institutional Bitcoin instruments, notably market heavyweight the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

Against a rapidly rising Bitcoin price, GBTC continues to trade at a significant discount to spot price, and that trend has only deepened in recent weeks.

GBTC Premium chart. Source: Bybt

Should ETFs get the go-ahead, analysts argue that ever more capital will flow into them, long ahead of Grayscale itself converting its funds to ETFs.

For macro analyst Lyn Alden Schwartzer, the chances of the so-called “Grayscale premium” returning to even neutral territory seem slim.

“I doubt it, but it’s not impossible for it to happen if there is a huge bitcoin rally and no ETF available at the time,” she responded when asked in a social media discussion over the weekend.

Bitcoin's performance exceeded the base case that I wrote about it in 2020, partly due to the GBTC neutral arbitrage trade which pulled forward temporary extra demand.

Now it's back on a more sustainable path imo, driven by HODLer accumulation. Looks good, let's see. https://t.co/RlPWBZYtNE pic.twitter.com/B99jQ1eIAt

— Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) October 9, 2021 \n\n

Alden was updating research from last year in which she had highlighted the role of GBTC in Bitcoin price action. The relative absence of the phenomenon now, she said, is conversely positive for the sustainability of BTC price performance.

Sustainable greed?

For those concerned that the return to four-month highs has been accompanied by market instability, think again.

Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, DOT, UNI, LINK, XMR

According to the Crypto Fear Greed Index sentiment gauge, the latest BTC price uptick is firmly rooted in sustainable growth.

This contrasts with the norm — moves to highs, and especially near all-time highs, tend to see the index reach “extreme greed.” This, in turn, suggests an unsustainable market that is easy to destabilize, sparking a price correction.

So far, while near $57,000, the Fear Greed Index measures only 71/100 — “greed” rather than “extreme greed” and still far from the classic top area of 95/100 and higher.

\\ Crypto Fear Greed Index as of Oct. 11. Source: Alternative

October has nonetheless produced major changes in sentiment. On Sept. 30, for example — just two weeks ago — the index measured 20/100, or “extreme fear.”

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Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to trade near the $55,000 level. The sharp rally in Bitcoin has pushed its market dominance from 40.70% on Sep. 12 to about 45% on Oct. 11. This shows that the strong recovery in cryptocurrencies has been led primarily by Bitcoin. 

This sharp run-up in Bitcoin has pushed the Fear and Greed indicator into the Greed zone. Although this indicator suggests that markets may have run up quickly in a short time, it does not necessarily signal a confirmed short-term top.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

History suggests that traders who sold their Bitcoin positions on this metric alone could have missed strong gains before the correction set in, as highlighted by Cointelegraph Marke analyst Marcel Pechman.

Could bulls extend the up-move and push the price closer to the all-time high in Bitcoin? If that happens, select altcoins may rally to the upside. Let’s study the charts of the top five cryptocurrencies that could remain strong in the short term.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin soared above the stiff overhead resistance at $52,920 on Oct. 6 and the bulls have held the price above the breakout level since then. This is a positive sign as it indicates that buyers may be holding on to their positions expecting higher levels in the short term.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the overbought zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

If buyers push the price above $56,100, the uptrend could resume and the BTC/USDT pair may rally to $60,000. Above this level, a retest of the all-time high at $64,854 is possible.

Contrary to this assumption, if bears pull the price below $52,920, the pair could drop to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($49,504). This is an important support for the bulls to defend because a break below it could signal a change in the short-term sentiment.

The pair could then drop to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($47,578) and next to $40,000.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are facing selling in the $55,750 to $56,100 zone but a positive sign is that buyers have not allowed the price to dip below the 20-EMA. This indicates that bulls anticipate a break above the overhead zone.

If that happens, the pair could resume its uptrend. The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-EMA. The RSI is forming a negative divergence, signaling that the momentum may be weakening.

A break and close below the 20-EMA could pull the price to the 50-SMA. A break below this support could start a deeper correction.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) has been gradually moving higher toward the overhead resistance at $38.77. The RSI has broken out of the downtrend line and the 20-day EMA ($32.15) has started to turn up, indicating an advantage to buyers.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If bulls thrust the price above $38.77, it will invalidate the head and shoulders pattern. The failure of a bearish setup is a bullish sign as it may trap the aggressive bears who then try to cover their positions, resulting in a short-squeeze.

The DOT/USDT pair could then start its journey toward $49.78. Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below the moving averages, the pair could drop to $28.60.

A bounce off this support could keep the pair range-bound for a few days. The bears will have to pull the price below the neckline to signal their supremacy.

DOT/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, suggesting that buyers are in control. The pair could drop to the 20-EMA, which is likely to act as a strong support. If the price turns up from this support, the bulls will try to push the pair to $38.77.

This level may again act as a stiff resistance but if bulls do not give up much ground from it, the possibility of a break above it increases.

Conversely, if bears pull the price below the 20-EMA, the pair could drop to the 50-SMA. A break and close below this support could result in a decline to $31 and then $29.

UNI/USDT

Uniswap (UNI) has been holding above the 20-day EMA (24.55) for the past few days, which shows that bulls are trying to defend this support. However, the bears are in no mood to relent as they have not allowed the price to rise above the neckline.

UNI/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The buyers will have to push and close the price above the neckline to complete an inverse HS pattern. This bullish reversal setup has a pattern target at $36.98 but the rally may not be linear as bears will try to defend the level at $31.41.

The 20-day EMA is rising gradually and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting that bulls have a slight edge. This advantage will be lost if the price breaks and closes below the 20-day EMA.

In such a case, the UNI/USDT pair could drop to $22. This level may act as a support but if bears sink the price below it, the pair could extend the decline to $17.73.

\\ UNI/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart shows that the price has roughly been consolidating in a tight range between $24 and $26 for some time. Usually, such tight ranges result in the start of a directional move.

If buyers drive and sustain the price above $26, the possibility of a break above the neckline increases. That could start the march toward the next overhead resistance at $30 and then to $31.

On the other hand, if the price breaks below $24, the short-term trend may turn in favor of bears. The pair could then drop to $22.

Related: XRP price eyes $1.50 next after bouncing 30% in just 10 days

LINK/USDT

Chainlink (LINK) broke above the downtrend line on Oct. 1, but the bulls have not been able to capitalize on this move. The altcoin has been stuck in a tight range between $25.20 and $26.19 for the past few days.

LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Both moving averages are flat and the RSI has been trading just above the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. This equilibrium will tilt in favor of buyers if the price breaks and closes above $28.19.

The LINK/USDT pair could then rally to $32.11 and later challenge the stiff overhead resistance at $35.33.

Alternatively, a break and close below $25.20 could signal that supply exceeds demand. The pair could then drop to the $22 to $20.82 support zone.

LINK/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The price turned down from the overhead resistance and bears have pulled the price below the moving averages. If sellers sustain the lower levels, the pair could drop to the support at $25.20. A break below this level could signal that bears are back in command.

Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level and rises back above the moving averages, it will suggest that traders are buying on dips. The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above $28.19 to signal that they are back in the driver’s seat. Thereafter, the pair could rally to $32.11.

XMR/USDT

Monero (XMR) rose above the 50-day SMA ($271) on Oct. 5 and reached the downtrend line on Oct. 6. The bears are aggressively defending the downtrend line for the past few days but a minor positive is that bulls have not allowed the price to dip back below the 50-day SMA.

XMR/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($263) is sloping up gradually and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating a minor advantage to buyers. A break and close above the psychological mark at $300 could open the doors for an up-move to $325 and then to $339.70.

On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that short-term traders may have dumped their positions. That could pull the price down to $250 and later to $225.

XMR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls have pushed the price above the downtrend line repeatedly but the bears have not allowed the pair to sustain above it. The 20-EMA has flattened out and the RSI is close to the center, suggesting a balance between supply and demand.

If the price breaks below the 50-SMA, the short-term bulls may rush to the exit. That could pull the price down to $260 and next to $250.

Conversely, if bulls push the price above $286.8, the pair could rise to $296.80. The bullish momentum may pick up if bulls thrust the price above this resistance.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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XRP has a good chance of hitting $1.50 in the fourth quarter of 2021 after painting a bullish crossover between its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA).

The so-called golden cross has appeared multiple times on XRP charts in history. Its last occurrence was on Aug. 10, which followed up with an 80% price rally later, with XRP topping out seasonally at $1.43 before pulling back to the downside. 

Similarly, a close of XRP’s 20-day EMA above 50-day EMA on Feb. 4, coincided with an approximately 400% price rally afterward. In doing so, XRP reached a year-to-date high of $1.98, further attesting that the latest golden cross could prompt a similar bullish response from traders.

\\ XRP/USD daily price chart featuring Golden Cross. Source: TradingView

More cues for an upside move come from a rising wedge pattern. The upper and lower trendlines of the ascending channel pattern have lately served as resistance and support to XRP’s price moves. The cryptocurrency’s ongoing upside move also followed a strong bounce from the wedge’s lower trendline, as shown in the chart above.

Thus, XRP’s potential to stretch its rebound toward the wedge’s upper trendline seems high. That roughly paints a bullish target of $1.50 for XRP.

Ripple vs. the SEC

The latest bout of buying in XRP markets also came in the wake of a recent SEC v. Ripple lawsuit update.

For the uninitiated, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission filed an action against Ripple Labs and two of its executives in December 2020, alleging that they raised over $1.3 billion through an unregistered securities offering via XRP tokens.

In response, Ripple Labs has been trying to prove that XRP is a utility token — not a security — based on the former SEC director William Hinman’s speech wherein he noted that Ether (ETH), a blockchain token like XRP, is not a security asset.

The current SEC regime argues that Hinman’s opinions were personal. But based on recent findings, the U.S. securities regulator may have been lying.

Ripple’s legal team recently submitted logs in the court that showed the SEC directing its employees to analyze digital currencies as per the framework provided by Hinman. It could prove that Hinman’s speech was not a mere personal opinion but an official directive.

Related: Judge rejects XRP hodlers’ bid to join SEC against Ripple case as defendants

Judge Sarah Netburn ruled in favor of Ripple Labs and added the proofs to its “in camera” review.

#XRPCommunnity #SECGov v. #Ripple #XRP BREAKING: 1/3 Judge Netburn Orders the SEC to submit for in camera review the two documents related to the SEC's meetings with law firms and the email chain concerning discussions with a third party who received guidance from the SEC pic.twitter.com/zbjDi7HKYJ

— James K. Filan (@FilanLaw) October 8, 2021 \n\n

The ruling came out on Friday, which was followed by a 17% rally in XRP’s price.

Bearish reversal pattern also in PL

XRP’s rising wedge is a bearish reversal pattern. As a result, the cryptocurrency’s gains in the future could face correction risks if the price breaks below the lower trendline.

\\ XRP/USD price chart featuring Rising Wedge breakout setup. Source: TradingView

The potential negative breakout risks sending XRP’s price as low as the maximum distance between the wedge’s lower and upper trendline. That would put the cryptocurrency’s downside target under $0.65.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n

",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74046.7f0d7948-4a38-4f39-accc-5d0727a393d6.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:18913,shares:mP,tags:[{id:eD,slug:eE,title:eF,url:eG},{id:fb,slug:eH,title:fF,url:eI},{id:"436",slug:"security",title:"Security",url:"/tags/security"},{id:"581",slug:ng,title:aB,url:"/tags/ripple"},{id:"1212",slug:"sec",title:"SEC",url:"/tags/sec"},{id:"1663",slug:"xrp",title:aC,url:"/tags/xrp"},{id:ar,slug:as,title:ae,url:at},{id:nh,slug:ni,title:hI,url:nj},{id:eO,slug:w,title:v,url:eP}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74046regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:fj,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"shiba-inu-is-now-a-top-20-cryptocurrency-with-shib-price-soaring-300-in-9-days",url:mB,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/shiba-inu-is-now-a-top-20-cryptocurrency-with-shib-price-soaring-300-in-9-days",title:hD,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:mD,datePublished:nk,dateHuman:nl,humanDateTime:"2021-10-09 15:41",dateISOFull:"2021-10-09T14:41:16+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:C,month:u,day:cw,hour:gm,minute:41,second:nm,millisecond:f},categorySlug:w,categoryUrl:J,categoryName:v,authorName:fk,authorUrl:fl,authorAvatar:fJ,previewText:mC,twitterLeadText:"Shiba Inu overtakes Stellar and Polygon to become an $11 billion crypto project.",badgeSlug:fm,badgeName:v,fullText:"

The run-up in the price of Shiba Inu (SHIB) so far in October has pushed the SHIB token to become the 20th largest digital asset by market capitalization.

Shiba Inu's circulating market valuation jumped to $11.08 billion earlier this week and is currently above $10 billion, putting it in the top-20 by market cap for the first time. As a result, the Dogecoin-inspired meme cryptocurrency became more valuable than popular blockchain projects like Stellar (XLM), Polygon (MATIC) and Tron (TRX).

SHIB market cap versus price. Source: Messari

The growth in Shiba Inu's valuation came on the heels of a tweet published by Elon Musk. On Oct. 4, the Tesla CEO posted the picture of his pet dog — a Shiba Inu breed — with the caption \"Floki Frunkpuppy.\" SHIB jumped by more than 40% an hour after the tweet.

Floki Frunkpuppy pic.twitter.com/xAr8T0Jfdf

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 4, 2021 \n\n

Crypto speculators tend to read too much into Musk's tweets. For example, the billionaire entrepreneur was instrumental in pushing the Dogecoin (DOGE) price higher earlier in 2021 via Twitter.

SHIB price surged by almost 400% a week after opening the fourth quarter of 2021 at $0.00000725. In doing so, the token retested its five-month high of $0.00003528 on Oct. 7.

Nevertheless, SHIB underwent a 40%-plus price correction on the same date as some traders decided to unwind their spot positions for interim profits. As a result, Shiba Inu's market cap fell in tandem, going to as low as $8.06 billion on Oct..

SHIB/USDT daily price chart. Source: TradingView.com

The sell-off across Shiba Inu markets, against the dollar and Bitcoin (BTC), prompted buy-the-dip sentiment. A rebound rally ensued, which pushed the SHIB price up by more than 45%. At its highest on Oct. 9, the token was changing hands for $0.00003020, with its market cap around $10.73 billion.

What is next for SHIB?

The Shiba Inu price dropped on Oct. 9 by more than 5% to reach a fresh intraday low of  $0.00002575. In doing so, the cryptocurrency hinted at forming a potential descending triangle pattern, suggesting additional losses ahead.

Related: 'Much ow' ahead? Dogecoin chart fractal puts Shiba Inu's 390% QTD rally in danger

In detail, descending triangles are typically bearish patterns that form when the price trends lower while fluctuating between an area defined by two converging trendlines: one falling and the other horizontal, such as the ones SHIB has formed in the chart below.

SHIB/USDT four-hour price chart featuring descending triangle setup. Source: TradingView.com

The formation of lower highs atop a standstill support line indicates weakening buying sentiment among traders. As a result, the price ultimately tends to break below the horizontal trendline. In doing so, its target shifts to a level at a length equal to the maximum triangle height. 

In other words, SHIB price may go under $0.00001000 in the coming sessions if the abovementioned support level fails to hold.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n

\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74031.9020a6a3-76d6-4d0e-ab30-fb452ecb3aef.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:31682,shares:101,tags:[{id:mR,slug:hJ,title:ai,url:mS},{id:eD,slug:eE,title:eF,url:eG},{id:fb,slug:eH,title:fF,url:eI},{id:gi,slug:gj,title:fK,url:gk},{id:ar,slug:as,title:ae,url:at},{id:nn,slug:no,title:np,url:nq},{id:"9307",slug:"elon-musk",title:"Elon Musk",url:"/tags/elon-musk"},{id:nh,slug:ni,title:hI,url:nj},{id:"9362",slug:"tech-analysis",title:"Tech Analysis",url:"/tags/tech-analysis"},{id:eO,slug:w,title:v,url:eP},{id:hs,slug:ht,title:fD,url:hu}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74031regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:eL,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"what-bitcoin-correction-btc-price-holds-55k-despite-several-bearish-indicators",url:mE,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/what-bitcoin-correction-btc-price-holds-55k-despite-several-bearish-indicators",title:hE,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:mF,datePublished:nk,dateHuman:nl,humanDateTime:"2021-10-09 14:36",dateISOFull:"2021-10-09T13:36:53+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:C,month:u,day:cw,hour:eQ,minute:nr,second:hH,millisecond:f},categorySlug:w,categoryUrl:J,categoryName:v,authorName:"Marcel Pechman",authorUrl:"/authors/marcel-pechman",authorAvatar:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/d9a60dad74ee00672dd6fb80d9d5ea76.jpg",previewText:"Bitcoin price refuses to pull back despite Bollinger Bands and Fear and Greed pointing to an overheated rally.",twitterLeadText:"Crypto market \"greed\" and other metrics flashing warning signs doesn't necessarily mean Bitcoin will correct any time soon, argues @noshitcoins. ",badgeSlug:fm,badgeName:v,fullText:"

Experienced analysts and media outlets including Cointelegraph recently highlighted some indicators suggesting that the Bitcoin (BTC) price rally could be overextended.

Those bearish views include one from Bollinger bands creator John Bollinger, suggesting traders use a trailing stop, as signs of a “top” were building up.

However, it is worth noting that Bollinger Bands and the Fear and Greed indicator are backward-looking metrics. Therefore, those will usually flash overbought levels whenever there’s a 30% weekly rally, such as the most recent one.

As crypto analyst TechDev_52 correctly questioned, there’s no way to know whether we’re entering a large potential correction or a rally continuation.

Now you know why they call it a bear “trap”. It’s damn convincing.

How do you know the “trap” from the “peak”? One’s round the other’s pointy.

Which does this look like to you? $BTC pic.twitter.com/aumWqaMsut

— TechDev (@TechDev_52) May 16, 2021 \n\n

For example, popular YouTuber and trader Nebraskangooner shows that the recent $56,000 top could have been the upper range of a bullish channel that has guided Bitcoin since late July.

— NebraskanGooner (@nebraskangooner) October 6, 2021 \n\n

\"Greed\" mode can last for weeks or months

Going back to the Fear and Greed indicator, below are some examples that such a metric can sustain overbought levels for longer than three or four weeks.

Bitcoin ‘Fear Greed’ index (above) and Bitcoin price at Bitstamp (below). Source: btctools.io, TradingView

Notice how between Jan. 29 to Feb. 26, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed indicator remained above 65, indicating that traders were overconfident.

The metric uses trading volume, futures open interest, social metrics and search data to calculate how hyped the market is.

Thus, it took four weeks before a significant Bitcoin price correction took place after the warning sign popped up. Whoever sold in the initial days after the indicator flashes missed the 70% rally that followed.

A similar pattern happened between July 23 and Aug. 25, while the Bitcoin price continued to rally. Yes, a correction will always come at some point, but how many weeks or months later?

Bollinger Bands, a good short-term indicator

John Bollinger is an experienced and well-respected trader, but his indicator is the moving average plus some deviation based on the current volatility. In short, a 30% weekly move will be outside this range most of the time, considering Bitcoin’s usual 4.5% daily volatility.

Bitcoin price at Coinbase using 20-day Bolling Bands. Source: TradingView

Certainly, a minor correction tends to follow through when Bitcoin breaks the upper Bollinger band, but that has absolutely zero correlation to the price some two to four weeks ahead.

The funding rate has been neutral

Lastly, one should analyze the funding rate, a fee charged by derivatives’ exchanges to balance the risk between longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers) as their leverage varies. Sure enough, when a buying spree takes place, the indicator goes up.

Bitcoin 8-hour perpetual futures funding rate. Source: Bybt.com

The current 0.04% average rate per eight-hour, or 0.8% per week, is nothing out of the ordinary. Back in December 2020, for example, it stayed above 1.5% per week for a whole month, and then again in February 2021.

Similar to the Fear and Greed indicator, this metric shows that buyers are getting overconfident as it surpasses 0.10% per eight-hour, but not necessarily an alarming level.

As long as buyers are confident that the rally will continue, paying a 1.5% or even 3% weekly fee won’t force them to close the leverage longs. For example, if a Bitcoin supply shortage on exchanges has caused the recent rally to $56,000 as holders accumulate, there might be room to $80,000 or higher.

However, a crash can be expected if some bearish events occur in the near future, such as exchange-traded fund requests being denied or some draconian United States ban on stablecoins. In such an event, Bitcoin will not breach the all-time high, and those backward-looking metrics will finally “work.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74030.8fa6d90a-0b5f-4c71-93ee-e5f62eb4f0b1.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:28914,shares:aj,tags:[{id:F,slug:eN,title:N,url:ew},{id:fL,slug:fM,title:fN,url:fO},{id:ar,slug:as,title:ae,url:at},{id:"2610",slug:"derivatives",title:"Derivatives",url:"/tags/derivatives"},{id:"7537",slug:"bitcoin-futures",title:"Bitcoin Futures",url:"/tags/bitcoin-futures"},{id:"8592",slug:"futures",title:"Futures",url:"/tags/futures"},{id:eO,slug:w,title:v,url:eP}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74030regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:fH,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"altcoin-roundup-dexs-come-to-the-rescue-after-china-bans-crypto",url:mG,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/altcoin-roundup-dexs-come-to-the-rescue-after-china-bans-crypto",title:hF,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:mI,datePublished:fR,dateHuman:fS,humanDateTime:"2021-10-08 22:35",dateISOFull:"2021-10-08T21:35:00+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:C,month:u,day:Z,hour:fT,minute:mQ,second:f,millisecond:f},categorySlug:w,categoryUrl:J,categoryName:v,authorName:hq,authorUrl:hr,authorAvatar:mi,previewText:mH,twitterLeadText:"China’s crypto ban may have rocked the market, but it also catalyzed a migration to DEXs and other web-3.0-based platforms",badgeSlug:fm,badgeName:v,fullText:"

Over the past few months, there have been some major developments coming out of China that have rocked the cryptocurrency market and the global financial markets. China’s Evergrande debt repayment crisis sent shockwaves throughout global equities markets, as well as the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC’s) consistent signaling of upcoming regulation for stablecoins and decentralized finance (DeFi) continued to weigh on sentiment within the market. 

While the Evergrande situation somewhat resolved itself, for the time being, the government crackdown on unregulated DeFi platforms and stablecoin transactions continues. This has resulted in cross-chain equipped layer-one protocols and layer-two solutions seeing increased volumes as traders search for non-centralized venues to interact with.

According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, after China announced a ban on all cryptocurrency transactions, major cryptocurrency exchanges like Huobi suspended services for accounts in mainland China.

This triggered an exodus of funds from Asia-based centralized exchanges (CEXs), and these funds were eventually deposited onto decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and the wider decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem.

It seems Huobi users moved $ETH, #stablecoins, and DEX tokens to decentralized exchanges like Uniswap.

Outflow transactions spiked after Huobi announced the suspension of existing accounts in mainland China.

Ironically, regulation led to decentralization this time. pic.twitter.com/EKpkHIdSv0

— Ki Young Ju 주기영 (@ki_young_ju) September 29, 2021 \n\n

This phenomenon is particularly interesting and requires further investigation, given the assumed failure of Ethereum’s London hard fork in addressing untenable gas fees and the regulatory concerns mounting over the U.S. and China’s response to cryptocurrencies.

Let’s take a look at some of the recent thriving DEXs and popular protocols that are seeing an increase in inflows.

The Ethereum network

The Ethereum network is by far the most dominant smart contract and it hosts the largest and most used decentralized exchanges like Uniswap (UNI) and SushiSwap (SUSHI), according to data from Dune Analytics.

Monthly DEX volume. Source: Dune Analytics

While the most recent cryptocurrency ban out of China dominated headlines in the last two weeks of September, the announcement was originally made on Sept. 3, around the same time that activity on Uniswap surged higher.

Uniswap trading volume vs. total revenue. Source: Token Terminal

As shown in the graph above, the spike in Uniswap’s activity and trading volume actually began on Aug. 28 and remained elevated above its previous average for the next couple of weeks.

Uniswap has also benefited from its recent integrations with the newly released layer-two solutions Optimism and Arbitrum, which helped to lower the transaction costs and speed up confirmation times for users on the network.

The Fantom network

The Fantom protocol has risen in prominence in recent months thanks to the launch of a bridge to the Ethereum network and a 370 million FTM developer incentive program designed to attract new projects to the Fantom ecosystem.

Data from Token Terminal shows that while the announcement of the incentive program on Aug. 30 provided an initial boost in protocol revenue and token price, it wasn’t until after the regulatory announcement from China on Sept. 3 that activity and protocol revenue really experienced a sustained increase.

Fantom price vs. protocol revenue. Source: Token Terminal

Fantom utilizes a directed acyclic graph architecture that enables a high throughput capability for near-zero fees, which has helped the protocol grow in popularity amongst DeFi and NFT traders who were priced out of conducting transactions on Ethereum.

SpookSwap and SpiritSwap are the two top DEXs on the Fantom network and together currently handle an average of $95 million in 24-hour trading volume.

Avalanche

The Avalanche network is a blockchain protocol that has been gaining traction since its mid-August launch of the Avalanche Rush liquidity mining incentive program, which includes more than $180 million worth of rewards and incentives designed to attract liquidity to the DeFi ecosystem on Avalanche.

Avalanche price vs. protocol revenue. Source: Token Terminal

Since the release of the incentive program in mid-August, the protocol revenue and token value for the native token AVAX have been on the rise as users transferred assets across-chain to engage in Avalanche’s growing DeFi ecosystem.

According to data from DefiLlama, the top DEXs on Avalanche are Trader Joe (JOE) and Pangolin (PNG), which combined currently see an average 24-hour trading volume of $355.2 million.

Decentralized perpetuals trading

Decentralized perpetuals trading protocol dYdX, which has exploded in popularity in September following the airdrop of its native DYDX token, has also seen an uptick in user activity and volumes.

According to data from Token Terminal, the daily trading volume on the exchange exploded in the final days of September, surging from an average below $2.1 billion to more than $9 billion on Sept. 27.

Total value locked on dYdX vs. trading volume. Source: Token Terminal

The regulatory crackdown has been especially hard on derivative and leveraged cryptocurrency exchanges like BitMEX and Binance, leading to an increase in demand for decentralized options like dYdX and Hegic.

While many across the cryptocurrency ecosystem lamented China’s crackdown on the crypto sector, their heavy-handedness may have actually turned out to be a blessing in disguise. It prompted traders to venture away from centralized exchanges and out into the rapidly expanding DeFi ecosystem where the ethos of decentralization and the ability to “be your own bank” is still available to those who seek it.

Want more information about trading and investing in crypto markets?

  • Polygon briefly overtakes Ethereum for active addresses after 330% surge
  • DeFi and DEX volumes soar amid China’s crypto ban and US regulatory risk
  • Derivatives DEX dYdX beats out Coinbase’s spot markets by volume amid China FUD
  • Altcoin roundup: There’s more to DeFi than just providing liquidity
  • Data shows parabolic-style growth in layer-two-based DeFi and DEX platforms

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n",audio:"https://s3.cointelegraph.com/audio/74002.ebcc38fc-3774-4ba1-8d92-42954421c579.mp3",facebookShares:d,twitterShares:d,linkedinShares:d,redditShares:d,views:9715,shares:nr,tags:[{id:F,slug:eN,title:N,url:ew},{id:eD,slug:eE,title:eF,url:eG},{id:ns,slug:"china",title:"China",url:"/tags/china"},{id:nt,slug:hL,title:_,url:gn},{id:"1298",slug:"bitcoin-regulation",title:"Bitcoin Regulation",url:"/tags/bitcoin-regulation"},{id:ar,slug:as,title:ae,url:at},{id:"2183",slug:"cryptocurrency-exchange",title:"Cryptocurrency Exchange",url:"/tags/cryptocurrency-exchange"},{id:"8428",slug:"decentralized-exchange",title:"Decentralized Exchange",url:"/tags/decentralized-exchange"},{id:eO,slug:w,title:v,url:eP},{id:mk,slug:ml,title:gf,url:gg},{id:nc,slug:nd,title:ne,url:nf}],topics:[],relatedPosts:[],trackingPixelUrl:"https://zoa.cointelegraph.com/pixel?postId=74002regionId=1",showShares:b,showStats:b,isNoIndex:a},{id:eM,isDeleted:a,isDisclaimerHidden:d,isSponsored:a,isPressRelease:a,isExplained:a,slug:"ethereum-risks-drop-below-3-2k-as-eth-price-faces-heavy-resistance",url:mJ,absoluteUrl:"https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-risks-drop-below-3-2k-as-eth-price-faces-heavy-resistance",title:hG,youtubeVideoIdCover:c,cover:mL,datePublished:fR,dateHuman:fS,humanDateTime:"2021-10-08 18:05",dateISOFull:"2021-10-08T17:05:00+01:00",publishedDateTimeObject:{year:C,month:u,day:Z,hour:nu,minute:E,second:f,millisecond:f},categorySlug:w,categoryUrl:J,categoryName:v,authorName:fk,authorUrl:fl,authorAvatar:fJ,previewText:mK,twitterLeadText:"Ethereum could drop to $3.2K in the coming sessions as ETH paints a Rising Wedge pattern.",badgeSlug:fm,badgeName:v,fullText:"

Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) is at risk of falling below $3,200 in the coming sessions as its rally comes face-to-face with a strong resistance zone.

In detail, the price of Ether swelled by almost 22% on a month-to-date timeframe in the wake of a market-wide price rally. That pushed the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization from under $3,000 to above $3,650 in the first eight days of October, triggering more bullish forecasts.

\"Six thousand dollars will happen fast; $10,000 is programmed,\" noted Twitter-based technical chartist Crypto Cactus. David Gokhshtein, CEO of distributed data network PAC Protocol, predicted a $10,000 upside target for Ether, as well.

Waiting for $ETH to cross $10,000 so the party can really get underway.

Side note: The only thing I’m thinking about is, how will the #NFT market react?

— David Gokhshtein (@davidgokhshtein) October 8, 2021 \n\n

But the price of Ether has the potential to ram into a confluence of three notable bearish indicators that could limit its upside moves and pare a portion of its recent gains.

Two resistance zones and a rising wedge

The three bearish indicators that could prompt Ether to undergo a bearish reversal are a rising wedge, a descending trendline resistance, and an interim resistance bar, as shown in the chart below.

ETH/USD 4H price chart featuring bearish confluence. Source: TradingView.com

A rising wedge surfaced as ETH rallied and left behind a sequence of higher highs and lower lows. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency's uptrend happened against decreasing volume, showing a lack of bullish conviction among traders. 

Additionally, the structure's apex—the point at which its two trendlines converge—is around two historical resistance zones. The first one is an interim resistance bar, as shown in the chart above, that previously called out ETH's top above $3,650.

At the same time, the second resistance is a descending trendline, visible more clearly in the daily chart below at around $3,800.

ETH/USD daily price chart showing the descending trendline resistance. Source: TradingView.com

As a result, the rising wedge's apex and the two resistance trendlines pose bearish reversal risks to Ether. Should it happen, the Ethereum token will crash by as much as the maximum height between the wedge's upper and lower trendlines.

Related: 3 factors that can send Ethereum price to 100% gains in Q4

That puts it en route to below $3,200, which served as an  accumulation zone for Ethereum traders in the first half of September 2021.

Activating inverse head and shoulder?

A drop towards or below $3,200 does not necessarily push Ether into a full-fledged bearish cycle. Conversely, it could trigger a bullish inverse head and shoulder setup.

ETH/USD 4H price chart featuring a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern. Source: TradingView.com

If the setup plays out as intended, traders' accumulation of ETH tokens will increase near $3,200, causing a rebound toward the neckline  area in the chart above. In doing so, the ETH price would place its inverse head and shoulder target at a length equal to the maximum distance between the pattern's neckline and bottom.

That would put Ether en route to new all-time highs of approximately $4,500.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.\n

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m",coinTradeVol:er,coinTradeVolFormatted:es,supply:et,supplyFormatted:eu}]},currencies:[{id:pR,name:k,sign:pS,value:gE},{id:pT,name:l,sign:pU,value:gN},{id:pV,name:m,sign:pW,value:gU},{id:pX,name:n,sign:gD,value:g_},{id:pY,name:o,sign:pZ,value:hc},{id:p_,name:p,sign:p$,value:he},{id:qa,name:q,sign:qb,value:hf},{id:qc,name:qd,sign:qe,value:hj},{id:qf,name:B,sign:gD,value:hm}],graphs:{}},types:{},user:{isAuthed:a,isAuthedBySocials:a,token:h,id:h,firstName:c,lastName:c,userName:c,avatar:c,email:c,description:c,userGaId:c,ipAddress:"51.15.130.90",analyticsData:[],sessionId:c},vendors:{isVendorsModalShown:a,info:{},localI18n:{}},viewport:{isWindowActive:b,viewportWidth:f,viewportHeight:f,scrollTop:f,scrollIsLocked:a,breakpoint:"XS",isOverlayVisible:a,userDeviceType:{apple:{phone:a,ipod:a,tablet:a,device:a},amazon:{phone:a,tablet:a,device:a},android:{phone:a,tablet:a,device:a},windows:{phone:a,tablet:a,device:a},other:{blackberry:a,blackberry10:a,opera:a,firefox:a,chrome:a,safari:a,device:a},any:a,phone:a,tablet:a},bottomZoneHeight:f}},serverRendered:b,routePath:hn}}(false,true,"",void 0,2,0,"_self",null,1,"default","USD","EUR","GBP","JPY","RUR","KRW","TRY","Language",3,4,10,"Market Analysis","market-analysis","en","es","1","2","CNY",2021,"23",5,"4","EOS","NEO",11,"/category/market-analysis","promo_button","18.87 m","7","Bitcoin","https://hitbtc.com/?ref_id=5cba0be404aa3","changelly-button","27","adbutler","xxs","xs","sm","md","lg","it","12",8,"Ethereum","22","https://changelly.com?utm_source=cointelegraphutm_medium=referralutm_campaign=changellyctengbuttonref_id=le9ssi8dgmskmqu0","hitbtc-button","article",6,"Markets","cointelegraph.com","es.cointelegraph.com","tr","Dogecoin",79,"bybit2-button","bbt","https://www.bybit.com/bit-launch-event?medium=paid_bannersource=cointelegraphchannel=mkt_campaign=bitcontent=en_button","8","9","13","1.00","2014","markets","/tags/markets","Cosmos","en.LanguageType.1","en.LanguageType.2","br","cointelegraph.com.br","pt-BR","Monero","Ripple","XRP","https://cointelegraph.us3.list-manage.com/subscribe/post-json?u=2c088712615955cd2f82aa968id=7376af3992","https://cointelegraph.us3.list-manage.com/subscribe/post-json?u=2c088712615955cd2f82aa968id=aad9f6b505","21","17","26",48,"/bitcoin-cash-price-index","/ltc-price-index","/xrp-price-index","/xmr-price-index","_blank",138,47,"en.LanguageType.23",50,"Note that all trading strategies are to be used at your own risk. Before trading, we recommend to make sure that you have a clear understanding of cryptocurrencies and how they are traded.",51,"BTC","/bitcoin-price","ETH","/ethereum-price","3","LTC","Litecoin","6","BCH","Bitcoin Cash","XMR","DASH","Dash","/dash-price-index","/eos-price-index","11","ZEC","Zcash","/zec-price-index","ADA","Cardano","/ada-price-index","/neo-price-index","14","TRX","TRON","/tron-price-index","15","BNB","Binance Coin","/binance-coin-price-index","16","XLM","Stellar","/stellar-price-index","USDT","Tether","/tether-price-index","18","MIOTA","IOTA","/iota-price-index","19","ONT","Ontology","/ontology-price-index","20","MKR","Maker","/maker-price-index","BSV","Bitcoin SV","/bsv-price-index","DOGE","/doge-price-index","ETC","Ethereum Classic","/etc-price-index","24","XTZ","Tezos","/xtz-price-index","XEM","NEM","/nem-price-index","USDC","USD Coin","/usdc-price-index","28","CRO","Crypto.com Coin","/crypto-com-price-index","29","ATOM","/cosmos-price-index","30","LEO","UNUS SED LEO","/leo-price-index","33.19 b","2.91 b","0.74","74081","2021-10-11",9,"Changelly",95,739455.73,"739.46 k",18841306,"18.84 m",5034265.28,"5.03 m",117890777.6865,"117.89 m",17451751.35,"17.45 m",84000000,"84.00 m",3591719951.1,"3.59 b",99990215169,"99.99 b",2185718.85,"2.19 m",18869950,778743.67,"778.74 k",18009523.60154992,"18.01 m",1269687.42,"1.27 m",10375612.12765522,"10.38 m",258564136.95,"258.56 m",1036450958.0087,"1.04 b",1448236.2,"1.45 m",12845275,"12.85 m",1171428867.44,"1.17 b",33250650235.236,"33.25 b",5400052.89,"5.40 m",100000000,"100.00 m",11335857705.7,"11.34 b",100850743811.662,"100.85 b",3534622.88,"3.53 m",168137036,"168.14 m",2165525113.2,"2.17 b",50001802732.348,"50.00 b",73904173749.5,"73.90 b",71385677464.96931,"71.39 b",208748927.36,"208.75 m",2779530283,"2.78 b",223378724.26,"223.38 m",1000000000,"1.00 b",42222.37,"42.22 k",991328.38195493,"991.33 k",2147683.45,"2.15 m",18866789.14423905,6453779143.37,"6.45 b",131651445235.33475,"131.65 b",15935674.2,"15.94 m",210700000,"210.70 m",65075032.62,"65.08 m",892096976.091074,"892.10 m",733919266.62,"733.92 m",8999999999,"9.00 b",2906045333.7,33189080639.65501,282119779.35,"282.12 m",30263013692,"30.26 b",15960693.92,"15.96 m",280559510.864785,"280.56 m",878052.57,"878.05 k",985239504,"985.24 m","74066","/tags/bitcoin","de","side","Y2hhbmdlbGx5LWJ1dHRvbg==","0.17","0.87","73874","72","cryptocurrencies","Cryptocurrencies","/tags/cryptocurrencies","altcoin","/tags/altcoin","it.cointelegraph.com","74061","74030","74008","bitcoin","9407","/tags/market-analysis",13,"103","Large devices"," 1200px","Medium devices"," 992px","Small tablets"," 768px","Smartphones"," 480px","Extra small devices","

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